https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIGO%2F2018%2F11%2F05&entity=Ar01002&sk=63B202C9&mode=text
The writing is on the wall, but not for you to read it. At an event sponsored by the British Commercial Association in Macau, the analyst Grant Govertsen said “the Indian government has asked casinos to build integrated resorts in Goa…gambling operators who did not enter Macau, when the game was liberalized at the beginning of the millennium do not want to miss the boat in Goa, and want to bet on what might be the next Macau. We expect Goa to quickly become a US$ 1 billion market, from $150 million today, as it transitions to land-based casinos.” Govertsen’s comments fit into what has long been rumored in Goa. Huge swathes of the land acquired from small-holding farmers for the ostensible Mopa “second airport” project will be repurposed for casinos. The goal is not to reduce or control the impact of gambling that has already gravely hurt the state’s family-friendly tourism brand, instead it is the pernicious images associated with gambling that will dominate even further. Already today, arriving passengers at Dabolim airport are assailed on all sides by casino advertising, as though there is nothing better to do in the state. Imagine Mopa, where the airport itself is going to be mere portal directly to the roulette table. What does “the next Macau” mean in practical terms? One crucial aspect is overwhelming waves of migration. The locals become uncomfortable and move, and then the floodgates open. According to the last reliable census, 60% of Macau residents were born elsewhere. But that number doesn’t include many thousands of temporary workers, none of whom are natives. It is entirely possible to spend days in Macau without ever once encountering someone who is Macanese. Everything is overwhelmingly Cantonese Chinese, most especially the casinos. It is true we are not yet at the point of blanket erasure of the Goans in Goa, but here it is important to remember just how quickly it happened in Macau. Just like the new millennium was the tipping point for Goa in the global tourism sweepstakes, the same time period transformed everything for Macau. Right up to that point, gambling existed but under a monopoly. Then in 2002, the government granted three (later six) concessions, including giant international operators like Wynn Resorts and Las Vegas Sands. Looking back, the stated goal to become “the Las Vegas of Asia” seems laughably naïve. That’s because it took just one decade for gambling receipts to outstrip that of the American gambling capital, by some accounts by as much as 500%. Casinos comprehensively took over Macau’s identity and image, as is now on the cards for Goa. Beyond the numbers and the money, it’s useful to remember the extensive seedy side that casinos brought to Macau. Above all is prostitution, which is legal and flourishes everywhere after sunset. The trade is heavily controlled by Chinese organized crime groups, which have themselves thrived in the gambling-dominated economy. These triads are believed to each have thousands of members, and dominate certain sectors of casino-related activities. According to the risk mitigation expert Steve Vickers, even now in 2018, “triads still dominate VIP gaming rooms in the city, and they now have extensive networks with mainland officials, junkets, high rollers, investors and criminals.” Will this happen in “the next Macau” which is India’s smallest state? The answer lies in the way all previous dominant revenue-generating sectors of the economy have seized control of the government, and made state authority suppliant to massive illegalities. In fact, this has already happened with casinos, which have induced the most absurd and embarrassing series of reversals and broken promises over the past few years, even by the poor standards of Goa politics. If that has been extremely bad, what is on the cards now is the full nightmare scenario. Be very afraid.