Friends,

Sorry.
In the text below, a small portion between "(11, 12)" and "(13)" appears
garbled.
The corresponding clear text -- covering a somewhat longer portion -- is:
"The Vogtle nuclear plant being built in  the state of Georgia, involving
two AP1000 reactors designed  to generate around 1,100 megawatts of
electricity each, is  currently estimated to cost nearly $35 billion
(11,12). In 2011,  when the utility building the reactor sought permission
from  the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, it projected a total cost  of $14
billion, and “in-service dates of 2016 and 2017” for the  two units (13)."

Sukla

On Fri, Apr 7, 2023, 08:33 Sukla Sen <sukla....@gmail.com> wrote:

>
> https://engage.aps.org/fps/resources/newsletters/april-2023#Articles
> Infeasible: Nuclear Energy as a solution to Climate Change
>
> *M. V. Ramana, Professor and Simons Chair in Disarmament, Global and Human
> Security, School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, University of British
> Columbia, m.v.ram...@ubc.ca <m.v.ram...@ubc.ca>*
>
> Nuclear energy reached a major landmark in 2021. Its share of the total
> electrical energy generated globally declined to below 10 percent, 9.8
> percent to be precise (1). That fraction is lower than it has been since at
> least 1985, and around 45 percent lower than its peak in 1996, when nuclear
> energy provided 17.5 percent of worldwide electricity fed into the grid.
> The declining trend has been continuous and will likely continue.
>
> The declining trend might seem odd given all the talk one hears about
> nuclear energy undergoing yet another "renaissance" or "resurgence" (2–4).
> Although such claims were always questionable (5–7), they have propelled
> enormous amounts of public and private capital going into nuclear power.
> Further, this trend would seem doubly odd in the face of high-profile
> assertions about the inevitability of nuclear energy to mitigating carbon
> emissions (8–10).
>
> The key reason for the decline in the share of nuclear power is
> economical: generating power with nuclear reactors is costly compared with
> other low-carbon sources of energy, and the gap is widening. The second
> reason for this decline is the very long time it takes to build a nuclear
> reactor.
>
> Combined, these two trends imply that nuclear energy will not help solve
> climate change. For nuclear energy to play a significant role in mitigating
> climate change, its share of the electrical energy produced around the
> world has to necessarily increase, as fossil fuels are replaced by uranium.
> And the shift has to occur rapidly. Nuclear energy is simply not up to this
> challenge.
>
> There is a separate and well-known set of reasons about why nuclear power
> is not a desirable way to even trying to mitigate climate change: the
> unavoidable risk of severe accidents, the inextricable connection to
> nuclear weapons proliferation, and the inevitable production of hazardous
> radioactive waste. Since nuclear power is incapable of contributing
> significantly to mitigating climate change, expanding nuclear energy and
> exacerbating these undesirable outcomes makes no sense.
>
> The economics of nuclear power
>
> Despite countries around the world investing vast amounts of money in
> nuclear power, the technology continues to be economically uncompetitive.
> Two separate cost problems afflict nuclear power. First, nuclear reactors
> are extremely expensive to build. The Vogtle nuclear
>
> plant being built in the state of Georgia, involving two AP1000 reactors
> designed to generate around 1,100 megawatts of electricity each, is
> currently estimated to cost nearly 35billion(11,12).In2011,whentheutilityb
> uildingthereactorsoughtpermissionfromtheNuclearRegulatoryCommission,itproj
> ectedatotalcostof
> 35�������(11,12).��2011,�ℎ���ℎ�����������������ℎ������������ℎ����������������ℎ����������������������������,�����������������������14
> billion, and “in-service dates of 2016 and 2017” for the two units (13).
>
> As of March 2023, neither unit has started operating. Westinghouse, the
> company developing the design, originally projected a time period of three
> years to construct each AP1000 reactor (14). Vogtle has exceeded that
> projection by a factor of three.
>
> Vogtle is by no means the only delayed reactor. In Finland, building of
> the Olkiluoto-3 European Pressurized reactor (EPR) started in August 2005;
> its builders expected it to start operating in 2009, but it was first
> connected to the grid only in 2022, a thirteen year delay (15). The story
> of its sister EPR at Flamanville in France is similar. Although its
> construction started two years later—and presumably the builders had some
> time to learn from the experience in Finland—that reactor is now expected
> to start operations in 2024, a dozen years after the expected 2012 (16).
> Like Vogtle, its cost has escalated dramatically, from €3.2 billion to
> €13.2 billion.
