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One step forward ...
Reported by: Syed Saleem Shahzad
11/12/2001 (Asia Times) :: With Northern Alliance
forces capturing the key
city of Mazar-e-Sharif from the Taliban in Afghanistan
and advancing towards
two other strategic points - Herat and Kabul - there
are still lingering
suspicions that this "defeat" might be another ruse on
the part of the Taliban.
Contrary to widespread anticipation that the Taliban
regime is on the brink of
collapse, some sources say that the scene has now been
set for a prolonged
guerrilla war aimed at bleeding the economies of the
United States and its
allies.
The Northern Alliance have taken a large part of the
north of the country
following the breakthrough capture of Mazar-e-Sharif.
American B-52 bombers
pounded Taliban positions north of Kabul on Monday as
opposition forces were
reported to be heading towards the capital.
This is despite the fact that US President George W
Bush has urged that the
city should not be taken at this point, fearing that
fighting could weaken the
chances of building a post-Taliban coalition
government. After meeting over the
weekend with Pakistani President General Pervez
Musharraf, Bush said that
control of Kabul was key to any future political
arrangement in the country.
Pakistan does not support the Northern Alliance -
mostly made up of ethnic
Tajiks and Uzbeks - playing a role in a post-Taliban
government. Most
Pakistanis are Pashtun, like their Afghan neighbors,
and support a
Pashtun-dominated government.
In the northwest of the country, opposition commander
Ismail Khan is reported
to be at the gates of Herat, with some reports saying
that it has already fallen.
The Tajik Khan is one of the more famous anti-Soviet
mujahideen, and formerly
governed Herat. Herat commands vital highways leading
to Iran and
Turkmenistan, and its capture would clear the way for
an opposition advance
on Kandahar, the home of the Taliban's spiritual
leader, Mullah Omar.
On Sunday, the Alliance drove the Taliban out of
another key city, Taloqan, its
former headquarters and an economic center. The move
could cut off Taliban
forces in northeastern Afghanistan. According to
sources, in coming days the
Taliban will also withdraw from Kabul and allow
Northern Alliance troops to
enter without too much opposition.
Some analysts say that the Taliban's strategy should
be studied in
perspective. The regime has been preparing for a war
against the US since the
latter attacked Afghanistan with missiles in 1998 in
retaliation for terror attacks
initiated by Osama bin Laden on US embassies in
Africa.
The real mastermind of the plans after 1998, however,
has not been bin Laden,
but the chief of the Al-Jehad (Egypt) group, Dr Al
Aiman Al Zawari, who is a
surgeon by profession and who is considered to be the
number two in bin
Laden's Al-Qaeda network.
Sources say that under his strategy the only hope that
the Taliban would have
would be to draw the US into hostile territory, such
as Afghanistan's
mountains, to exhaust its military and economic might,
forcing Washington to
curtail its military operations in the Middle East.
Once it did this, over 50
organizations that are a part of Al-Qaeda would rise
against Arab monarchs
and Israel.
Asia Times Online spoke to the former director-general
of the Pakistani
Inter-Services Intelligence, retired
lieutenant-general Hamid Gul. Gul has been
a controversial figure since his days in the Pakistan
Army. And before the
1988 general elections he helped form the Islamic
Democratic Alliance, a
coalition of rightwing parties assembled to block
(unsuccessfully) the way of
Benazir Bhutto into power. Even since his retirement,
he is still considered
one of the main authorities on Islamic forces in
Afghanistan.
Asia Times Online: How do you asses the present
situation in Afghanistan?
Was it deliberate that Taliban retreated, or were they
defeated?
Gul: It was a deliberate withdrawal of forces. Even
their resistance of the last
34 days against heavy carpet bombing was miraculous.
Asia Times Online: What benefits can the Taliban get
from this withdrawal?
Gul: At present, US forces are carrying out carpet
bombing, which is
devastating. There is no way out to resist these air
assaults. Now, once the
Taliban have given room to Northern Alliance forces,
the US and its allies will
also send in their ground troops, and this is what the
Taliban's main objective
is. Now the Taliban will draw them into a trap and do
a real firework.
Asia Times Online: You mean they will fight a
guerrilla war?
Gul: Yes. The Taliban have a policy to engage the US
and the allied ground
forces for a long time in Afghanistan. This will have
an enduring impact on the
US economy and it will force it to cut its military
budget and pull out its forces
from the Middle East, which is their main goal.
Asia Times Online: Are the Taliban also going to loose
Kabul?
Gul: Kabul or Mazar-e-Sharif, it is not a problem. The
real problem will be to
govern these cities. Whoever makes these cities their
center will have a
problem.
Asia Times Online: The current situation shows that
the Taliban will pull back
their forces and finally end up in the eastern
provinces, where they have
already gathered their forces.
Gul: No, I disagree with this thesis. The Taliban will
retain pockets in every
city occupied by the US and its allies to continue
their strikes and create a
permanent problem for any future government in these
provinces and cities.
Asia Times Online: What will the strategy for a future
broad-based government
in Afghanistan be?
Gul: You will see that the very day that Northern
Alliance forces enter Kabul
they will divide. At present, [Uzbek] General
[Abdurrashid] Dostum and his
militia is the main commander. Dostum would certainly
demand a key role in
any future government. Neither the Afghan population
nor his allies will allow it.
The militia has its own trait of warfare. Even during
communist rule, wherever
they entered they looted and plundered, and the same
information is arriving at
present. This situation would certainly cause
resentment among allies, and
they could stand up against each other.
Asia Times Online: The support of the US and its
allies for secular elements in
the Northern Alliance is very much in evidence. Would
elements in the
alliance, such as Abdul Rassoul Sayyaf, leader of
Islamic Union for the
Liberation of Afghanistan, and Burhanuddin Rabbani,
former president of
Afghanistan and leader of the Northern Alliance, who
in the 1980s were
considered hardline Islamic fundamentalists, allow
this?
Gul: I think a broad-based government will be formed
in which all secular
elements will be installed, including [former monarch]
Zahir Shah. UN troops
will be sent to Kabul and the Pakistani army will also
be sent under this
umbrella.
Asia Times Online: The United Kingdom has deployed
ground troops. Why is
the US not sending its own troops first?
Gul: To avoid internal problems. Once the US nation
starts receiving body
bags, resentment will grow against the war and the US
will be forced to fold
this drama in the region.
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