[In the process of unfolding developments, the contours of a few aspects of the emerging realities are getting firmed up.
One, the annexation of Crimea by Russia looks irreversible. Kiev, by itself, is militarily too puny; and its Western backers don't appear to have the stomach or appetite for a military confrontation with Russia over Crimea while economic and diplomatic sanctions against Russia are just not going to make it transfer Crimea back. (Not that a military confrontation, given its likely disastrous consequences, would at all make any sense.) Two, Kiev itself is irreversibly moving away from the Russian orbit, notwithstanding its complex web of ties with Russia; the process, however, is not going to be smooth and easy, for that very reason. And, the loss of Crimea has actually added to the momentum of this drift. Three, the situations in Southern and Eastern Ukraine will continue to be fluid, in fact volatile, for days to come - if not, months and years - even if Russia apparently no longer has the stomach or motivation to raise its level of intervention.] I/III. http://english.pravda.ru/news/russia/27-05-2014/127664-russia_crimea_ukraine-0/#.U4WJmnKSz3E Russia not giving Crimea back to Ukraine ever 27.05.2014 | Source: Pravda.Ru <http://english.pravda.ru/> Russia is not going to give the Crimea back to Ukraine after the election of the new head of state, Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov said. "The Crimea is a region of the Russian Federation, so the question of its entry into Ukraine is not being discussed," said Peskov. The official also said that he did not know whether whether the Russian president was going to congratulate the newly elected president of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko. "Earlier, the President clearly stated its position and specified what scenario would have been best from his perspective. Nevertheless, the elections have been held as they were held, and Vladimir Putin's position has not changed, it remains the same," said the presidential spokesman. On Monday, the leader of the presidential election campaign Petro Poroshenko announced his intention to sue Russia over the Crimea. The agreement about the inclusion of the Crimea in the structure of the Russian Federation as a new entity was signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and representatives of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. Later, the Ukrainian authorities and a number of Western countries said that they would not recognize the Crimea as a part of Russia. I II/III. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/ukraine-leaving-cis-shoots-down-kremlins-imperial-ambitions/501001.html Ukraine Leaving CIS Shoots Down Kremlin's Imperial Ambitions - By Alexey Eremenko<http://www.themoscowtimes.com/sitemap/authors/407220.html> - May. 27 2014 21:07 - Last edited 21:08 People walk near a board displaying the Ukrainian coat of arms in Kiev May 27, 2014. Ukraine's announcement Tuesday that it is quitting the Commonwealth of Independent States would be the last nail in the coffin of the Kremlin's Moscow-centered integration project built on the bones of the Soviet Union, analysts said. Ukraine's Foreign Ministry has filed paperwork on the country's departure from the CIS with the country's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, acting ministry head Andrii Deshchytsia said, Itar-Tass reported. Ukraine's newly elected President Petro Poroshenko had not commented on the matter as of this story's publication. Russia has alternative integration schemes for the post-Soviet space, but in the absence of Ukraine, they are likely to remain opportunistic alliances whose members -- mostly Central Asian nations -- would be looking for Russian money but not strategic affiliation with Moscow, experts said. "For a thinking man, a neo-Soviet Union without Ukraine is nonsense," said independent political analyst Sergei Shelin. However, Ukraine may yet backtrack on its decision to leave, given that it is party to numerous collective treaties with the CIS, said Konstantin Zatulin of the pro-government Institute of CIS Countries in Moscow. The insurgency-plagued Ukraine, which had been due to chair the CIS throughout this year, resigned the chairmanship in March, shortly after Russia annexed Ukraine's pro-Russian Crimea Peninsula. Deputy Foreign Minister Vasily Nebenzya said in April that quitting the CIS would void 223 collective treaties Kiev has signed since the bloc's inception in 1991. The list is mostly low-level deals, but also includes a labor agreement that allows thousands of Ukrainians to work in Russia. Ukraine is part of the free-trade zone deal also ratified by Belarus and Russia, Ukraine's biggest trade partner with a bilateral turnover of $39 billion in 2013, according to official statistics. Moscow has already attempted a "customs war" with Ukraine earlier this year, tightening import rules, and has threatened to cancel the free trade regime altogether. But Ukraine is edging toward integration with the European Union, which could offset the short-term losses. Visa-free travel could be introduced by the year's end, and a free-trade regime has already been de-facto installed. Departure from the bloc is a protracted bureaucratic procedure. Georgia, the only nation to have left the bloc, spent a year going through the formalities from 2008 to 2009. Tbilisi took care to replace collective treaties with new deals when it quit the CIS, but Moscow was and remains under no obligation to support that, Zatulin said. 