>
> These construction delays are occurring in United States, which has built
> more reactors than any other country, and France, which has the highest
> nuclear share in the world. In other words, these problems are not being
> encountered by some neophyte country embarking on building its first
> nuclear power plant.
>
> There is no reason to expect things will get better in the future.
> Historical experience in the United States and France shows that nuclear
> construction costs have typically gone up, not down, as more reactors are
> built (17–20). Cost estimates of the European Pressurized reactors being
> built at Hinkley Point in the United Kingdom are greater than the costs of
> the Flamanville and Olkiluoto reactors; the estimated costs of the Russian
> VVER reactors proposed for Turkey and Bangladesh are higher than the cost
> of the first two Koodankulam reactors operating in India.
>
> The second cost problem afflicting nuclear power involve the high
> operating expenses of nuclear reactors. These expenses do not include what
> is involved in servicing the extremely high capital costs, and yet are high
> enough to make nuclear energy uncompetitive with natural gas, solar, and
> wind power.
>
> Over the last decade or so, this second cost problem has forced utilities
> to shut down multiple old reactors despite having active operating licenses
> (21–24). In the United States, 104 nuclear reactors were operating at the
> end of 2010 (25). A decade later, in December 2020, that was down to 94
> (26). The number of operating reactors declined from 19 to 15 in the United
> Kingdom; and from 10 to 6 reactors in Sweden. The nuclear fleet would be
> even smaller but for governments shoveling exorbitant subsidies at
> utilities owning nuclear plants, partly due to misguided beliefs about the
> importance of nuclear power for mitigating climate change. But an
>
> equally important reason has been lobbying by the nuclear industry and its
> supporters, as well as systemic corruption (27,28).
>
> Caption: Plot of trends in the cost of generating electricity (the
> so-called Levelized Cost of Energy) from the 2022 World Nuclear Industry
> Status Report (1) which is based on cost estimates reported by the Wall
> Street advisory firm Lazard from 2009 to 2021.
>
> Nuclear power’s economic challenge is graphically shown in the figure
> above, which is drawn using data presented in successive cost reports by
> the Wall Street advisory firm Lazard (29,1). At nearly $170 per
> megawatt-hour of electricity, generating nuclear power costs over four
> times the corresponding figure for utility-scale solar and wind farms.
>
> The comparison between nuclear power and variable renewables like solar
> and wind is complicated by the fact that the latter sources do not generate
> power steadily, and depend on how much wind is blowing and whether the sun
> is shining. But the very large cost differential between nuclear and
> renewables should be more than enough to allow for complementary
> technologies to compensate for variations in the outputs of solar and wind
> farms (30). There is also a vast literature that explores how renewables
> can support a reliable electrical grid provided suitable and affordable
> options, such as energy efficiency, demand response, technological and
> geographic diversity, and some storage, are incorporated (31).
>
> *The question of time *
>
> Nuclear reactors are not just expensive. They take a very long time to
> construct. The average nuclear plant takes around a decade to go from when
> the first concrete is poured on the ground to the first units of power
> flowing into the grid (1). The requisite planning, getting permits, and
> raising the billions of dollars in funding needed to construct a plant,
> might take up to a decade too.
>
> Consider the case of Hinkley Point C in the United Kingdom where two EPRs
> are being built at Hinkley Point. In 2008, the U.K. government issued a
> White Paper that envisioned new reactors producing power by 2018, further
> recommending Hinkley Point as where the first nuclear plant could be built
> because it already had the requisite environmental clearances (32). In
> reality, it was December 2018 by the time the first of the two EPRs began
> to be built at Hinkley Point C; the second unit started being built in
> December 2019. The currently projected start date for the first of the
> reactors is 2027, with the cost estimate of the two EPR units touching $40
> billion (33).
>
> This is the case in the United Kingdom, which is very familiar with this
> process. Over the decades, the country has built 45 power reactors.
> Experience with nuclear power is not an advantage that many other countries
> have.
>
> Although may propose to expand nuclear power to combat climate change, few
> discuss where these new nuclear plants are to be built. For nuclear power
> to contribute significantly to mitigating climate change, much of this new
> nuclear capacity would have to be built in developing countries. These are
> the countries that have fast expanding energy needs and growing
> populations. But, few developing countries use nuclear energy.
>
> One of the few attempts at identifying a potential geographical
> distribution of new nuclear reactors was the influential study published by
> the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 2003 (34). The MIT study
> developed a scenario where nuclear power contributes significantly to
> mitigating climate change by 2050 and came up with a hypothetical
> allocation of new nuclear power plants to countries around the world.
