Why Russia evacuated its naval base in Syria

Now that Russian ships can stop in Cyprus, having personnel in Syria isn't
worth the risk.

By Fred Weir <http://www.csmonitor.com/About/Staff/Fred-Weir>, Correspondent
 / June 27, 2013

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2013/0627/Why-Russia-evacuated-its-naval-base-in-Syria?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+feeds%2Fcsm+(Christian+Science+Monitor+%7C+All+Stories)

MOSCOW

In a surprise move, Russia <http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Russia> has
pulled all its military and nondiplomatic civilian personnel out
ofSyria<http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Syria>.
That includes a complete evacuation of the naval supply station in the
Mediterranean port of Tartus, which is often discussed as one of Russia's
key 
reasons<http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2012/0629/What-is-Russia-thinking-on-Syria-A-brief-guide>
for
its long and stubborn support of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad.

   - 
<http://www.csmonitor.com/Photo-Galleries/In-Pictures/Crisis-Continues-in-Syria?nav=692643-csm_article-leftColRelated>
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Syria<http://www.csmonitor.com/Photo-Galleries/In-Pictures/Crisis-Continues-in-Syria?nav=692643-csm_article-leftColRelated>

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"We have neither servicemen nor civilians in Syria anymore. Or Russian
military instructors assigned to units of the Syrian regular Army, for that
matter," a Russian defense ministry spokesperson is quoted as telling the
Moscow <http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Moscow> business daily
Vedomosti yesterday.

The Tartus naval supply station, Russia's only military base outside the
former USSR, has been effectively closed, Russian deputy foreign minister
and specialMiddle East <http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Middle+East> envoy
Mikhail Bogdanov confirmed in an interview with a Turkish newspaper. He
insisted that the base, which housed about 70 fulltime military technicians
to service visiting Russian warships, was of no strategic importance to
Russia.

RECOMMENDED: What is Russia thinking on Syria? A brief
guide<http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2012/0629/What-is-Russia-thinking-on-Syria-A-brief-guide/Russians-take-sovereignty-seriously-sort-of?nav=692643-csm_article-promoLink>

"It's just a technical facility for maintaining ships sailing in the
Mediterranean," he said.

That answer seems a trifle inadequate. The obvious question is: Why abandon
Tartus now, given that the Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean has
never been so 
large<http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-News/2013/0103/Russia-plans-biggest-war-games-since-Soviet-era>
?

Earlier this month Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia
will maintain a permanent naval flotilla in the
region<http://news.yahoo.com/russia-announces-permanent-mediterranean-naval-presence-183449025.html>
for
the first time since the collapse of the USSR more than 20 years ago. "This
is a strategically important region and we have tasks to carry out there to
provide for the national security of the Russian Federation," he said.

The Russian Navy has been holding almost nonstop maneuvers in the eastern
Mediterranean<http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2012/0711/Moscow-sends-warships-to-Syria-war-games-or-evacuation>
for
more than a year, and currently has a 16-warship task force in the area.

"The first and likeliest reason for the closure is that Russia doesn't want
to risk the lives of 70 military personnel stationed at Tartus," says
Vladimir Sotnikov, expert with the official Institute of Oriental Studies
in Moscow.

"Now that the battlefield initiative in Syria's civil war is in the hands
of the Assad regime, Russia might fear some [rebel] provocations against
our people. Another possible reason may be to help promote the Geneva-2
talks<http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2013/0521/Russian-confidence-growing-in-its-vision-for-ending-Syrian-war>.
We have information that Russia, the United Nations and the US have agreed
to a format for the talks. So, perhaps Russia wants to dispel impression
that its position is based on some desire to hold on to this station," Mr.
Sotnikov says.

"In any case, Russian ships have the opportunity to go to Cyprus for
supplies and maintenance, and it's safer for them to do so right now," he
adds.

Russia has also been steadily evacuating the estimated 30,000 Russian
citizens living in
Syria<http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2013/0122/Start-of-something-big-Russia-pulls-a-hundred-citizens-from-Syria.-video>
since
early this year, and yesterday the Ministry of Emergency Services reported
that it hadextracted another 130 Russians from
Latakia<http://en.rian.ru/russia/20130626/181877527/Russian-Aircraft-Evacuates-Some-130-People-from-Syria.html>
in
northwest Syria and flown them back to Russia.

Other Russian analysts agree that, whatever the reasons for Russia's
personnel pullout, it probably doesn't signal any change of the hard,
pro-Assad position that Mr. Putin most recently reiterated at last week's
G8 
summit<http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2013/0618/G7-plus-one-Isolated-Russia-holds-line-on-Syria>
in
Northern Ireland.

"Russia's position hasn't changed. In fact it's getting tougher," says
Sergei Strokan, a foreign affairs columnist with the pro-business Moscow
daily Kommersant.

"The reasons behind this evacuation probably come down to security. That
base's importance has been greatly overrated in Western reporting. It just
isn't that big a deal. So, I guess the thinking is, why risk some major
incident that the rebels might stage by attacking Russians at this
sensitive moment when all the hopes are pinned on a new Geneva peace
conference?"



-- 
Peace Is Doable

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