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Ninguém desmentiu você. E mesmo assim quase 150 bi
já faz uma diferença e tanto. Mesmo assim é muito dinheiro pra não estar
circulando.
Carlos Antônio.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, April 19, 2006 4:08 PM
Subject: RES: [gl-L] Jabor: Quanto mais bater, mais ele cresce
(artigo com final preocupante)
Tá bom eu errei
..
Em
vez de um trilhão eram só 854 bilhoes
Falha
nossa
Como
tem gente entendida em economia aqui na lista.....
Eu li mas vou ter que
reler.
Mas realmente, mesmo como reserva é muita grana
pra manter em caixa.
O Paulo contaminou o Cardoso?
Ihhhhhhhhhh...isso vai render....
Economics
By David
Cohen
China's Huge Currency Reserves Pique
U.S. Interest
Senators are taking the Middle
Kingdom at its word that it intends to move gradually toward a more flexible
exchange rate regime
Just how big can
China get? For one thing, it looks as
if the Middle Kingdom may now have greater foreign-currency reserves than any
other country. On Mar. 28, the state-run China Business News reported that the
mainland's reserves hit $854 billion in February, outstripping
Japan's reported stockpile of $850
billion.
Although China's central bank declined to
comment on the report, it's sure to push the mainland's currency policies even
further into the spotlight. After all, China's swelling foreign reserves are a direct
by-product of all those sneakers, DVD players, and bedroom sets that consumers
worldwide -- and especially in the U.S. -- can't resist buying. One
reason they look so attractive is their low price, something many in the
U.S. blame on an undervalued yuan.
That served as the focus of the visit to
Beijing last week by U.S. Senators
Charles Schumer and Lindsey Graham. The pair is proposing a 27.5% tariff on all
Chinese exports to the U.S.,
and has threatened to force a vote on the issue in the Senate by Mar. 31 unless
Beijing starts
to allow the yuan to move toward its real market
value. Currently, the yuan trades at around 8.0275 bid
vs. dollar.
PROMISED FLEXIBILITY. Against
the backdrop of a record U.S. trade deficit -- the U.S. bought $202 billion more
from China than it sold to the mainland last year -- the dollar-yuan exchange rate will be much discussed during the lead-up
to Chinese President Hu Jintao's April visit to Washington. The release, also in
April, of the semiannual report from the U.S. Treasury on
the currency policies of trading partners will also occupy people's minds. It
could potentially label China a "currency manipulator," which
would lead to tariffs on Chinese goods.
China moved to a
managed float last July, revaluing the dollar-yuan
rate by 2.1% on abandoning a decade-long peg to the
greenback. Beijing has promised to move gradually toward greater flexibility,
but has allowed the yuan to appreciate only about 1.1%
vs. the dollar since then, and has ruled out another one-off revaluation.
Officials insist they need more time to establish the foreign-exchange
market infrastructure after they launched, in January, over-the-counter trading
by 13 foreign and domestic banks designated as market makers. The central bank,
the People's Bank of China (PBoC), has also begun to conductforeign-exchange swaps with major commercial banks.
GOOD COP, BAD COP. The
U.S. is demanding that
Beijing speed
the process. Washington argues that the appreciation since
last July remains insufficient. The senators were reasonably diplomatic --
Schumer emphasized that they were not looking for a timetable or specific goal,
but wanted to be convinced that China is moving toward letting the
currency float. And Graham indicated that they came away with a better
sensitivity to China's problems, such as
unemployment. Though still noncommittal, they hinted that any vote on the bill
would be delayed for at least a month, until after Hu's visit.
No doubt, a good deal of posturing
continues to go on. Although opposed to the protectionist tariff, President Bush
presumably does not mind playing the good cop, bad cop game in an effort to
wrangle some concessions from Beijing -- a stance that ironically takes on added
credibility after the Dubai fiasco (you see, President Hu, I would veto the bill, but Congress would override it).
Furthermore, this is just one part of a multidimensional trade negotiation with
a host of other prominent issues on the agenda, including intellectual property
protection.
