With each passing hour the mystery surrounding the disappearance and
presumed loss of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 gets more strange...and
speculation is rampant.
The Vietnamese Navy is reporting that the plane crashed off Tho Chu Island
in the South China Sea between Vietnam and Malaysia. The flight, carrying
239 passengers-including two infants and 12 crew members-departed Kuala
Lumpur at 12:41 am, local time, bound for Beijing. The aircraft was
scheduled to land at Beijing International Airport at 6:30 am, local time.
I must preface all of this by saying that speculation is dangerous in
trying to quickly establish the probable cause of the disappearance and
presumed crash of the Malaysia Airline Boeing 777. but with each passing
hour, certain things can be ruled out:
1. Weather. There were no reports of severe weather in the area
2. No terrorist group has claimed responsibility for the loss of the plane
3. No widespread debris field has yet been found.
4. Nothing has yet emerged about the mechanical history of this particular
tail number -- no past history of structural or pressurization problems.
Numbers three and four are particularly interesting. Had the plane suffered
a severe structural/pressurization failure at cruising altitude, had it
broken apart, there would likely be a widespread debris field (much like
Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie Scotland in 1988). So far, none has been
discovered.
And yet, aa highly rare, catastrophic breakup at altitude could possibly
explain why the cockpit crew was unable to broadcast any sort of an
emergency.
Modern jet aircraft do not suddenly fall out of the sky. As any air
accident investigator can tell you, no plane ever crashes for any one
reason. It's two, perhaps three reasons -- occurring either in short order
or simultaneous.
But this much is known: There has been no sighting of a widespread debris
field. And that is the most curious thing for investigators. No radio
transmission or emergency broadcast from the plane before it disappeared,
which raises some very interesting questions. If the plane suffered a
sudden and catastrophic fuselage or pressurization problem at altitude, it
would have broken up in the air, and the debris field would be massive. (As
in Pan Am 103). It also would then explain why there was no radio call or
other emergency transmission made from the crew.
But planes don't just fall from the sky. No one factor causes this. It's a
combination of two, or three things that -- in concert -- create a situation
where the pilots cannot recover. But what were the factors here? Tons of
speculation, which can be dangerous, but investigators systematically must
rule things out before they can ever rule anything in.
While it is very, very early in the investigation, this is what they are
beginning to discount: weather issues. That's it. Every other theory is
still in play.
In the meantime, Boeing and Malaysia Air are both now poring over the
entire service records of this particular 777 to see if there was any prior
mechanical issues or a pattern or problem with air pacs or pressurization.
But the real focus right now (in addition to pursuing the "fake passport"
report), is leading investigators directly to the area of cockpit crew
"human factors." One of the things investigators in Malaysia are looking at
intensely are the backgrounds of both the pilot, the copilot and the relief
pilot on that flight. what were the dynamics of their personal lives? There
have been previous incidents with other airline crashes where one of the
pilots wanted to kill himself. He waited until the other pilot left the
cockpit to go to the lavatory, then locked him out and pushed the yoke all
the way down, and in less than three minutes the plane impacted the ground
at around 400 mph (or in this case, the sea). Again, the reason why
investigators are so interested in this theory is the total lack of
communication from the plane prior to impact.
Of course, there is nothing definitive or concrete yet on any of these
investigative tracks. and. no signals received from the plane's ELT
(emergency locator transmitter) which normally has a battery life of 48
hours (and we're at that expiration time at this writing).
We will continue to monitor events. But I want to caution everyone that --
once again -- in order to arrive at a probable cause of what really
happened, the investigators have to continue to rule out so many
possibilities before they can ever rule in anything. - pgb
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Posted By apa tu to Says Blog on 3/10/2014 07:16:00 pm
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