Rekan,

Saya ambil cuplikan dari artikel di Offshore mengenai multi-Component
seismic. Ada hal yang menarik, peran Geoscientist dalam menghadapi
tantangan dimasa depan.  Namun ini untuk tingkat dunia,... bagaimana
dengan Indonesia ? Masalah yang dihadapi mungkin saja serupa, malah
mungkin lebih kompleks. Pertambahan cadangan tidak seberapa, jumlah
produksi menurun, konsumsi dalam negeri meningkat dan sebentar lagi
menjadi net importer. Rekan2 yang experience lari keluar negeri dan
terjadi brain drain, sementara fresh graduate yang tertampung di
industri migas jumlahnya tidak seberapa.  Belum lagi investor enggan
masuk, terbentuk berbagai masalah, antara lain otonomi daerah dan
keamanan dll. Padahal pendapatan migas merupakan salah satu andalan
pendapatan negara dan pengerak ekonomi.  Adakah solusinya ?  bagaimana
pendapat rekan2 ?

Industry's challenge  
What is the current state of the oil industry and the geoscientist's
place in it? According to the recent Cambridge Energy Research
Associates conference, CERAweek, the industry faces an uncertain future.
Venezuelan market dislocations and Iraqi tensions are keeping crude oil
prices high, allowing the oil companies to freshen their balance sheets
and produce a return for their shareholders. There is plenty of oil
available to meet the world's needs with one caveat: reserve levels and
quick accessibility are diminishing. 
 
Long-term oil supply is the looming problem. Presently, the world
economy is using 76-78 MMb/d of crude oil. This demand is expected to
increase to 90-110 MMb/d over the next 20 years. When added to the 1.6
Bbbl/yr that must be replaced due to depletion, the industry faces a
major challenge. 
 
Natural gas demand is project to grow from 90 tcf/d to 135 tcf/d over
the next 20 years. Gas sources are plentiful, but infrastructure will
need to expand. Large reserves exist in Russia and the Middle East, but
major investments in pipelines and LNG are needed to bring them to
market. 
 
Where does the geoscientist fit in this scenario? New reserves must be
found, new fields developed, and mature fields redeveloped. A 30%
recovery factor from older fields is inadequate with the world's
expanding energy needs. 
 
Geoscientists' productivity has im-proved through computer-assisted
pros-pecting. But, this has reached the limit of its current ability to
deliver "quality" prospects: major reserves at a finding cost of under
$1/bbl or a hurdle rate of $12-15/bbl. The industry needs to rebuild the
professional ranks, transfer oil-finding knowledge, reach farther into
new areas, and adjust hurtle rates upward to meet the world's future
demand. 
 
Meanwhile, alternative sources are being studied. New research to
manufacture fuels, using genetically engineered microbes producing
hydrogen or methane, is in the very early stages, but hydrogen/methane
generation cannot meet the world's demand in the next 10-20 years. Only
new petroleum sources can meet that demand, and only geoscientists can
locate the needed reserves.

The daunting task ahead of geoscientists - demand expanding to 110 MMb/d
and 135 tcf/d with depletion replacement needs of 1.6 Bbbl/yr - cries
for attention. More people and better tools are needed to address the
challenge. Training a new geoscientist requires eight to 10 years, and
new technologies take at least that long to develop. .... deleted
 

Bambang Istadi
ConocoPhillips Inc.
New Ventures Exploration
+1-281-293-3763


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