By Nandkumar Kamat
MONSOON is a word derived from the Arabic �Mausam�. The season called �monsoon� is a tropical weather phenomena. The monsoon is a massive weather engine. It discharges billions of tonne of water in Indian sub continent. India�s hydrological cycle would not exist without recharges from monsoon. The two branches of the monsoon-the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal/Andaman arm carry the rain clouds over our heads from Indira point in Nikobar islands to Kashmir valley.
There are various predictive models for monsoon rainfall. But still there is a degree of uncertainty and complexity. The wind circulation may change without any expectation and suddenly there could be prolonged and worrisome dry spells. The present dry spell is unprecedented. The rainfall profile since the middle of May is also disturbing. I have also observed that the sea is unusually calm this month as compared to the swells which we experience in last week of June.
Why the monsoon is behaving like a spoilsport? Are there global or regional factors? Whether the global green house effect (GHE) is responsible for the erratic behaviour of the monsoon? One cannot jump to conclusions because the monsoon is a strange entity. A few decades ago, Mumbai was having a prolonged dry spell and then suddenly there was a �cloudburst�, 500 mm rainfall in 24 hours! Such mini cloudbursts have also occurred in Goa leading to flash floods in Sattari, Bicholim, Quepem and Ponda. So nothing can be said of the coming weeks.
The present mood of the monsoon made me curious. I decided to study the past rainfall records. The monthwise rainfall data shows the variations. The total rainfall may be important but its distribution is crucial for crops. Thanks to some old rainfall records referred by us during the preparation of the official master plans for utilisation of the water resources of Mandovi, Zuari, Talpona and Galjibaga rivers, I had the access, as the member of the state governments� panel of experts, to the rainfall figures over almost the whole 20th century.
For several rain-gauge stations the data is available month wise. The rainguage stations show the orographic (mountain related) and altitudinal effect as the monsoon clouds move from coastal plains to the western ghats. The western scarf of the ghats receives more rainfall. These are the major catchment areas of our rivers.
I looked at the rainfall records of Sanguem station from 1921-22. In 1960-61 , it had recorded 768 mm rain in May but there were several dry years. The variation of rainfall in June was disturbing. It was as low as just 75 mm in 1932-33 and as high as 1767 mm in 51-52. The variation for July was 546, the lowest in 1964-65 and 3018 mm, the highest in 61-62.
The monsoon starts withdrawing from August but the official date for Goa is September 30. The variation for August was 122 mm in 1926-7 and as high as 1730 mm in 1940-41. Goa enjoys a paradise like weather from September to November. The rainfall variation for Sanguem for September was 43 mm in 1952-53 and 1253 mm in 50-51. October has been generally dry but in 1955-56 it rained 549 mm. November also recorded as high as 264 mm in 66-67.
Interestingly, the years of highest rainfall are things of the past. 1961-62 was perhaps the wettest year of the recording period with 6,953 mm rainfall. The driest year was 1926-7 when it rained just 2,273 mm, less than half of the normal. I checked data at Neturlim. I looked at the 25 years of water inflow data for Guleli river which fills up the Selaulim reservoir. Over a period of a few years, no trend or pattern is seen. But if we analyse the data decade wise then there is something very disturbing.
It is not only a marginal reduction in the average annual rainfall but it is abnormal distribution. Of course we have to be prepared for huge variations like 75 mm to 1,767 mm as recorded in June at a place where it is supposed to rain like cats and dogs.
This year the rainfall at the end of June may not even cross the normal 1,000 mm mark, unless there is a mini cloudburst before this article is published. At the time of writing this, the seasonal total for Panaji rain-gauge station was less than 600 mm.
The weatherman would be happy to see it crosses even 700 mm by tonight. But the trend is very disturbing considering the early commencement of the monsoon. If the government is not alert, then there would be an agricultural disaster this year. Already farmers who had sown early have lost their crops.
There is another interesting observation which I made on the plant and fungal flora. The silk cotton trees somehow sensed early monsoon activity and completed the maturation of their seed pods much before the rains. My records for the silk cotton trees in our university campus show that the cotton pods matured and the fibres dispersed a month in advance this year.
How plants perceive the weather clock? I also found several mushroom species in May which were supposed to fruit normally in early July. And the nature gifted us the European Imperial mushroom-Amanita caesarea species, a beautiful orange mushroom which was a delicacy of Roman emperors.
In my field survey of 18 years, the species was found for the first time. It looks like the moods of the monsoon also affect the moods of flora and fauna. Biological clocks are getting reset. Let us leave aside academics and figures, what if the monsoon activity does not revive? Then the country might face an economic emergency. Are we ready?
- Forwarded by www.goa-world.com
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