'Civilized Divorce' Completed The main intended function of the CIS was, however, geopolitical -- not economic or humanitarian -- integration, and in this respect the bloc, by near-universal admission, has failed. Even President Vladimir Putin conceded in 2005 that the CIS was only a form of "civilized divorce" for former Soviet states. The bloc has been politically inactive for years, and its disintegration was sealed by the Russian-Georgian war of 2008, which it did nothing to prevent, said Alexei Malashenko of the Carnegie Moscow Center. Without Ukraine, the CIS is likely to be either mothballed or disbanded altogether, depending on what best suits Russia's interests, Malashenko said. "Ukraine's departure from the CIS means nothing for the bloc because the organization has been dead for a long time," quipped analyst Shelin. Zatulin, a former lawmaker known for his pro-Kremlin stance, said the CIS may ramp up its integration work without Ukraine, which he said had always obstructed its operations. But even he conceded that "a member's departure from a regional bloc is never good news for the rest of the members." With the departure of Ukraine, the bloc's second most populous nation, the CIS would be down to nine members, compared to 15 republics that comprised the Soviet Union. In addition to Russia, the list includes two European states -- authoritarian Belarus and tiny, impoverished Moldova -- as well as the South Caucasus' sworn geopolitical enemies Armenia and Azerbaijan, and four Central Asian states, including the rising regional power Kazakhstan. The current crisis in relations with Kiev arose in spite of Moscow's titanic attempts to keep it within Russia's sphere of influence and prevent its EU integration drive, Shelin said. The Russian effort failed despite economic arm-twisting, political pressure, offers of lavish subsidies and even military intervention in Crimea, he said. Wary of the Empire The Kremlin has launched a fresh reintegration drive for the ex-Soviet space in recent years with new blocs, including the Moscow-based Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, to which other countries were cordially invited. Armenia said last September it would join the Customs Union, and Kyrgyzstan indicated interest. But former Soviet republics still remain cautious of such projects for various reasons, both Shelin and Malashenko said. Belarus has been playing Russia for years, extracting economic concessions for token integration moves, Malashenko said. Kazakhstan is currently afraid of spoiling relations with Russia, fearing Moscow could lay claims to its northern provinces with predominantly Russian populations -- just as it did in Ukraine, Shelin said. Armenia, which is heavily dependent on Russian arms supplies, had no alternative but to join Moscow's integration projects, while the remaining countries, including Kyrgyzstan, simply expect more economic support from Russia, he said. Some support for reintegration exists across the Soviet Union, Malashenko conceded. But it is not nearly enough to fuel the recreation of the Communist empire, he said. "This is shaping into an Asia-oriented alliance where everybody expects material benefits from Russia, which would struggle to feed them all," Shelin said. III. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/05/deadly-fighting-rages-over-ukrainian-airport-2014527133427274996.html Ukraine army 'in control' of Donetsk airport Government says airport recaptured after clashes with pro-Russian separatists left at least 48 dead. Last updated: 28 May 2014 00:19 Ukraine says it has recaptured the airport in the eastern city of Donetsk after a day of air strikes and fierce gun battles with pro-Moscow separatists that left at least 48 people, including two civilians, dead. "The airport is under our full control. The enemy suffered heavy losses. We have none," Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said in a statement on Tuesday. He said, however, that the military was continuing its operation at the airport and AFP journalists reported hearing sporadic gunfire and explosions during the day. According to Interfax-Ukraine, the Ukrainian State Aviation Service has said the airport will stay closed until the evening of May 28. The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) also reported that it had lost contact with a four-member observer team based in the restive city since Monday evening. The battle for the main transport hub in Ukraine's industrial heartland erupted on Monday just hours after president-elect Petro Poroshenko vowed to take a tough stand against the "terrorists". Russian President Vladimir Putin immediately called on Ukraine to end its "punitive" operation in the rebel-held east and for talks between Kiev and the pro-Russian separatists. The bodies of 30 pro-Russian rebels have been brought to a hospital, according to separatist sources. A rebel fighter told the Associated Press that a lorry carrying the bodies was still parked outside the hospital, waiting for explosives experts to check it for any unexploded ordnance. Al Jazeera's Jacky Rowland, reporting from Kiev, said the fighting had been the most intense since the victory of Poroshenko. "Now we are seeing a concerted and focused operation," Rowland said, adding that Poroshenko's "very convincing victory" has given the "mandate to take decisive action". Poroshenko is set to meet US President Barack Obama when the American leader visits Europe from June 3 to 6. *'Disbelief and shock'* Al Jazeera's John Wendle, reporting from Donetsk, said: "After last night's fight, a feeling of disbelief and shock seems to be building as an expectant atmosphere takes hold with people waiting for the next move by the armed sides." On Monday the armed separatists seized the international airport in Donetsk, prompting a closure. Later in the day they came under attack from Ukrainian security forces. Plumes of black smoke rose in the air. The city mayor went on television advising residents to stay at home. President-elect Poroshenko has pledged to negotiate a peaceful end to the pro-Russian uprising in the east, where rebels have seized government offices and fought Ukrainian troops for more than a month. Yet Poroshenko described the separatists as "Somali pirates", saying that arms should be used against "killers and terrorists", but he also indicated that he wanted a quick end to the military operation in the east. "The anti-terrorist operation cannot and should not last two or three months," he said. "It should and will last hours." The latest developments imperils an initiative by Poroshenko and Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, to hold a dialogue and resolve the Ukrainian crisis diplomatically. Lavrov said on Monday that a dialogue was only possible if Ukraine refrained from cracking down on pro-Russian separatists. -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. 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