>
> That scenario foresaw a number of countries like Algeria, Indonesia,
> Malaysia, North Korea, the Philippines, Venezuela, and Vietnam all
> acquiring their first nuclear power plants by 2050. Indonesia, for example,
> would have to build up 39 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2050. To reach
> that target, Indonesia should build around 25 large nuclear reactors like
> the ones at Hinkley Point C or 35 reactors like the ones at Vogtle. Today,
> two decades after the MIT report came out, Indonesia still has no operating
> nuclear power plant; nor is one being built.
>
> There is a good reason why developing countries, despite a desire to build
> nuclear capacity, have not built nuclear power plants in large numbers.
> Financial resources for capital intensive projects are scarce in
> cash-strapped developing countries, and nuclear plants are prohibitively
> expensive. Nor should these countries be considering nuclear power, for it
> is an expensive and inefficient way to deliver energy to the developing
> world’s unserved people.
>
> Despite these reasons for foreswearing nuclear technology, perhaps many
> developing countries might develop nuclear power plants after all. But that
> is unrealistic within the next few decades. In April 2022, the
> Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated that “global temperature
> will stabilise when carbon dioxide emissions reach net zero. For 1.5°C
> (2.7°F), this means achieving net zero carbon dioxide emissions globally in
> the early 2050s” (35).
>
> In other words, to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, the world has to
> stop emitting carbon dioxide, or find ways of absorbing the emitted carbon
> dioxide, within three decades. Nuclear power’s track record and technical
> constraints make it clear that it cannot play any significant role in
> reaching this target.
>
> *Can new small modular nuclear reactor designs help? *
>
> When faced with these facts, some proponents of nuclear energy argue that
> alternate nuclear reactor designs will solve the problems confronting
> nuclear power. A particular focus has been on what are called Small Modular
> (Nuclear) Reactors (SMRs). SMR designs typically have power levels between
> 10 and 300 megawatts, much smaller than the 1,000–1,600 megawatt reactor
> designs being built today (36).
>
> Nuclear proponents also talk about so-called advanced reactors, or
> Generation IV nuclear energy systems, which are based on designs not
> involving cooling by water: such designs include gas-cooled high
> temperature reactors, sodium cooled fast neutron reactors, and molten salt
> reactors cooled by, well, molten salts. Many of these reactor designs also
> fit into the category of small modular reactors because they are intended
> to produce less than 300 megawatts.
>
> First, let us discuss SMRs. Because SMRs produce less power, nuclear
> advocates expect building these would cost less. Therefore, in principle,
> smaller private companies and countries with smaller economic capacity
> (i.e., GDP) can invest in nuclear power. While the lower total cost may
> help deal with the first problem, the second problem becomes worse because
> small reactors lose out on economies of scale.
>
> Larger reactors are cheaper on a per megawatt basis because their material
> and work requirements do not scale linearly with power capacity. A general
> rule of thumb followed in industrial engineering postulates a 0.6 power
> relation between the capital cost and the size of the facility (37). All
> else being equal, constructing a SMR designed to produce 200 megawatts
> would cost around 40 percent of what it would cost to build a 1000 megawatt
> reactor, whereas it would generate only 20 percent of the electricity.
> Thus, the 200 megawatt SMR would have roughly twice the cost per kilowatt
> of capacity, which directly translates into a higher cost per unit of
> electricity generated.
>
> Cost estimates of SMRs under development offer evidence of higher per kW
> costs. The UAMPS project involving six NuScale units proposed to be built
> in Idaho is estimated to cost an eye-popping $9.3 billion for just 462
> megawatts of power capacity (38). That amounts to over
>
> $20,000 per kilowatt. In comparison to the Vogtle project in Georgia, when
> that project was at a comparable stage—that is, when it was still on
> paper—the estimate for the UAMPS project is around 250% more than the
> initial per kilowatt cost of the Vogtle project. Of course, the Vogtle cost
> has since exploded, but there is every reason to expect a similar fate for
> the UAMPS project if and when construction starts. Even without such an
> increase during construction, the NuScale SMR design is more expensive than
> large reactors on a per kilowatt basis.
>
> SMR proponents have a counter argument: the lost economies of scale will
> be compensated by savings through mass manufacture in factories and
> resultant learning. But, for the price per kilowatt for a small reactor to
> be comparable to large reactors, SMRs have to be manufactured by the
> hundreds, maybe thousands, even under very optimistic assumptions about
> rates of learning (36). If and when all those SMRs are manufactured, then,
> perhaps, the cost per kilowatt of SMRs might match the cost per kilowatt of
> large nuclear reactors. Even then, SMRs will only economically competitive
> with the likes of the Vogtle nuclear plant, and generate power at costs
> that are many times that of renewable sources of energy.
