Thomas Giella KN4LF wrote:
An X18+ solar flare occurred this morning. It appears to be the second largest flare of cycle 23. Solar flares of this magnitude are rare and this event can be considered historic and a threat to power grid systems, orbiting satellites and Astronauts. A daylight side radio blackout up to approximately 13 meters has already occurred and a large elevated energetic proton event >10 MeV (10+o) has commenced, (10+4) so far. A direct hit (Geo-effective from a fast moving Coronal Mass Ejection will impact Earth's magnetic field UTC on 03/10/29. If the Bz magnetic component of Earth's magnetic field turns southward then an extreme K-9 geomagnetic storm is probable at mid latitudes, with visible Aurora possible as far south as Florida. This event would be closer to the media hyped silliness of last week. It remains to be seen how fast they jump on this one. See the SIDC Belgium report below.
I wonder if anyone is going to point out that the SEC's funding is in jeopardy - if it passes we won't have any warning...
http://www.arrl.org/news/stories/2003/10/03/3/
regards, Jason W0JSB
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA EL87WX
Yaesu FT-840 Digital Modes E-List: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/yaesu_ft840
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive Plus Daily HF.MF Radio Propagation Outlook: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
SIDC URSIGRAM 31028 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Oct 2003, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 28 Oct 2003 until 30 Oct 2003) SOLAR FLARES : Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Severe geomagnetic storm expected (A>=100 or K>=7) SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Oct 2003 10CM FLUX: 280 / AP: 035 PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Oct 2003 10CM FLUX: 280 / AP: 017 PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Oct 2003 10CM FLUX: 280 / AP: 098
COMMENT: An X17.2 (!) flare has just occurred in sunspot group Catania 70 (NOAA 0486). Its peaking time is 11:10 UT. Coronal dimmings and probably an EIT wave have been observed close to the central meridian in EIT 195 movie, indicating the onset of a CME, which is directed towards the earth. Therefore we expect a major to severe magnetic storm on Thursday 30 October. A proton event has just started. This is directly related to the X17.2 flare. The >10Mev and >50 MeV proton flux levels have exceeded the threshold. The Catania 75 sunspot group(NOAA 0488) had several C flares and one Mflare yesterday. A shock was observed in ACE data at about 3 UT today, the solar wind speed rose from 500 to 600 km/s. This is probably the arrival of the partial halo CME of 26 Oct, related to the X1.2 flare in Cat 70 (NOAA 0486) peaking at 06:54 UT. The current speed of the solar wind is 800 km/s. Leading to a NOAA Kp of 4 and an Izmiran local Kindex of 5.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 27 Oct 2003 SUNSPOT INDEX : 219 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 257 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 016 AK WINGST : 012 ESTIMATED AP : 014
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
27 1227 1243 1252 S17E25 M6.7 SF 59 III/2 70 0486 27 2146 2151 2205 N08E09 M1.9 SN III/3 75 0488 28 1018 1110 1145 S18E20 X17 70 0486 EIT derived loc _______________________________________________
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