123456789 123456789 123456789 123456789 123456789 123456789 12345 Hello, Radio Enthusiast!
The very large coronal hole that has kept the geomagnetic field at active to minor storm levels is no longer in view. This is giving us a nice period of quiet geomagnetic activity, with the result being that we are seeing propagation that is more normal over most of the paths around the world. A smaller coronal hole is currently near the central solar meridian and is expected to lead to minor geomagnetic storm conditions from Sunday, 21-XII-2003 onwards. Between now and then, it is expected that the 10.7-cm flux will climb a bit, perhaps as high as 130, while the planetary A index (Ap) should remain at or below 10. From 21-XII-2003 onward, the flux will gradually fall to about 100, with some elevation of the Ap index as the geomagnetic field becomes active again due to that coronal hole. After 31-XII-2003, we.ll see conditions become a bit rougher, again. However, this is due to the coronal hole that we.re seeing, not because of any major flare. Between today and the first of the New Year, there is only a slim chance of any moderate flare, while there will be a good number of minor small flares (B- and C-class flares). There is also a small chance for a proton event from mid to late December. This might make over-the-pole propagation a bit tough. At the time of writing this bulletin, the solar wind speed is at about 400 km per second, which is a normal speed, with only a slight southerly orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field. As of 17-XII-2003, the sunspot count is 92, and the 10.7-cm flux is 118. The Ap is 10, and the Kp (planetary K index) is 3. This translates to some very good conditions for the High Frequencies (HF). Expected MUFs are normal, rather than depressed as we.ve seen for the last couple of weeks. The season is great for worldwide DX on HF, and this period between now and the New Year will offer great conditions for most of the time. The highest frequencies will have some long-range F-layer openings (since the flux will be above 100), but they will be short. Lower frequencies will propagate much better over most paths. Come by and check out the online Propagation and Radio (SWL and Amateur) discussion forum, where a group of us are discussing the science and current events of space weather and propagation: http://hfradio.org/forums/ In addition, you can always get the latest live space weather and propagation information at http://prop.hfradio.org -- or with a WAP phone, at http://wap.hfradio.org/ Happy Dxing! 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, and Popular Communications : : Quarterly Propagation Columnist for Monitoring Times Magazine : : Creator of live propagation center - http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Member, US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) AAR0JA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA - CN87 - CW/SSB/DIGI : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer -- AAM0EWA : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, AR Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]--------------------- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]----------------------- ________________________________________ Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ _______________________________________________ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt