goanet-digest Sunday, May 26 2002 Volume 01 : Number 4019
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
In this issue:
[Goanet] re: Induction & Confirmation (Santosh)
[Goanet] Viva Salazar.
[Goanet] NEWS: BJP has left Goa's finances in a mess -- Chennithala
See end of digest for information on subscribing/unsusbcribing.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Sun, 26 May 2002 08:08:59 -0700 (PDT)
From: "J. Almeida" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: [Goanet] re: Induction & Confirmation (Santosh)
Dear Santosh,
You write:
"Joel has repeatedly stated in this forum that good
Science proceeds
by refutation rather than by induction. This statement
is as false as
many of his other statements."
You are right, many of my statements are false:
probably
because I am merely human. I must say, in fairness,
that your statements are NOT invariably false. If I
take a
little light-hearted tone in the following text it is
not
because I lack the deepest respect for your talents.
It’s just that I don’t want everyone falling asleep or
bored to tears. Please accept my apologies in
advance, should I inadvertently appear disrespectful.
Those who have a little time might want to continue
reading. (This post is not related to the
elections in Goa).
You appear to rely on Gardner’s opinions of Nagel’s
opinions of Popper. Why not read Popper for
yourself and decide? Many Nobel Prize winners
claim that Popper transformed their approach to
science. I think you would increase your own
chances of winning a Nobel Prize by reading Popper.
You allege Popper was eccentric. Let’s pretend he
had three nostrils and liked to dance the polka while
listening to heavy metal music: how does that affect
the validity of his ideas? Gardner says that Popper’s
ideas are held by a small and noisy minority. Let’s
pretend that is true. So what? At one time most
people thought the earth was a flat disc. Gardner will
“get it” eventually, give him time. He does write for
the Skeptical Inquirer, which (on the basis of its
superficial information and shoddy logic here) I hope
is skeptical chiefly about its own views. However,
Gardner is not beyond hope: he is quoted as saying
in an interview that he believes in God in order to
escape deep despair. What a sensible man. That
opens his mind to the belief that (for most people)
enriches human life with meaning: God is Love and
those who dwell in Love dwell in God, and God in
them.
Let’s move on to the subject matter of induction, the
habit of generalizing from experience and
observation. All of us probably know of the
inductionist turkey. It was fed on Monday. It was
fed on Tuesday. It was fed on Wednesday, and so
on. It was not a stupid turkey. It confidently
expected to be fed on Christmas day. It had “no
evidence to suggest” that it would be roasted and
served up on Christmas day. Induction is inherently
unreliable. Don’t be an inductionist turkey. Seek
reality.
Try joining Einstein, Chandrasekhar, McFarlane
Burnet, Lederberg and many other Nobel prize
winners. Conjecture beyond the accumulated
experience and information and seek evidence which
could potentially falsify your own conjectures. That
is the reliable route to scientific advances:
conjecture
and attempted refutation.
There is a problem with “raw observation”. What the
mind does not conjecture about, the eye might well
not see. For example, those who have met many
stupid and ignorant dark-skinned people sometimes
use induction. They generalize to say, dogmatically:
ALL dark-skinned people are stupid and ignorant.
Their belief in this dogma is so strong that they seek
only confirmatory evidence, and find it in abundance.
They simply do not see, much less seek, contrary
evidence. “Induction and confirmation” are
inherently unreliable, they tend to close the mind to
reality, and tend to produce prejudices and dogmas:
even totalitarianism (read Popper for more on that).
There is a logical asymmetry between confirmation
and falsification. How many swans are required to
“confirm” the dogma: “ALL swans are white”? One
swan? One thousand? One billion? Now consider
falsification. How many black swans are required to
refute the dogma: “ALL swans are white”? One
black swan. Finding just one black swan is enough to
refute the dogma that ALL swans are white.
All inductionist “scientific” dogmas are all no more
than conjectures, ripe for refutation. Despite this,
the
pages of scientific journals are cluttered with
“me-too” articles, trying to confirm rather than
falsify important conjectures, seldom offering bold
new conjectures.
“There is no scientific evidence to suggest x” is
another giveaway mark of the dogmatic
inductionist/confirmationist. Consider the
thalidomide story. The drug thalidomide was
permitted for human use in Europe at a time when
there was little evidence suggesting serious adverse
effects. It was prescribed for morning sickness in
pregnant women. A rational scientist might have
been content with stating the estimated incidence
rate of adverse effects based on the evidence to date
(upper limit of statistical confidence interval).
Instead, thalidomide was permitted for use in Europe
as being safe, generalizing from “no scientific
evidence of adverse effects”. Disaster lurked around
the corner. Women treated with thalidomide gave
birth to babies with severely deformed limbs. It is
dangerous to generalize from necessarily limited
observations.