>
> Even that sombre outlook might be too optimistic for the real world where
> multiple theoretical assumptions made by SMR developers will not hold. For
> example, they assume that costs of nuclear power plants will decline as
> more of these are built; but, in both the United States and France, costs
> rose with time (19,20). The theoretical prerequisite for such learning is
> that most reactor builders would choose a standardised design. But there
> are currently dozens of SMR designs being developed around the world. This
> makes it very unlikely that one, or even a few designs, will be chosen by
> different countries and private companies.
>
> Building SMRs has also been subject to delays. Russia’s first SMR is the
> KLT-40S, which is based on the design of reactors used in the
> nuclear-powered icebreakers operated by Russia for decades. When
> construction started in 2007, the KLT-40S reactor was expected to start
> operating in October 2010. It began producing power a whole decade later,
> in May 2020 (39).
>
> Even in the case of designs being developed, there are significant delays.
> NuScale, the design closest to being deployed in the United States, has
> gone from planning to first generate power in 2015-16 to the current
> expectation that the first reactor will start producing power in 2029-30
> (40)
>
> Turning to the so-called advanced reactor designs, there is a long history
> of reactor designs not based on standard light-water-reactor technology
> being built around the world. And this history shows that these designs
> will have a number of technical problems that make them unreliable for
> electricity generation (41,42).
>
> When it was established in 2000, the Generation IV initiative’s aimed for
> “commercial deployment by 2020–2030” (43). In 2018, the Generation IV forum
> concluded that “readiness for commercial fleet deployment” might occur only
> “around 2045 (for the first systems)” (44). The delay should not come as a
> surprise: these designs are challenged by major technological problems. In
> 2015, France’s Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN)
> examined
>
> these challenges, concluding that “the SFR [Sodium‐cooled Fast Reactor]
> system [is] the only one of the various nuclear systems considered by GIF
> [Generation IV International Forum] to have reached a degree of maturity
> compatible with the construction of a Generation IV reactor prototype
> during the first half of the 21st century; such a realization, however,
> requires the completion of studies and technological developments mostly
> already identified” (45).
>
> But even sodium-cooled fast reactors are unlikely to be built quickly, and
> there is a long history of delays, poor performance, and nagging problems
> afflicting these designs (46). India’s Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor
> (PFBR) offers an illustration of the lengthy delays associated with even
> new sodium cooled reactor designs. The government started planning to
> building the PFBR in the early 1980s, after a quarter century of dreaming
> about breeder reactors (47). In 2004, when the first concrete was poured,
> the PFBR was expected to start operating in 2010. The reactor has been
> delayed repeatedly and is now expected to start operating in 2024 (48).
>
> The bottom line is that new reactor designs, whether these are termed
> small modular reactors or advanced reactors or Generation IV reactors,
> cannot help nuclear power be deployed fast enough to meet the urgency of
> climate change mitigation.
>
> *Conclusion *
>
> Nearly a quarter century ago, the physicist Freeman Dyson wrote, “the
> characteristic feature of an ideologically driven technology is that it is
> not allowed to fail. And that is why nuclear energy got into trouble. The
> ideology said that nuclear energy must win. The promoters of nuclear energy
> believed as a matter of faith that it would be safe and clean and cheap and
> a blessing to humanity. When evidence to the contrary emerged, the
> promoters found ways to ignore the evidence” (49).
>
> Dyson’s characterization of nuclear power’s promoters holds till today.
> Nuclear advocates continue to ignore the evidence for the decline in
> importance of nuclear energy and its inability to compete economically with
> renewable sources of energy. New reactor designs will not rescue nuclear
> power from this fate.
>
> The climate crisis is urgent. The world has neither the financial
> resources or the luxury of time to expand nuclear power. In the 2019 issue
> of the *World Nuclear Industry Status Report*, Amory Lovins, another
> physicist, expressed this idea succinctly: “to protect the climate, we must
> abate the most carbon at the least cost—and in the least time—*so we must
> pay attention to carbon, cost, and time, not to carbon alone” *(50).
>
> From the perspective of minimizing cost and time, expanding nuclear energy
> only makes the climate problem worse. First, the money invested in nuclear
> energy would save far more carbon dioxide if it were invested in further
> the switch to renewables. There is thus an economic opportunity cost to
> investing in nuclear energy. And the long timescales involved in expanding
> nuclear power means that the reduction in emissions from alternative
> investments would not only be greater, but also quicker.
>
> *References *
>
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