Along with many economists who oppose protectionism,
numerous business leaders have expressed concerns about the proposed tariff,
emphasizing the importance of world trade to the U.S. economy.
Congress must be aware of the structural problems in the savings-short
U.S. economy -- and how a tariff
might derail what has been a fairly healthy economic expansion financed with
foreign capital.
MORE MOVEMENT. Though it
is difficult to foresee how the politics will play out in this election year, we
at Action Economics
remain hopeful that cooler heads will prevail, taking the Chinese at their word
that they fully intend to move gradually toward a more flexible exchange-rate
regime, including efforts to phase out convertibility restrictions on the
capital account over the next five years.
China is
proceeding at its own pace in permitting more movement in response to market
forces. The PBoC has pursued foreign-exchange
intervention to limit yuan appreciation in the face of
a widening current account surplus and continued strong capital inflows,
reflected in the buildup in international reserves. The increase by $34.8
billion during the first two months of 2006 was in line with the annual
increases of $209 billion for 2005 and $207 billion in 2004 (exceeding the
accumulation by Japan, which hasn't intervened in
currency markets for the past two years).
Upon abandoning the formal peg
to the dollar last year, Beijing indicated that it would reference
movement in the yuan against an unspecified basket of
currencies. When measured against these currencies weighted by their share of
total Chinese trade, the yuan has trended sideways for
much of this year, hardly the sort of appreciation that would put a dent in its
balance-of-payments surplus. This compares with the appreciation by
approximately 8.5% during 2005, over half of which came on the back of the
strong performance by the dollar, which also appreciated vs. the Chinese basket
of currencies.
RECENT VOLATILITY.
Throughout the period, the yuan index is seen moving
in tandem with the dollar index (the green curve, which roughly parallels the
dollar index compiled by the Atlanta Fed). This reflects how, except for the
revaluation last July, the dollar-yuan exchange rate
has been fairly steady day-to-day. This includes the constraint of the daily
limit set by Beijing of plus or minus 0.3% in fluctuations
in dollar-yuan, compared to the previous closing
exchange rate announced daily by the PBoC.
The
dollar-yuan has exhibited a bit more volatility during
the past four weeks, a period when the dollar has been on a roller coaster vs.
major currencies. Although some of the bigger daily gains in the yuan had market watchers wondering whether Beijing was
relaxing its grip a bit to appease the U.S. Senators, on closer inspection it
appeared that some of these bigger moves had come on days of big swings in the
dollar in worldwide markets -- when Beijing might have tolerated more movement
in dollar-yuan to limit the swing vs. the overall
basket.
Our projection would be for Chinese officials to tolerate
continued gradual appreciation of approximately 5% over the course of 2006,
after finishing with 2.6% appreciation vs. the dollar during 2005. This is
hardly as dramatic as the 50%-plus appreciation of the Japanese yen after the
1985 Plaza Accord. There is no need to widen the daily trading band -- by simply
allowing the full 0.3% per trading day, the yuan could
appreciate by around 20% during a single quarter. Beijing appears content to continue the current
policy of gradual currency appreciation.
POSSIBLE
COMPROMISE. U.S.
policymakers must recognize that China does not respond well to
threats. At the end of the day, Beijing's speed of currency adjustment will
depend upon what risks officials see from continuation of the current
trajectory, and perceived benefits from stepping out of the way a bit more.
For example, would it be prudent to reduce exposure to international
reserves so concentrated in dollar assets? Can potential difficulties in
sterilization of foreign-exchange intervention compromise the PBoC's ability to conduct independent monetary policy? There
are also benefits from currency appreciation in lowering import prices.
Conditions are favorable for pursuing greater flexibility given that the
Chinese economy remains quite strong. The consensus outlook is for annual GDP
growth to continue near 9% in 2006 after 9.9% in 2005, presumably able to
withstand the disruptive impact of a strengthening currency. Maybe Beijing will proceed at a pace sufficient to satisfy the
U.S. Congress.
---
Não leve nada pro lado pessoal. Apenas divirta-se.
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