[Briefly, the gap the opposition must bridge is wide (an 8% deficit in vote share in the 2012 assembly polls), and there are questions about Congress’s ability to translate disaffection into support for itself. It does not have the party structure or resources to match BJP and there are little towns where people look blank when asked for directions to the Congress office. Still, there are pockets such as Surat, where sections of the Patel and other communities are seriously contemplating abandoning BJP. Yet, for all the discomfort from recent economic changes, a large section of Gujarat is also ideologically committed to Hindutva combined with a near adoration of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The sitting chief minister has hardly registered on the electorate’s consciousness, as revealed in an election tour that touched four districts. ... What is noteworthy is that on the eve of becoming Congress president, Rahul Gandhi has shown the gumption to put up a genuine fight in the Modi lair. The campaign is fresher, sharper than other recent Rahul outings. Congress would like to posit it is about youth and change in a state where a generation has grown knowing only BJP rule. Still, it’s hard to imagine a serious breach of the Great Wall of BJP.]
https://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/et-commentary/the-restive-citadel-but-as-gujarat-elections-near-its-hard-to-imagine-a-breach-in-bjps-fortress/ The restive citadel: But as Gujarat elections near, it’s hard to imagine a breach in BJP’s fortress November 17, 2017, 2:05 AM IST Saba Naqvi in ET Commentary | Edit Page, India, politics | TOI A noisy panchayat meeting has just ended in a village in Gujarat’s Mehsana district. It is dominated by Patels and it swiftly becomes clear that sarpanch Dinesh Patel is annoyed at the talk of his community supporting either Hardik Patel or Congress. In a room that has a picture of BR Ambedkar on the wall, he speaks passionately about nationhood as defined by Narendra Modi. We have built Gujarat with Narendrabhai who is now building India, he says, there may be some problems but we are part of a great enterprise. Ujwal Patel, who works as a software engineer in Ahmedabad, says that all of them have attended one year of RSS shakhas and fundamentally believe in Hindu unity. Current economic problems, in his view, are a small matter in the larger enterprise. At another Patel village a few kilometres down the road, young men are loitering. Yes they attended Hardik Patel rallies, yes they have many problems but in the end they will either not vote or vote BJP. That could only change if Congress really picks up momentum in rural seats – most urban seats in India’s most urbanised state are safe for BJP – and appears to project strong Patel leaders. So one may well ask if there is really a contest or just some election noise in BJP’s fortress? There are genuine tales of disenchantment (low MSP for crops in rural parts, GST in urban parts) but, equally, on the ground one also encounters belief in the inevitability of BJP returning to power. Illustration: Uday Deb Briefly, the gap the opposition must bridge is wide (an 8% deficit in vote share in the 2012 assembly polls), and there are questions about Congress’s ability to translate disaffection into support for itself. It does not have the party structure or resources to match BJP and there are little towns where people look blank when asked for directions to the Congress office. Still, there are pockets such as Surat, where sections of the Patel and other communities are seriously contemplating abandoning BJP. Yet, for all the discomfort from recent economic changes, a large section of Gujarat is also ideologically committed to Hindutva combined with a near adoration of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The sitting chief minister has hardly registered on the electorate’s consciousness, as revealed in an election tour that touched four districts. Towards the end of the campaign that will peak in December, both the personality and the ideology pitch will be taken to feverish heights. Modi campaigns in Gujarat have traditionally inspired cult like devotion. As chief minister he would attack the ‘Delhi Sultanate’ and now that he sits on the throne, it would be interesting to see how the rhetoric proceeds as Gujarati subnationalism can no longer be pitted against the Centre. Yet the CM turned PM has the advantage of power both in state and Centre. Given the sheer scale of the challenge and the fact that it has been out of power for two decades in Gujarat, Congress must be congratulated for actually putting up a fight and coming up with a strategy. In past state elections it had no narrative of its own and just tiptoed around the Modi persona. This time it is offering a caste plus community arithmetic besides the projection of a more articulate Rahul Gandhi (along with the young caste leaders who have emerged in Gujarat). What is noteworthy is that on the eve of becoming Congress president, Rahul Gandhi has shown the gumption to put up a genuine fight in the Modi lair. The campaign is fresher, sharper than other recent Rahul outings. Congress would like to posit it is about youth and change in a state where a generation has grown knowing only BJP rule. Still, it’s hard to imagine a serious breach of the Great Wall of BJP. For BJP, calibrating the message is part of the arsenal and misdirection an old tactic. On the one hand they need to reiterate that they would return to power as people do prefer voting for winners. At the same time they need to indicate an adequate challenge to get cadre and ideologically motivated voters out on polling day. Hence a dual message is being put out, the idea being to get voters out during a period of economic disenchantment. Ideally, BJP would like to hype the contest in order to ultimately present a modest victory as a crushing defeat of the opposition, in order to enter 2018 on a victorious note. The Patels, just 15% of the population, matter more than their numbers as they are a vocal community that’s shored up the BJP reign. The irony is that the Patels powered strong anti-reservation stir in the state in the late 80s targeting Congress; now it comes full circle with a section of the community demanding reservation for itself. Beyond the politics, there is a serious point to be made about trivialising of our reservation policy and the irony in the demand to be ‘backward’. There are three broad indicators – social backwardness, educational backwardness and unemployment – relative to other communities that are used by backward caste commissions to extend the benefits of reservation. The Patidars are just too ‘forward’ on all fronts to be backward. They are the empowered community of Gujarat unlike the Dalits and Muslims, who prefer to avoid questions about their voting preferences. -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to greenyouth+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send an email to greenyouth@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/greenyouth. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
