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South China Morning Post, Wednesday, June 9, 1999

EDITORIAL

Democratic example

For months, many in Indonesia - and throughout Asia - had been
looking with some foreboding towards the nation's first free
elections in more than four decades. After the rioting that
brought down former president Suharto last year, there were
fears that the polls on Monday would provoke similar bloodshed.

Thousands of ethnic Chinese fled to Singapore during the
campaign. A special army unit was formed to cope with the
expected election violence. There were dire warnings of the
economic effects of any fresh upheaval. As was shown by the
unrest last year, trouble in Indonesia can have an impact far
away, even worsening the SAR's recession.

In the event, such fears have proved groundless - at least for
now. The election campaign passed largely without incident. So
did the polling on Monday. Instead, there was an almost
carnival atmosphere in many parts of the country as voters
flocked to the ballot box to exercise their new-found right to
decide who they want to run their country.

Far from inflicting further economic damage, the unexpectedly
peaceful polls sent the Jakarta stock market soaring yesterday
to levels not seen since the start of the financial crisis
almost two years ago. The rupiah also rose, and the
International Monetary Fund played its part by releasing a
further tranche of its bailout package.

Such confidence may yet prove premature. Although it appears to
be on the road to recovery, the economy remains fragile. The
threat of political instability also lies ahead in the run-up
to the presidential election in November.

Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle
appears to have performed impressively, according to the votes
counted so far. But, if she wants to become president, Ms
Megawati will have to start setting out her policies -
something she has conspicuously failed to do so far.

With so much of her support coming only from the fact that she
is the daughter of late president Sukarno, there is a serious
prospect of her being found wanting as a leader as the prospect
of real power looms closer.

In any case, despite coming in ahead of its rivals, her party
will still fall short of commanding a majority in the 700-
member electoral assembly. That means it will have to strike
agreements with other opposition groups, such as Muslim leader
Abdurrahman Wahid's National Awakening Party which looks set to
take the runner-up position.

But experience during the election campaign offers little cause
for optimism on this score, since the two parties had
difficulty preserving even a temporary tactical alliance.

As November looms closer, the different opposition forces will
have increasing cause for discord, due to the conflicting
ambitions of their leaders. Nor is it clear how they will work
with President Bacharuddin Habibie.

Despite the apparent humiliation in these elections of Mr
Suharto's Golkar party, it would be wrong to write off the
movement and its organisation. It still has enough votes to be
a powerful force in whatever deals are struck among members of
the new electoral assembly.

There is also the wild card of the military. What role will it
play under its powerful commander, General Wiranto, who has
been repeatedly rumoured to have his own political ambitions?
With 38 seats reserved for the army, the general could still
emerge as a kingmaker.

The military also still has a key role to play over Aceh and
East Timor. The disruption of polling in these two provinces
showed the continuing ethnic tensions which may continue to
plague Indonesia in coming months.

Despite all these obstacles, the huge nation has taken a
historic step along the path towards democracy. It must be
hoped that whatever difficulties may lie ahead can be
peacefully resolved given sufficient goodwill on all sides.

Authoritarian countries which insist that allowing democracy
would provoke instability should learn from this experience.
Indonesia could become a textbook example of how allowing
people to choose their government can strengthen a country and
put it on the road to a brighter and more prosperous future.

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Didistribusikan tgl. 12 Jun 1999 jam 11:56:04 GMT+1
oleh: Indonesia Daily News Online <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
http://www.Indo-News.com/
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