[The decisive victory of the Modi-led BJP in the 2014 general election was built around the following four main narratives. I. There'd be an immediate and decisive end to revolting high-level corruption. Anna Hazare led agitation helped to make the issue of governmental corruption one engaging keen national attention. II. Black money stashed abroad, and also stacked within, would be brought back to the benefit of the ordinary Indians. III. "Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas" - the venerated "Gujarat model of development", would be actualised nationwide. The era of "policy paralysis" would be put to an end. IV. Incitement to the hatred of the inimical and threatening "others", greatly aided by the preceding episode of gory Muzaffarnagar violence.
This time round: I. Modi has, if nothing else, lost his sheen as an anti-corruption warrior. Particularly, in the wake of the ongoing Rafale scam. II. No black money has been unearthed and put to benefit the poor. III. The performance on the economic development front is, at best, lacklustre. The issue of joblessnes is engaging popular attention. Agrarian distress and farmers' woes have turned into a very major issue. Gujarat model of development: What is that!? IV. The politics of "hate" has become far more ubiquitous than ever before. The appeal to the "aspirational India", that had been one of the foremost players during the last poll campaign, has hardly any taker this time. It's certainly a saga of disappointment and heartbreak. (For a detailed factual account, pls. look up: 'Modi’s Report Card: Evaluating NDA’s Flagship Programmes In The Run-Up To 2019 Elections' at < https://factchecker.in/modis-report-card-evaluating-ndas-flagship-programmes-in-the-run-up-to-2019-elections/ >.) <<Nostalgia for a Hindu golden age, high-growth aspirations and a razzmatazz Mr Fixit personality cult drew the middle class irresistibly towards Modi in 2014. Yet over the last four years, the rise of an old-style command and control economy, 1970s-type centralised government and slowing growth has sat uncomfortably with that well-projected image, creating many jilted lovers among erstwhile middle class adorers. The love affair between Modi and the middle class has gone sour. The romance began with his famous 2013 speech at Delhi’s Shri Ram College of Commerce in which the then Gujarat CM spelt out his vision for a turbo-charged economy through a business-oriented, Hindutva-laced blitzkrieg. That glitzy dream has petered out with rampaging joblessness and a return to that creaky device of Old India: the caste quota. The quota is decidedly non-aspirational — sign of a shrinking rather than expanding economic pie. >From projecting hope and aspiration in 2014, the Modi persona today projects povertarianism and victimhood. The ‘outsider’ who promised to bring down the old Lutyens’ elite identified with a scam-ridden UPA, has turned into the all-too-familiar votebank-focused neta.>> (Excerpted from sl. no. I. below.)] I/II. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/bloody-mary/why-the-urban-middle-class-is-falling-out-of-love-with-modi/?fbclid=IwAR2yt7lRFKbnCvjz13DcatQA2moLIxyutX5DuCIlycSS-RTtqAHNwvxcdAg Why the urban middle class is falling out of love with Modi January 20, 2019, 2:27 AM IST Sagarika Ghose in Bloody Mary | India, politics | TOI Last week, a photograph of PM Narendra Modi with top Bollywood stars went viral. Perhaps the photo sought to remind people that despite what the doomsayers may say Modi still retains his aspirational celebrity image, an image which has always been central to the ‘neo middle class’ or the newly affluent and urbanised. Nostalgia for a Hindu golden age, high-growth aspirations and a razzmatazz Mr Fixit personality cult drew the middle class irresistibly towards Modi in 2014. Yet over the last four years, the rise of an old-style command and control economy, 1970s-type centralised government and slowing growth has sat uncomfortably with that well-projected image, creating many jilted lovers among erstwhile middle class adorers. The love affair between Modi and the middle class has gone sour. The romance began with his famous 2013 speech at Delhi’s Shri Ram College of Commerce in which the then Gujarat CM spelt out his vision for a turbo-charged economy through a business-oriented, Hindutva-laced blitzkrieg. That glitzy dream has petered out with rampaging joblessness and a return to that creaky device of Old India: the caste quota. The quota is decidedly non-aspirational — sign of a shrinking rather than expanding economic pie. >From projecting hope and aspiration in 2014, the Modi persona today projects povertarianism and victimhood. The ‘outsider’ who promised to bring down the old Lutyens’ elite identified with a