I’m not conflating anything. You don’t understand markets. Let’s use carburetor mechanics. These numbers are only used as an example.
In 1970, there was very likely 100,000 mechanics who could work on carburetors. Because nearly every car had one. In 2023, I’d bet it’s maybe 1000. Because very few cars have a carburetor. Those 1000 probably are doing ok financially. But, it leaves 99,000 either unemployed or retrained to work on something else. In 10 years, there will be even fewer cars with carburetors on the road. So, 500 carburetor specialists will be looking for a new skill/job. And so forth until the carburetor specialist job becomes nonexistent. Assembler is going the same route. The ones still doing it will do ok, but the numbers will (and are) in decline. Eventually going to zero. I’d venture to opine that AI is going to eliminate plenty of the current occupations in IT. And faster than many think. Sent from Yahoo Mail for iPhone On Wednesday, September 13, 2023, 5:30 PM, Bob Bridges <robhbrid...@gmail.com> wrote: Bill, it sounds to me like you're conflating two things, ie how many assembler programmers are needed with how much such a programmer can make. You've been saying the market for assembler programmers is doomed to decline (and I have no opinion to offer on that), and you conclude that therefore a specialist will make more money only until the skillset involved begins to decline. Dean, on the other hand, is saying that the few specialists who keep providing a service that's falling into disuse are going to go on working and making ~more~ money, and I think he's right. So does the DICE article you quoted. The reason is that when no one wants that skill any more, the fact is that a few people still want it and have a hard time finding it. I'm thinking not only of my own experiences but also, here, an article I read recently about the last company in the world that deals with 3½" diskettes. It's a dead market, right? But only almost - and the one company that sells them, and provides other services, is up to the eyeballs in urgent requests for help from people who really need it and can't find it anywhere else. So being skilled in providing a service that is getting harder and harder to find (and it's getting harder to find precisely ~because~ fewer employers want it) is a pretty enviable position to be in. This accords with the advice offered by Richard Bolles, the writer of the annual publication "What Color is Your Parachute?", which many of us remember with reverence. --- Bob Bridges, robhbrid...@gmail.com, cell 336 382-7313 /* Following the path of least resistance is what makes rivers and men crooked. */ -----Original Message----- From: IBM Mainframe Discussion List <IBM-MAIN@LISTSERV.UA.EDU> On Behalf Of Bill Johnson Sent: Wednesday, September 13, 2023 16:47 A generalist will rarely be unemployed. A specialist will usually make more money but only until the skillset involved begins to decline or is phased out. Assembler programming has been in decline for decades. -- From Dice.com September 2022. There’s a pervasive myth that being able to program in assembly language makes you a master programmer with deity-level skills. Yet novice programmers can also pick up the nuances of assembly language—provided they invest the time and effort. Today, assembly language finds its greatest use in compiler development and low-level engineering, with some finance applications. Some companies definitely need the talent. According to Lightcast (formerly Emsi Burning Glass), which collects and analyses millions of job postings from across the country, there were 5,088 open job postings over the past 12 months that mentioned assembly language; however, the platform estimates job growth for the language at -10.8 percent over the next two years. That’s a steep decline. Those skilled in assembly language can expect relatively high salaries, at least: Lightcast pegs the median salary for jobs requiring assembly language at $93,022, which can drift higher with the right mix of skills and experience. Jobs requesting assembly language knowledge include software developer/engineer, training and development specialist, embedded software engineer, and firmware engineer. --- On Wednesday, September 13, 2023, 4:27 PM, Dean Kent <drke...@gmail.com> wrote: My own belief (whether founded or not) is that if you follow your passion and become good at it, someone will recognize that and feel it is valuable enough to pay for it. I also believe that specialists tend to demand a higher rate than generalists. Assembler is a specialty, and while there may not be a lot of demand, the ones who do require it will pay. I compare it to, for example, I have some classic vehicles with carburetors. Not too many mechanics work on carburetors any more - but those who do have a lot of work. Fine craftsmen may not be in huge demand due to the 'production line' manufacturing of most furniture - but those who do it make good money and have plenty of work. People who specialize in repairing antique clocks, pottery, rugs, etc. may not be able to get a job anywhere - but if they are good at it, they have plenty of business. As long as the mainframe runs legacy code, there will be a need for assembler programmers. That's my opinion, at least. --- On 9/13/2023 8:52 AM, Bob Bridges wrote: > I've long observed that no matter what your employer hired you for, what you > turn out to be good at is what they use you for. At one location I was the > only one who bothered to figure out what was wrong with the big greenbar > printer when it went haywire; before I left, therefore, I was the one folks > came to when it misbehaved, and I was the one ordering supplies for it. At > another place my boss remarked, during an annual review, that "we gotta get > you on some of these team projects; we keep using you as the lone > fire-fighter for odd problems, but team projects will look good an your > resume". I nodded enthusiastically and agreed aloud, but the fact is I > ~liked~ being the guy in the corner who did the odd jobs, figuring out the > software that no one else had time for. > > I always recommend to young folks that they keep on doing what they're > interested in doing. Obviously this doesn't mean neglecting assigned tasks > that sound boring; if I don't do what my boss wants me to do then I'm useless > to him. But eventually he'll discover that he wants me to do some of the > things I'm especially good at too. > > -----Original Message----- > From: Arthur Fichtl > Sent: Wednesday, September 13, 2023 04:18 > > As a now retired freelance z/OS guy based in Munich/Germany I had to find a > market niche at my employer. Therefore I specialized on debugging, analysis > of dumps and the like. For those tasks HLASM was inevitable. > > My colleagues preferred more comfortable tasks and languages and therefore I > for myself had a quite secure job. > > And I liked it. My 1st language was the Siemens 4004 Assembler with punch > cards as the user interface. Quite funny. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- For IBM-MAIN subscribe / signoff / archive access instructions, send email to lists...@listserv.ua.edu with the message: INFO IBM-MAIN ---------------------------------------------------------------------- For IBM-MAIN subscribe / signoff / archive access instructions, send email to lists...@listserv.ua.edu with the message: INFO IBM-MAIN
