Rekan, Saya ambil cuplikan dari artikel di Offshore mengenai multi-Component seismic. Ada hal yang menarik, peran Geoscientist dalam menghadapi tantangan dimasa depan. Namun ini untuk tingkat dunia,... bagaimana dengan Indonesia ? Masalah yang dihadapi mungkin saja serupa, malah mungkin lebih kompleks. Pertambahan cadangan tidak seberapa, jumlah produksi menurun, konsumsi dalam negeri meningkat dan sebentar lagi menjadi net importer. Rekan2 yang experience lari keluar negeri dan terjadi brain drain, sementara fresh graduate yang tertampung di industri migas jumlahnya tidak seberapa. Belum lagi investor enggan masuk, terbentuk berbagai masalah, antara lain otonomi daerah dan keamanan dll. Padahal pendapatan migas merupakan salah satu andalan pendapatan negara dan pengerak ekonomi. Adakah solusinya ? bagaimana pendapat rekan2 ?
Industry's challenge What is the current state of the oil industry and the geoscientist's place in it? According to the recent Cambridge Energy Research Associates conference, CERAweek, the industry faces an uncertain future. Venezuelan market dislocations and Iraqi tensions are keeping crude oil prices high, allowing the oil companies to freshen their balance sheets and produce a return for their shareholders. There is plenty of oil available to meet the world's needs with one caveat: reserve levels and quick accessibility are diminishing. Long-term oil supply is the looming problem. Presently, the world economy is using 76-78 MMb/d of crude oil. This demand is expected to increase to 90-110 MMb/d over the next 20 years. When added to the 1.6 Bbbl/yr that must be replaced due to depletion, the industry faces a major challenge. Natural gas demand is project to grow from 90 tcf/d to 135 tcf/d over the next 20 years. Gas sources are plentiful, but infrastructure will need to expand. Large reserves exist in Russia and the Middle East, but major investments in pipelines and LNG are needed to bring them to market. Where does the geoscientist fit in this scenario? New reserves must be found, new fields developed, and mature fields redeveloped. A 30% recovery factor from older fields is inadequate with the world's expanding energy needs. Geoscientists' productivity has im-proved through computer-assisted pros-pecting. But, this has reached the limit of its current ability to deliver "quality" prospects: major reserves at a finding cost of under $1/bbl or a hurdle rate of $12-15/bbl. The industry needs to rebuild the professional ranks, transfer oil-finding knowledge, reach farther into new areas, and adjust hurtle rates upward to meet the world's future demand. Meanwhile, alternative sources are being studied. New research to manufacture fuels, using genetically engineered microbes producing hydrogen or methane, is in the very early stages, but hydrogen/methane generation cannot meet the world's demand in the next 10-20 years. Only new petroleum sources can meet that demand, and only geoscientists can locate the needed reserves. The daunting task ahead of geoscientists - demand expanding to 110 MMb/d and 135 tcf/d with depletion replacement needs of 1.6 Bbbl/yr - cries for attention. More people and better tools are needed to address the challenge. Training a new geoscientist requires eight to 10 years, and new technologies take at least that long to develop. .... deleted Bambang Istadi ConocoPhillips Inc. New Ventures Exploration +1-281-293-3763 --------------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Visit IAGI Website: http://iagi.or.id IAGI-net Archive 1: http://www.mail-archive.com/iagi-net%40iagi.or.id/ IAGI-net Archive 2: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/iagi Komisi Sedimentologi (FOSI) : F. Hasan Sidi([EMAIL PROTECTED])-http://fosi.iagi.or.id Komisi SDM/Pendidikan : Edy Sunardi([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Komisi Karst : Hanang Samodra([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Komisi Sertifikasi : M. Suryowibowo([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Komisi OTODA : Ridwan Djamaluddin([EMAIL PROTECTED] atau [EMAIL PROTECTED]), Arif Zardi Dahlius([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Komisi Database Geologi : Aria A. Mulhadiono([EMAIL PROTECTED]) ---------------------------------------------------------------------
