https://www.heraldgoa.in/Edit/Adeus-amcho-Ant%C3%B3nio-Costa/213497
The final analysis is yet to be written, but we already know that António Costa’s shock resignation earlier this week brought an end to one of the most impressive political innings of the 21st century. When this master politician of Goan origin first emerged centre-stage in 2007 as the mayor of Lisbon, his country Portugal was an economic basket case scorned as ‘the new sick man of Europe’. First, he turned the capital into one of the world’s most desirable cities to live, winning ever-bigger mandates in 2009 and 2013. Then, in 2015, he manoeuvred directly into the prime minister’s office, adroitly slashing public debt to foster the greatest growth in many decades, and becoming one of the most admired world leaders, including firm friends with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who proudly gave his counterpart an Overseas Citizenship of India card. Last year, after his Socialists won an outright majority, it only underlined his dominance. Nothing will tarnish this distinguished record of achievement, no matter what happens in the case which triggered his departure. Costa resignation followed his chief of staff being arrested, and many public buildings – including the ministries for environment and infrastructure - raided by the State prosecutor’s office, which says it is investigating corruption and influence peddling associated with ‘the use of the prime minister’s name and his involvement’ in lithium mine concessions and lucrative new plans for a green hydrogen plant and data centre. All these are vast EU investments which the prime minister was pushing hard to secure for Portugal, and he chose to resign immediately because ‘the dignity of the prime minister’s office is not compatible with any suspicion on his integrity, good conduct, and even less so with the suspicion that any criminal acts were committed.’ Tearing up, the still-popular PM declared “I want to say, eye to eye to the Portuguese, that no illicit or even reprehensible act weighs on my conscience [however] I am not above the law, and I totally trust the justice system.” Nonetheless, “this is a phase of my life that comes to an end.” What happens next is somewhat opaque. The investigation will run its course, and we are likely to find out what evidence exists – if any – that Costa did indeed break the law. But the truth is he’s been angling to quit for some time now anyway, and was already the European socialist parties’ top candidate for EC president next November (when the incumbent has to quit). That might still happen, if Portugal’s courts move with unaccustomed alacrity, but in the meanwhile we are already seeing a rightist swing that could well deprive his Socialists their current comfortable majority in the elections being called in March 2024. Interestingly, for the first time since he was greeted in Lisbon as ‘Gandhi’ many years ago, there’s also a distinct uptick in outright racism aimed at Costa as well as other Goans, who have risen into the Portuguese elite. Just yesterday, a poster was making the rounds on social media listing 16 people with roots in India’s smallest State who represent ‘an invasion of the blood, a robbery of wealth, an assault on our thoughts.’ To learn more about this sudden crisis in Portuguese politics, I spoke with Constantino Xavier, the remarkable 42-year-old India-Europe bridge figure and Fellow of the Centre for Social and Economic Progress in New Delhi, who immediately gave me an astute analysis: “many African countries fell prey to the resource curse in recent decades, with an excessive focus on oil and other primary products. Sri Lanka recently fell prey to what I call the connectivity curse, with massive external investments in the infrastructure sector, including ports and airports. The political crisis in Lisbon is based on a wide range of corruption scandals in the new energy and technology sectors, including on lithium, hydrogen and a data centre: this may indicate a new type of economic curse for smaller countries such as Portugal, with declining industrial and manufacturing capacity, and therefore prone to sudden spurts of foreign investment in these new, critical and frontier sectors of the global economy." What will happen to relations between our two countries, since the enthusiastic Modi-Costa bromance is curtains? Xavier says “Costa’s Indian origin and personal connect with Modi was one, but not the main reason of the upswing in Portugal-India ties in recent years. Portugal is keen to diversify away from its focus on Chinese investments, especially in strategic sectors such as energy. And India is keen to engage with smaller European countries to find new export markets and political support for its quest to reform multilateral institutions. Both these drivers will remain, even without Costa leading from Lisbon, and Portugal and India will keep converging. Jaishankar’s trip to Lisbon this month shows that there is progress on several fronts, including a focus on triangular cooperation in Africa, especially Mozambique, where India has growing interests." To get some more perspective, I also reached out to Rahool Pai Panandiker, the Managing Director and Senior Partner of Boston Consulting Group in Mumbai, who has been the sole person of Indian origin on the Portuguese Diaspora Council (under the aegis of the President of Portugal and that country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs) since 2014. He told me that “António Costa, while still with impressive popularity numbers, has seen a significant dwindling of his support in the past 12 months. His government has been criticized on the economic front, and its policies for education and health care reforms, among others. The other key issue has been the spate of ‘scandals’ and ‘incidents’ involving many of the members of his cabinet. His handling of some of these has taken the sheen of his brilliance and positioning as a true statesman.” Panandiker says “one of the biggest achievements is the way Costa managed a coalition government in his first term and then, despite an absolute majority, found middle ground on many tricky issues. This is a formidable template that counters the ‘rise of the strongman’ narrative that is building up in many democracies. His ability to move the country forward, while working with seemingly disparate coalition partners, negotiating with all the stakeholders in society, walking the tight-rope and getting things done has been admirable.” It’s an impressive legacy, combined with unusual personal attributes: “the way in which António Costa managed to wear his Goan-ness and Indian-ness on his sleeve, both at home and in the international arena, and yet be a core Portuguese politician appealing to the masses; both these avatars in harmony, in a microcosm, captures the essence of the man and the persona.”