(Fortunately, the US Food and Drug Administration
refuses to generalize from experience, and keeps a
file indefinitely open on adverse effects of every
substance or device permitted for human use. It
constantly seeks evidence that could falsify the
hypothesis of drug/device safety.)
In closing I would say, be an inductionist turkey if
you like. But it’s not my fault if they roast you and
eat you. I’d much rather you concentrated on
winning the Nobel Prize. Why not join the many
rational scientists who have abandoned their faith in
induction, and adopted falsification: the process of
conjecture and refutation? I recommend that you be
a bit more skeptical about the views of the Skeptical
Inquirer; and open your mind further by reading
some Popper. Once again, let me emphasize that I
take the liberty of writing like this only because I
respect your talents. I am rather fond of fellow
Goans and particularly Goan scientists.
Regards,
Joel Almeida
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Yahoo! - Official partner of 2002 FIFA World Cup
http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 26 May 2002 15:13:17 +0000
From: "A. Veronica Fernandes" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: [Goanet] Viva Salazar.
VIVA SALAZAR.
The restriction imposed by Parrikar Government of showing Video Cassettes of
Gujarat Carnage in Goa is unacceptable. I condemn it. By banning such
films it looks Salazar is reborn in Goa. Where are all the freedom fighters
who were fighting against Salazarist regime gone? How they can accept Goan
Salazar in the form of Parrikar? During Portuguese time the censorship
imposed by Salazarist regime was opposed by the freedom loving Goans but now
how they accept Video Film censorship imposed by Parrikar? By following the
dictats of Salazar Parrikar is hailing Salazar. By doing what Salazar was
doing in Goa before 1961 Parrikar is praising Salazar, by imposing
restriction on showing Video Film of Gujarat carnage Parrikar is raising
Salazar to the pedestal and shortly as a follower of Salazar, Parrikar and
his BJP in Goa will give a slogan "VIVA SALAZAR".
It is not only Gujarat cassettes but if necessary human rights activist
Goans must also show the Video cassettes of Congress initiated carnage of
Sikh community in the aftermath of Indira Gandhi killing. This carnage was
done with the silent nod of Rajiv Gandhi while in Gurajat the carnage was
done with the open nod of Modi. To hell with these leaders leading India
once again to disintegrate on the communal lines. By showing these
cassettes let people know what cruelties Congress have done against Sikh
community. To hell with this criminal congress and all its followers.
If it is possible people should show the Video Cassettes of the demolition
of Babri Masjid by BJP so that Goan voters will know the true colours of BJP
and how communal it is. If yesterday Babri Masjid of Muslims then tomorrow
it will be the Churches and Chapels of Christians. Oh Francis Desouza of
Mapusa, take note of it. To hell with you for contesting on BJP ticket.
You are worst than atheist George Fernandes. People from Mapusa
constituency without any reservation must destroy Desouza in the coming
election and Mapusa Voters are really secular and sensible people then they
will not give votes to BJP candidate.
If Video Cassettes are totally prohibitted I am sure many of the
intellectuals in Goa will have the books in their showcases written soon
after the lifting of emergency, these books were written by great writers on
the excesses of emergency by Indira's Congress, in these books one will know
the worst cruelties done by Congressmen some of these cruelties are worst
than what we see today. The best book written during that time was by
Kuldeep Naiar "The Judgement". I am sure some of the people in Goa will
have the copies of this book. The best thing during these critical time is
to make photocopy of the relevant pages of this book and distribute to the
people so that Voters in Goa will know what dirty game Congress played
during that time. If comes back to power again Congress will do worst acts
in Goa. Let the fabricks of Congress be exposed thru the above exposure.
A. Veronica Fernandes
Kuwait.
_________________________________________________________________
Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: http://messenger.msn.com
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 26 May 2002 20:58:49 +0530 (IST)
From: Frederick Noronha <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: [Goanet] NEWS: BJP has left Goa's finances in a mess -- Chennithala
10 QUESTIONS: BJP HAS LEFT GOA'S FINANCES IN A MESS -- CHENNITHALA
Ramesh Chennithala (46) was Kerala's youngest legislator at 25, has been in
parliament for four terms, and this former NSUI (Congress student front)
leader is now AICC secretary with with independent charge of seven states
and Goa.
Sitting in Room 104 -- the Congress 'Press Centre' at the International
Centre -- Chennithala directs operations. He tells candidates' aides not to
"waste time" as he sends them off to meet different persons.
His statement "this is not a Rotary Club election" indicates the
importance of Goa 2002 to his party. He speaks to FREDERICK NORONHA
explaining the Congress perspective before a critical poll:
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
FN: The general perception is that Congress observers made off with a lot of
bags (facing insinuations of corruption in ticket allocation). Your comment?
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm very sorry to say that this kind of a (propaganda) campaign is going on.
I don't understand why. Basically the candidate's selection was done by
local leaders.
