Kindly publish my friend article. Thanks Stephen Dias =============================
AN ANALYSIS OF ASSEMBLY POLLS ELVIDIO MIRANDA Despite lower expectations, the BJP due to the late `bull run' of the military votes as well as doing well in the postal ballot for poll personnel and the police force in attendance for the election duty, could actually muster a better performance. This trend may be heightened by the large turnout of the women voters and as such the Griha Aadhar effect could play a major role in BJP prospects. The mining dependent votes could also play a major role in favour or against the BJP in the mining areas The Laadli Laxmi factor could also be significant in bolstering the BJP prospects and thus all-in-all the social security schemes could bail out the BJP to a position of just being able to form the next government. Although the MGP vote went against the BJP, this time to a certain extent, the GSM factor seems to have had little impact. In the bargain, the splitting of the `secular vote' between the Congress and the AAP could in this election of slender margins help the BJP cause. As far as the prospects of the Congress is concerned, the party is definitely set to perform better than the last elections, however their chances may see a decline due to the voters having opted out for the Aam Aadmi party. Rebellion within the party is another reason why they may not be in a position to form the next government. What is pertinent is that unlike in the 2012 assembly elections when they polled 30 percent of the popular vote as against 35 percent of the BJP, the winning percentage of the popular vote could be better this time, subject to the factor of splitting of votes due to multi-cornered contests. The Aam Aadmi Party which is contesting its maiden Assembly elections and also in 39 seats, the most by any party, they started promisingly but seemed to lack the `killer punch' in the end and thus this factor could dent their prospects. However, they can be credited with having done a marvelous campaign and thus barring some upsets, they may have performed quite well. This is an acid test for the AAP who had a very people-centric and sustained campaigning all through. The Aam Aadmi Party has on their debut issued Magic Cards, which guaranteed voters that the promises made were to be kept, an assurance that no other party in Goa has ever attempted or done. Aam Aadmi Party is banking on the silent voters, which percentage was a substantial amount. Aam Aadmi contended that these silent voters were scared to identify with them, they being a new outfit. The MGP though with the support of the GSM held promise but may not have been able to sustain their campaign though they concentrated in 25 constituencies only, a more focused approach. In this case the MGP with alliance of the GSM, much will depend on the efficacy of the GSM's diktat on the Medium of Instruction to make the MGP perform better. The oldest party in Goa have much to prove if they are to be taken seriously and be given the tag of major contenders. Their prospects too hinges on the fact that slim margins may lead to be in their favour, and thus perform better. Select independent candidates who win this time will have a very important role to play. Half a dozen of them are bound for a first podium finish and the independents will form a major part of the government forming process and thus bargaining for crucial portfolios. The Goa Forward Party, the Nationalist Congress Party will also open their accounts as well as a seat for the Goa Su-Raj Party. However all said, on the 11th March, 2017 when counting is taken up it will be the 40 candidates who have polled the majority votes, who will constitute the next Assembly.