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Go to economist.com/audio on the web and listen to the author of the latest
article on India.
Does the booming Indian stock market (actually crashing now) reflect a
sustainable growth trajectory for India ? The economy = spending. Spending =
jobs Where are the jobs and where are the right fit candidates ?
Where is the big Indian boom supposedly having its main impact. In IT/BPO.
How many does this sector employ ? About 1.3 million out of a workforce of 400
million.The IT/BPO workforce will increase to 2.1 million by 2010 according to
McKinsey/Nasscom projections. India is already running short of suitable
IT/BPO talent. MckInsey-Nasscom predicts shortage of 500,000 capable graduates
by 2010.Costs are rising. Satyam expects to raise wages 18-19% this year.
The 1.3 million workers are for the time being at least splurging out their
2-3 lakh because they are relatively young, with no dependents. The ripple
effect of 1.3 million workers spending $ 10 billion in wages on
cars/bikes/clothes/coffee bars and other frivolities and the multiplier
thereof is being felt all around.
With India lacking adequate trained English speaking talent the Economist
states that the huge future employment opportunity will have to come from
manual labour intensive industries. Can India compete here with China ?
And here is the butt end of it all - a story how India is speeding ahead.
Vineet Aggarwal of the Transport Corporation of India explains in the
Economist the typical jouney of a truck journey between two great metro
cities of India. Calcutta and Mumbai. This distance of 2,150 km takes 7 nights
at an average speed of 11km per hour (yes 11 km/hr) and 32 hours spent waiting
at toll booths and check points.
India has a long way to go. And to paraphrase the cynic - the living will
surely get worse before it gets better - Unless one selfishly believes that an
Ipod in the ears, plasma TV in the living room and an occassional barista
coffee means that all's well for the nation.
Go to doingbusiness.org/Economy rankings. In a ranking of 155 countries by
ease of doing business in 2006, the World Bank and IFC ranks India at 116, two
places below Iraq, 56 below Pakistan and 25 below China. In part this reflects
the huger disparities between individual states and the way they are ruled.
Uttar Pradesh has 170m plus people. Some 60% of increase in India's population
between now and 2050- the "demographic dividend" that is raising such big
hopes - will come in UP and 3 other northern states with rotten infastructure,
education and governance.
We need to constantly remind ourselves of these harsh realities when faced
with the euphoria of India "rocking". We cannot and should not ignore or
overlook the masses of the stinking poor who in India threaten to overwhelm
the minority of the perfumed 150 million middle and upper class having
discretionary income.
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