We are here -- incidentally, I'm a here as an AICC secretary, not an
observer -- to coordinate and help. We consider (local leaders') reports.
Without the local leadership's opinion nothing has been done.
There was an election committee, where all local leaders were invited. The
screening committee too. On the Central Election Committee, the PCC
president and the CLP head were also present.
Observers gave their views on certain key constituencies. Without the local
leadership's approval, no selection has been done.
In each constituency there are three (or more) candidates. We can select
only one winnable candidates. The other two (hopefuls) will naturally
allege. That has become a practise.
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
FN: So you're saying no money was involved in the ticket-selection process?
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nothing. These are all... I'm very pained to say. This is a very unfortunate
thing. Who is going to pay money? For what? It is very easy to make an
allegation. If anybody has any proof, let them come and talk to us. We will
take action.
We had gone to so many states. Here the people are going to the press, and
allegations are coming. It is very unfortunate to cast aspersions like this.
I can say it about you also. That we have given money to (put out) good
news.
This is not going to help anyone....
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
FN: The BJP's plank is good governance, a clean and stable government...
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
BJP cannot talk about defections. They engineered defections, and Parrikar
is the father of defections. This government is itself a baby of defections.
They had not got any mandate to rule Goa. They engineered defections with
the help of the Union government. Moreover, they've given a ticket to
someone who has defected eight times!
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
FN: What about stability?
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
They've not given any stability. In sixteen months, Manohar Parrikar himself
dissolved assembly. This election is the contribution of Mr. Parrikar. Talk
of a clean government is all bogus. Ministers performed with a lot of
corruption.
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
FN: We've had an election forced on Goa probably without even a proper
Cabinet decision. Even to other controversial actions of the BJP government,
the Congress has been slow to react. Your comment?
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
On the day of the dissolution itself, our MLAs went to the Governor and
Speaker. All means we tried. We attempted our level best. We were not slow.
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
FN: Congress has foisted the same old faces that have been dominating state
politics for two decades and more. Doesn't Goa deserve change? Isn't the
party willing to take the risks apart from these individuals, some of whom
are badly discredited by now?
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
That's your opinion as a journalist. They are not discredited. They are good
candidates. They're going to win the elections. In fact, we've given 8-9 new
faces, if not more.
(Another Congress observer, former union home minister of state Subodh Kant
Sahai, interrupts to argue: "When they go to the BJP they're good. But when
they come back to the mother party they're bad people. Is that so?")
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
FN: What was the three best things Congress can claim to have done while in
power in Goa for 17 years in Goa?
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stability, statehood, and whatever development that can be seen in Goa is
the contribution of the Congress party. Under Congress rule only was Goa
prosperous. Right from Pandit Nehru onwards, to Indira Gandhi and Rajiv
Gandhi, Special care and attention was given to Goa.
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
FN: Okay then, what were the three worst things of Congress rule in Goa?
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
We learnt a lot of lessons. Now, we will have to keep our flock together.
We will not allow defections to take place. That is Number 1.
Number 2 is we will have more and more party-oriented programmes. The hold
of the Congress party (on the government) is less here. I would like to have
a strong and vibrant party (set-up) which can control legislators. This is
needed for them to be more committed to the party and to avoid frequent
changes (defections).
The third is further development activity with total transparency.
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
FN: Corruption is obviously a big concern for Goa. Which ever party is in
power. What do you'll plan to do on this?
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
Corruption has become a cancer in society. Not only in Goa, but in the whole
of politics and society. Even in the field of defence, whether it's Kargil
(the coffin scam, etc) or Tehelka.
There should be an effective mechanism to weed out corruption. Total
transparency in activity is needed. People should know what's happening. I
was an advocate for that, while a minister in Kerala. Why should we hide
what's happening? Everything should be known, and parliament should be
watchdogs.
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
FN: What's your prediction on the polls?
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------
Congress will get an absolute majority. We're going to form the government.
BJP will not cross double-digits. This election will prove BJP is not a
factor in Goa. BJP never won in this state.
For 16 months, they've done nothing except starting projects that were just
started and not followed up. Financially, everything is a mess. If our
government comes, it will have a difficult time to run the state (finances).
------------------------------
End of goanet-digest V1 #4019
*****************************
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=--W-E-B--S-I-T-E--=-=-=
To Subscribe/Unsubscribe from GoaNet Digest | http://goacom.com/goanet
======================================================================
* Send e=mail to [EMAIL PROTECTED] (NOT [EMAIL PROTECTED])
* Leave SUBJECT blank <--- Commom Mistake !!
* On first line of the BODY of your message, type:
subscribe goanet-digest YOUR.EMAIL
OR unsubscribe goanet-digest YOUR.EMAIL
DO NOT include the entire digest when replying to goanet !!!!!!
Questions/Problems? Contact: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
