Inti dari prakiraan energi ke depan adalah penambahan dan pergeseran kutub konsumen energi dunia ke Negara China. Indonesia dengan sumber daya alam yang terbatas, kalau tidak hati-hati dalam pengelolaan energi di dalam negeri akan mengalami kesulitan untuk dapat memenuhi kebutuhannya akibat persaingan penguasaan energi. Jangan sampai lebih banyak sumber daya alam Indonesia dibawa keluar negeri maupun dihamburkan hanya untuk pemenuhan gaya hidup konsumerisme semata. Maka haruslah terbentuk sikap hemat dan produktif dalam penggunaan energi bagi seluruh masyarakat. Fakta yang terjadi baik US maupun China sudah terbentuk budaya konsumerisme sehingga dunia harus menanggung gaya hidup mereka.
Dr. Michael Economides at PE network forum * Currently Professor at Cullen College of Engineering, University of Houston * Author of "The Color of Oil" State of International Oil and Natural Gas Markets * OPEC has little excess capacity behind the valve * Venezuela - "a basket case" (Dr. Economides opinion) - 50 years behind the times * Iraq - capable of 6 mmbopd - but not very optimistic with current political situation * China - on course to increase oil consumption at 20% per year * Saudi Arabia - world regulator of petroleum markets * Predicts $110 oil in January, 2011 * Oil and gas remain the primary energy source (87% from oil, gas and coal) * Based on the best estimates in 2030 oil, gas and coal will still account for 87% of energy sources * Ethanol a negative energy balance * Wind and Solar takes massive government subsidies * 1 m3 coal burned converted to gas generates 10m3 of super-critical CO2 which requires 2,750m3 of bulk space to sequester the CO2 * New Energy Economy - Wood to Coal to Oil to Natural Gas to Hydrogen (envisioned) * Natural Gas - slow transition to premier energy source * LNG developments in Qatar, Egypt and Sakhalin 2 created 10 bcf of excess capacity creating low gas prices in Europe and the USA * Resulted in devastating impact on US shale gas * Predicts 2 to 3 years of low gas prices * China currently use 70% coal for their energy requirements and only 4% gas and by 2020 they want to increase it to 10% and will have double the energy requirement by then * Gas prices will increase dramatically by 2013 (~$25/mmcf) * 200-500 Tcf in Marcellus and Haynesville - Just below the volumes in Qatar's North Field * Shanghai - Chinese a consumer society - They buy Mercedes and Gucci * Energy will be China's choke point - They do not have enough energy in the country * Last month China consumed more energy than the US * In the last 15 years China went from 80% rural to 60% rural - 1.4 billion times 20% = 280 million people * China buying energy assets in Sudan, Nigeria, Canada, Argentina and Venezuela * China will never sign for a carbon-constrained economy (Cap and Trade) Production and Reservoir Exploitation of Shale vs. Tight Gas Reservoirs * Currently 17% of US gas supply from shale gas * Tight vs. Shale gas - both low k - Shale has essentially no porosity - gas is in the form of absorbed gas - both need horizontal wells with multiple transverse fracs * Most important to quantify the amount of absorbed gas - Langmuir Absorption * Must know from vertical pilot hole which direction the frac is going to go * Need huge fracs > 1200' half lengths - don't need a lot of width * Must find the "Sweet Spot" in the reservoir * Don't bother with complexities with the fracture - by and large planar fractures * China the only country other than US and Canada with capability to develop shale gas but they are 5 years behind * "Texas Two Step" - Skip a frac stage and then come back later when stresses have been relieved Salam, Wikan -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PP-IAGI 2008-2011: ketua umum: LAMBOK HUTASOIT, lam...@gc.itb.ac.id sekjen: MOHAMMAD SYAIFUL, mohammadsyai...@gmail.com * 2 sekretariat (Jkt & Bdg), 5 departemen, banyak biro... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ayo siapkan diri....!!!!! Hadirilah PIT ke-39 IAGI, Senggigi, Lombok NTB, 22-25 November 2010 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send email to: iagi-net-unsubscribe[at]iagi.or.id To subscribe, send email to: iagi-net-subscribe[at]iagi.or.id Visit IAGI Website: http://iagi.or.id Pembayaran iuran anggota ditujukan ke: Bank Mandiri Cab. Wisma Alia Jakarta No. Rek: 123 0085005314 Atas nama: Ikatan Ahli Geologi Indonesia (IAGI) Bank BCA KCP. Manara Mulia No. Rekening: 255-1088580 A/n: Shinta Damayanti IAGI-net Archive 1: http://www.mail-archive.com/iagi-net%40iagi.or.id/ IAGI-net Archive 2: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/iagi --------------------------------------------------------------------- DISCLAIMER: IAGI disclaims all warranties with regard to information posted on its mailing lists, whether posted by IAGI or others. In no event shall IAGI or its members be liable for any, including but not limited to direct or indirect damages, or damages of any kind whatsoever, resulting from loss of use, data or profits, arising out of or in connection with the use of any information posted on IAGI mailing list. ---------------------------------------------------------------------