scam-ridden UPA, has turned into the all-too-familiar votebank-focused neta. The Modi slogan of ‘minimum government, maximum governance’ has been turned on its head. Far from evoking the Hindu Ram Rajya — a state that upheld justice but did not interfere in trade and business — the last four years have seen massive state intervention in the economy through cattle trade bans, demonetisation, attacks on businesses by street fighters loyal to government ideology and an imperiously imposed GST. After the 2016 notebandi shock, the middle class found its cash being criminalised and small businesses nearly crippled. The CMIE (Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy) recently estimated a loss of 11 million jobs in 2018. The middle class tends to have a high degree of anxiety about its economic future unlike the super-rich who don’t need to worry about incomes and can afford to wallow in Vedic Age fantasies. State violence against citizens has increased. Sedition cases have been slapped, NGOs have been raided, activists jailed under harsh laws, and ideological enemies dubbed “urban naxals” or “anti-nationals”. The promised war on corruption has not yielded votes in urban areas. Congress president Rahul Gandhi is yet to establish the money trail in the Rafale deal but the repeated chorus of ‘chowkidar chor hai’ has forced the PM into reactive mode, having to summon up an entire ministerial battalion to defend his government. Even though the charge of corruption may not stick, cronyism has given the opposition a talking point. As defaulters Vijay Mallya and Nirav Modi have fled under the watch of the chowkidar government, the promise of sending all scam tainted to jail too has unravelled. Middle class approbation is unpredictable. In 2009, Manmohan Singh and ‘Manmohanomics’ swept urban middle class areas buoyed by the Indo-US nuclear deal. Just five years later the same middle class turfed him out. The middle class revels in Hindu nostalgia when it involves a feel-good, Bollywood-style, return-to-roots fiesta. But when the Hindutva campaign leads to repeated violations of law and order or attacks on livelihoods, leading to even the murder of a police officer (in Bulandshahr), the pleasure trip begins to fade. In the recent assembly polls, urban support for the BJP declined everywhere. The same SRCC where the clarion call for New India was once sounded has today invited for its keynote address former CBI chief Alok Verma, a trenchant Modi critic. Social media, once a saffron domain, is now evenly balanced with memes and videos lampooning the PM and the government. The top-grossing Simmba, starring selfie taker Ranveer Singh, is a far bigger hit than The Accidental Prime Minister, an attempted expose of the Manmohan years, which failed to excite urban audiences. The ruling party’s machinations to topple the opposition government in Karnataka have come a cropper. None other than the Shiv Sena, an ally, has taken up the ‘chowkidar chor hai’ cry. Middle-class heroes Manmohan Singh and V P Singh blazed brightly when they first appeared on the scene, but the romance quickly turned sour because the middle class is quick to become disillusioned. Modi as a populist nationalist may still be neta number one when contrasted with a dynastical Congress ancien regime, but the ‘hero’ of 2014 has been put on notice: India’s fickle middle class falls in love quickly, but falls out of love equally quickly. II. https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/across-the-aisle-taking-stock-at-beginning-of-year-5546643/?fbclid=IwAR0b0cZLzwmvDLGBw6e3WEkxEAbpventikWO6L6OQxjfiGlQPXa7sIqMvN0 Across the aisle: Taking stock at beginning of year Four months from today, a new government will be in office (according to the people’s verdict). Nothing that the present government will do between now and April 30 will alter the state of the economy radically. Written by P Chidambaram | Updated: January 20, 2019 2:01:34 am The government did not meet the targeted fiscal deficit (FD) last year and is unlikely to meet the target of 3.3 per cent in 2018-19. (Representational) The Christmas-New Year-Pongal/Sankranthi holidays and festivities must have rejuvenated the hard-working people of India (except members of Parliament who were called to work during many of those days!). A new year effectively began on January 15. I have a hunch that the year will mark a turning point for the polity and the economy of the country. Four months from today, a new government will be in office (according to the people’s verdict). Nothing that the present government will do between now and April 30 will alter the state of the economy radically. Hence, the position at the beginning of 2019 is likely to be the position when the next government takes