Sebetulnya kesimpulan tentang penyebab Lusi adalah karena drilling sumur BP-1 & bukan karena gempa Yogya, sudah banyak disimpulkan oleh para ahli Indonesia, baik ahli geologi maupun ahli pemboran, sejak dari tahun pertama kejadian. Tapi dasar orang kita kalau belum ada hasil dari luar negeri / dari orang2 asing, belum mantap & belum mau percaya juga.
Memang mengenai penyebab terjadinya Lusi bukan sesuatu yg harus dikejar terus saat ini, tapi bagaimana cara menanggulanginya & meringankan beban para korban Lusi. Biarpun begitu untuk mengetahui sebab2 terjadinya Lusi juga sangat2 penting untuk menentukan siapa yg harus bertanggungjawab & harus membiayai itu semua, termasuk semua ganti-rugi yg diderita para korban selama ini. wass, nyoto On Tue, Jun 17, 2008 at 8:24 PM, hermawan joko sutrisno < [EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Kira-kira, bisakah report ini dikonfrontir kepada Pak Edi Sutriono (VP > Drilling, EMP)? > Seingat saya, beliau merasa dizalimi dg tuduhan-tuduhan yang mengarah ke > arah kesalahan pemboran. Apalagi kalau melihat baris terakhir email dibawah, > data-data yang dipakai di penelitian ini adalah benar berasal dari Lapindo > Brantas. > Sekedar bertanya, > Hermawan > > > ----- Original Message ---- > From: Rovicky Dwi Putrohari <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > To: "iagi-net@iagi.or.id" <iagi-net@iagi.or.id> > Sent: Thursday, June 12, 2008 11:12:20 AM > Subject: [iagi-net-l] RELEASE: Durham University: Report confirms drilling, > not earthquake, caused Java mud volcano > > RELEASE: Durham University: Report confirms drilling, not earthquake, > caused Java mud volcano > Source: Release > > (The following is the press release from Britain's Durham University > dated June 9, 2008) > A mud volcano which has caused millions of dollars worth of > damage was caused by the drilling of a gas exploration well, an > international team of scientists has concluded. > The two-year old mud volcano, Lusi, is still spewing huge > volumes of mud and has displaced more than 30,000 people. > The most detailed scientific analysis to date disproves the > theory that an earthquake that happened two-days before the mud > volcano erupted in East Java, Indonesia, was potentially to blame. > The report by British, American and Indonesian and Australian > scientists is published this week in the academic journal Earth and > Planetary Science Letters. It outlines and analyses a detailed record > of operational incidents on the drilling of a gas exploration well, > Banjar-Panji-1*. > Lead author, Prof Richard Davies of Durham University, UK, > published research in January 2007 which argued the drilling was most > likely to blame for the eruption of the 'Lusi' mud volcano on May 29 > 2006. > This theory was challenged by the company that drilled the well > and some experts who argued that the Yogyakarta earthquake two days > before the eruption, which had an epicentre 250km from the mud > volcano, was the cause. > Graduate student Maria Brumm and Prof Michael Manga of > University of California, Berkeley undertook a systematic study to > test the claims that the eruption was caused by this earthquake. They > found that none of the ways earthquakes trigger eruptions could have > played a role at Lusi. > Prof Michael Manga, of University of California, Berkeley, said: > "We have known for hundreds of years that earthquakes can trigger > eruptions. In this case, the earthquake was simply too small and too > far away." > The new report concludes the effect of the earthquake was > minimal because the change in pressure underground due to the > earthquake would have been tiny. Instead, scientists are "99 per cent" > certain drilling operations were to blame. > Prof Davies, of Durham University's Centre for Research into > Earth Energy Systems (CeREES) explained: "We show that the day before > the mud volcano started there was a huge 'kick' in the well, which is > an influx of fluid and gas into the wellbore. We show that after the > kick the pressure in the well went beyond a critical level." > "This resulted in the leakage of the fluid from the well and the > rock formations to the surface – a so called 'underground blowout'. > This fluid picked up mud during its accent and Lusi was born. > > He said chances of controlling this pressure would have been > increased if there was more protective casing in the borehole. > Prof Davies added: "We are more certain than ever that the Lusi > mud volcano is an unnatural disaster and was triggered by drilling the > Banjar-Panji-1 well." > Prof Manga added: "While this is a most unfortunate disaster, it > will leave us with a better understanding of the birth, life and death > of a volcano." > Lusi is still flowing at 100,000 cubic metres per day, enough to > fill 53 Olympic swimming pools. > Recent research which Prof Davies was involved in showed it is > collapsing by up to three metres overnight and could subside to depths > of more than 140 metres, having a significant environmental impact on > the surrounding area for years to come. > * The well is operated by oil and gas company Lapindo Brantas, > which has confirmed the published data is correct. 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