It was bound to happen but it needn't have taken the turn it has. Like the Eastern Provinces of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain has a majority Shia population living under a minority Sunni ruling family.
These Shias are all Arabic speaking Iranians from their west coast like the Abadan area who emigrated to and settled in the Gulf countries generations ago as traders with Indian buyers and exporters connections. They have no political ambitions and desire nothing more than to trade and prosper. The Bahraini government recognized this, gave them citizenship and saw their country prosper because of them. While Saudi Arabia had vast oil assets, Bahrain's advantage was merely its strategic location and its trading ability. It tried to be an offshore banking centre in in 1970s but that came to nought when Dubai overtook it. The Bahraini Shias are modern, their thinking progressive and their women almost western, like Iranian women during the Shah of Iran's time. During the Arab Spring young Bahraini men saw an opportunity to seek a more liberal treatment from the ruling Al-Khaifah family who never gave them the rights they deserved due to their population numbers. They took to the streets but demonstrated peacefully and it was easy to give them some sops that would have satisfied and quietened them. They were not after all asking for control of their destiny or of the hitherto peaceful island. This might have happened if the ruling family had not panicked and asked big bro Saudi Arabia for help in quelling the disturbances. Like in Yemen, SA came to Bahrain with a heavy hand. It was not so much coming to the aid of a Gulf Cooperation member as it was exerting their pre-eminence in the area and warning off Iran from taking advantage. Though Iran has always been looking for an entry into Gulf matters, the area being on its doorstep, what really drives the ayatollahs in Tehran is their hatred of the Sunni infidels whom they see as persecutors of their Shia populations. The Shia rebels in Bahrain want little to do with their guardians in Iran but the Sunni rulers in the Gulf don't believe this to be true. That is what happens when you have a mortal enemy. You see his hand even when it is absent. The latest news is that Bahrain has stripped one of its Ayatollahs of Bahraini citizenship. This is a big trigger for escalation of the conflict. It may well be the straw that breaks the camel's back. Even the US which has a naval base on the island has seen the lack of wisdom of doing this. Not because they prize the stability of Bahrain, but because they see the unfolding events may lead to the closing down of their base if the Al Khalifahs are eventually overthrown and democracy of numbers, in this case the Shias is ushered in. Bahrain is a beautiful island, full of history and Indian trade connection. The rulers were once very much pro-Indian and early on, from the 1940s, Bahrain was a mecca for Goans in search of good jobs, in banking, oil and associated services and in telecommunications, mainly with Intenational Aer-radio and Cable & Wireless. The island was known for its liberal rules and alcohol laws and Goan, Mangalorean and Catholic clubs flourished in such an atmosphere. In its diversity, Goans enjoyed prosperity and comfort for many years. It will always hold a special place in Goan hearts. Roland Francis 416-453-3371
