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http://www.islam-online.net/English/News/2003-03/30/article09.shtml
U.S. May Get Bogged Down In Iraq: Pakistani Analysts
ISLAMABAD, March 30 (IslamOnline.net & News Agencies) –
The U.S.-led invasion troops may get bogged down in Iraq and
face a bloody guerrilla war, similar to the Soviet Union's
10-year misadventure in Afghanistan, Pakistani military
experts said Sunday, March 30. "The Americans may be bogged
down in Iraq. Even if they occupy Iraq, they will never be
able to achieve their covert or overt objectives," defence
analyst and former general Talat Masood told Agence
France-Presse (AFP).
"If the Iraqis put up stiff resistance and the casualties on
both sides are heavy then this might turn into a long, drawn-
out war," he said. General Hamid Gul, former chief of Pakistan
military's Inter-Services Intelligence, said Iraqi leader
Saddam Hussein's tactics of combining conventional war with
guerrilla warfare marked a "new chapter in the history of war."
Saddam has not wasted the 12 years since the 1991 Gulf war,
he said. "He raised his own Fidayeen and Republican guards,
motivated them, trained them and rehearsed them as a skilled
force," Gul said. "The Fidayeen are from his own Abu Ghaffari
tribe. They are highly committed and determined troops buoyed
by their own tribal pride."
Early Operation Went Awry Gul said that the U.S. planners had
"underestimated" the Iraqis, and early operations had gone awry,
Gul said. "It is an intelligence failure of enormous magnitude,
worse than September 11" 2001, when hijacked aircraft crashed
into the Pentagon and World Trade Center.
"The Iraq war can entangle them into a long guerrilla war," he
said, adding that fighters from the Palestinian resistance
movement, Hamas, and other Gulf-area resistance groups could join
the fight against the U.S. and British invasion forces in a
"crescendo" of Arab nationalism. Gul warned that the looming hot
summer in Iraq would add to the difficulties faced by U.S. and
British troops. "It is going to be a long and difficult haul for
them unless they (the U.S.-led troops) go for scorched earth
policy and destroy all villages and routes," he added.
They Won’t Win Hearts Of Iraqis
Masood said U.S. plans to leave Iraq in the care of a U.S.
military commander after the invasion have not endeared it to the
Iraqi people, noting that the doors of hells would break loose.
"The Iraqi people will not accept them. They will be their Karzais,"
he said referring to the administration of Afghan leader Hamid Karzai,
which has faced criticism that it is merely a U.S. pawn.
For his part, Former chairman of the Institute of Strategic Studies,
retired general Kamal Matinuddin, said that while people had
differences with Saddam Hussein, however, the issue now is all about
“foreign forces occupying their country.” “The resistance so far shown
by Fidayeen is very tough. They are ready to die as their very name
depicts,” he said.
Matinuddin noted the imbalance in favour of the coalition and said:
"They are going to win the battle but they are not going to win the
heart of the Iraqi people." Added Masood: "People may not like Saddam
but they don't consider U.S. subjugation is an alternative."
“The war is globally very, very unpopular and has robbed the United
States of the goodwill it earned in its ‘war against terrorism’ after
the September 11 attacks. "Bush has been challenging everyone that
'you are either with us or you are with our foes' and mustered an
international coalition against its war on terrorism, but the U.S.
is now on the back foot," Masood said.
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