________________________________
From: Anne & Lynn Wheeler <l...@garlic.com>
To: IBM-MAIN@bama.ua.edu
Sent: Thu, March 11, 2010 8:43:50 AM
Subject: Re: Entry point for a Mainframe?
--------------------SNIP--------------------------------

The communication group then did a corporate study that claimed that
there wouldn't be customer use of T1 until mid-90s (aka since they
didn't have product that supported T1, the study supported customers not
needing T1 for another decade).

The problem was that 37x5 boxes didn't have T1 support ... and so what
the communication group studied was "fat pipes" ... support for being
able to operate multiple 56kbit links as single unit. For their T1
conclusions they plotted the number of "fat pipes" with 2, 3, 4, ...,
etc 56kbit links. They found that number of "fat pipes" dropped off
significantly at four or five 56kbit links and there were none above
six.

There is always the phrase about statistics lie ... well, what the
communication group didn't appear to realize was that most telcos had
tariff cross-over about five or six 56kbit links being about the same as
a single T1 link. What they were seeing, was when customer requirement
reached five 56kbit links ... the customers were moving to single T1
link supported by other vendors products (which was the reason for no
"fat pipes" above six).

The communication groups products were very oriented towards to the
legacy dumb terminal paradigm ... and not the emerging peer-to-peer
networking operation. In any case, a very quick, trivial survey by HSDT
turned up 200 customers with T1 links (as counter to the communication
group survey that customers wouldn't be using T1s until mid-90s
... because they couldn't find any "fat pipes" with more than six 56kbit
links).

this is analogous to communication group defining T1 as "very high
speed" in the same period (in part because their products didn't support
T1) ... mentioned in this post:
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2010e.html#11 Crazed idea: SDSF for z/Linux

the various internal politics all contributed to not letting us bid on
the NSFNET backbone RFP ... even when the director of NSF wrote a letter
to corporation ... and there were observations that what we already had
running was at least five years ahead of RFP bid responses (to build
something new). misc. old NSFNET related email from the period
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/lhwemail.html#nsfnet

Ann

In the mid 70's we had a T1 and we muxed it and IIRC we had 1 256K chunk and 
another chunk (sorry do not remember the speed) connected up to our 3745 and it 
worked really well (except a really strange bug which took us with the help of 
chance to figure out what the issue was). We 
were exercising it and kept it busy at least 20 out of 24 hours a day. I 
vaguely remember talking about the bug with IBM at the time (we were a small 
minority user of something like this at the time as IBM apparently only had a 
few people that seemed to know this part of NCP). 
Its not too surprising I guess that IBM really did not support a full T1 but if 
my memory (its iffy here) is correct it had something to do with the speed of 
the 3745 as to why IBM couldn't support it. SInce memory fades with time and I 
only remember small pieces we did seem to be on the bleeding edge at that time.

Our bug turned out to not to have anything to do with NCP (per se) but I think 
if IBM would have had more experience they would have helped us find the issue 
sooner. IIRC there was semi documented information about lic weights (???) and 
you had to read it closely or you ended up with bad information. Sorry about 
the sketchiness but we are talking 35 years ago.

Ed




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