Hey Vinay! Thanks for continuing to include me in this thread. I was marginally aware of this, but wasn't following religiously. I was hoping that after the Covid debacle, the CDC was getting an impactful, meaningful review/re-work. It did get a new director... but...
Did you follow the series of reports on NPR's "Forum" show by Alexis Madrigal? He and a crew of volunteers wrestled with the problem of very uneven case reporting and ended up feeding information you would think they would be getting directly and easily. I just started another letter to him basically asking him if he worried that he'll be tempted to move into the gap - again. I was hoping that getting a new director would help but I think this problem is tougher than the Boeing one because of the fractured governance situation - state, local, etc. all able to go their own way to the detriment of society at large. And HexaYurts as emergency shelter. What's your latest version? I've started dabbling in easy, portable, on-site-assemblable, more durable designs. Best, Dan On Sun, May 5, 2024 at 6:15 AM Vinay Gupta (Hexayurt Shelter Project) < hexay...@gmail.com> wrote: > > ((Excuse the interruption this is important. On aocial here > > https://x.com/leashless/status/1787106348011765876?s=46&t=2M36wjuULZupUvqhKIoehA > ) > > THE BOEING OF BIRD FLU — a long read on the new epidemic > > A bird flu epidemic has started in Texas. It is spreading from cows to > humans and other species (cats). Things are going badly. It is too soon to > tell if this is the start of a major public health crisis. > > The pandemic response has severe management problems of a kind > recognisable in general principle from the Boeing plane safety crisis. > > We do not know if there is human-to-human spread yet and severe data > gathering issues mean we likely will not know early enough to contain an > outbreak. > > The most experienced people appear to be the most worried. That is usually > a bad sign in a crisis. > > Links and quotes below. > > Quote begins: > > “But Russo and many other vets have heard anecdotes about workers who have > pink eye and other symptoms—including fever, cough, and lethargy—and do not > want to be tested or seen by doctors. James Lowe, a researcher who > specializes in pig influenza viruses, says policies for monitoring exposed > people vary greatly between states. >>> “I believe there are probably lots > of human cases,” he says, noting that most likely are asymptomatic.“ <<< > > Quote ends. > > Comment: > > I won’t bore you with the horror show of the growing list of other species > and what percentage of them die of the damn thing when infected: read up on > elephant seals if you want to scare yourself silly. > > There was a global public health shitshow on covid. Bird flu spreading in > humans could be a lot more severe. Public health response will likely be > even less effective. > > We do not know how likely a human-to-human bird flu epidemic is. However > limited cow-to-cat transmission and cow-to-human transmission appear > well-established on current data. > > How would we know about human-to-human spread? > > Read on: > > > https://www.science.org/content/article/u-s-government-hot-seat-response-growing-cow-flu-outbreak > > Quote begins: > > “In the supplementary appendix, researchers said they weren't able to do a > follow-up investigation on the sick worker or other exposures among workers > at the farm. They also noted that they weren't able to collect follow-up > specimens from the patient to track viral loads or shedding duration. "We > were also unable to collect acute or convalescent sera to assess > seroconversion in the dairy farm worker or household contacts," the group > wrote. > > A spokesperson for the Texas Department of State Health Services told CBS > News that the Texas dairy worker came to a Texas field office for testing > and did not disclose the name of their workplace. > … > Data gaps but strong evidence of cow-to-human spread > … > "Sequence data from the farm where the infected dairy farm worker was > exposed to presumably infected was not available," they wrote, noting that > the sequencing picture so far has gaps and suggests the virus may have been > circulating undetected for some time.” > > Quote ends. > > > https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/case-report-bolsters-evidence-h5n1-avian-flu-spread-cow-texas-dairy-worker > > > Comment: > > We may already have missed human-to-human bird flu transmission in this > situation. We just don’t know. > > However. > > The broad principle of “early detection, early response” is well > understood as the keystone of handling novel infectious diseases. To > understand more about that approach see > https://www.ted.com/participate/ted-prize/prize-winning-wishes/instedd > > We are likely now past the “early detection, early response” phase of the > current bird flu epidemic in cows. It is widespread and has been spreading > for months. > > We may be out of the “early detection, early response” phase for human > spread. We do not know. > > So far there are no proven cases of H2H, but the data gathering issues are > so severe H2H would likely not be detectable at this stage. > > This situation is the Boeing of bird flu. We did not wind up here because > everything is fine. There are severe underlying public health issues. > Godspeed to all. > > > *-- * > *Vinay Gupta* * hexay...@gmail.com <hexay...@gmail.com>* > *http://myhopeforthe.world* <http://myhopeforthe.world> > *Free Science and Engineering in the Global Public Interest* > UK Cell : +44 (0)7500 895568 Twitter/Skype/Gtalk: hexayurt > "In the midst of winter, I finally learned that there was > in me an invincible summer" - Albert Camus > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "hexayurt" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to hexayurt+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hexayurt/CAEgKDq4iR%3D%3DjdWqh%2BntAuNYanOR_diNnxvyCjYa3J4BVnAq8Nw%40mail.gmail.com > <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hexayurt/CAEgKDq4iR%3D%3DjdWqh%2BntAuNYanOR_diNnxvyCjYa3J4BVnAq8Nw%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> > . > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "hexayurt" group. 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