office. So, let’s take stock of the economy. Fiscal Stability The two most commonly used indicators are worrisome. The government did not meet the targeted fiscal deficit (FD) last year and is unlikely to meet the target of 3.3 per cent in 2018-19. It is apparently falling short on net direct tax collection and the Centre’s share of GST. It hopes to garner some money by dipping into the GST compensation reserve, by faux-disinvestment and by ‘persuading’ the governor of the RBI to part with Rs 23,000 crore as interim dividend. The current account deficit (CAD) is a lost battle. As against a CAD of 1.9 per cent of GDP in 2017-18, it will certainly be between 2.5 and 3.0 per cent in 2018-19. Merchandise exports in December grew by only 0.34 per cent, imports declined by 2.44 per cent, yet the trade deficit was USD 13.08 billion. The next fiscal year will start with more debt and less foreign exchange reserves. Low Growth Rate Demonetisation was on November 8, 2016, in the third quarter of 2016-17. In the eleven quarters ending December 2016, the rate of growth of GDP had been 7.7 per cent. The rate of growth in the subsequent seven quarters ending September 2018 declined to 6.8 per cent. In the first half of 2018-19, the rate was 7.6 per cent but the CSO has estimated that in the second half it will decline to 7 per cent. The low growth rate is because of the low investment rate, especially by the private sector. In the last three years, the rate of Gross Fixed Capital Formation has been stagnant at 28.5 per cent, and it will be about the same in 2018-19. The low growth rate is the main cause of lack of new jobs. If we believe the CMIE numbers, there is not only growing joblessness, 11 million jobs were lost in 2018. The current unemployment rate is 7.3 per cent. Farm Sector Distress Every indicator of the agriculture sector underlines the distress faced by farmers. The sectoral growth rate in the four NDA years has been -0.2, 0.6, 6.3 and 3.4 per cent. The Economic Survey 2017-18 admitted that, after four years, ‘the level of real agricultural GDP and real agricultural incomes has remained constant’. The anguished cry of the farmers reflects the reality: wholesale prices of farm produce are depressed (latest example is onion); MSP is a chimera and not available to most farmers; the crop insurance scheme has robbed farmers and enriched the insurance companies; MGNREGA is no longer demand-driven and is underfunded; gross capital formation in agriculture was -14.6 per cent in 2015-16 and rose by 14.0 per cent in 2016-17, meaning that it remained at the level of 2014-15; mounting debt has crippled farmers, making farm loan waiver an imperative; and the average monthly income of a farmer household of Rs 8,931captures their poverty. Industry and Exports The way to become a middle-income developed country is through industrialisation. Agriculture cannot sustain 45 per cent of the work force; nor can it be the main source of livelihood for 60 per cent of the population. It is industry and exports that will create jobs. Both are languishing today. The Index of Industrial Production has remained between 122.6 in April 2018 and 126.4 in November 2018. Approximately 927 projects are stalled, of which 674 are in the private sector. According to the CMIE, investment intentions have declined from Rs 25,32,177 crore in 2010-11 to Rs 10,80,974 crore in 2017-18. It seems that as far as the industry sector is concerned, banks are unwilling to lend and promoters are unwilling to borrow. Since April-June 2016, credit growth to industry has been appallingly low. It was negative in four successive quarters and crossed 2 per cent only in two of the ten quarters. The performance of exports is worse. Merchandise exports have not crossed USD 311 billion in any of the NDA’s four years. Relative to the peak of USD 315 billion in 2013-14, the growth rate has been negative. Among the worst hit during this period are the two job-creating sectors of ‘textiles & allied products’ and ‘gems & jewellery’. How the World Views India The world has recognised India’s potential but is dismayed by the current state of the economy. In 2018-19, up to January, FPI and FII have pulled out Rs 94,259 crore, divided almost equally between equity and debt. The sovereign bond rate on December 31, 2018, was 7.3 per cent. Evidently, the boast of ‘fastest growing economy’ has few takers in the rest of the world. We place our hope and trust in the government that the people will elect in May 2019. -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to greenyouth+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send an email to greenyouth@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/greenyouth. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
