---------------------------------------------------------- FREE for JOIN Indonesia Daily News Online via EMAIL: go to: http://www.indo-news.com/subscribe.html - FREE - FREE - FREE - FREE - FREE - FREE - Please Visit Our Sponsor http://www.indo-news.com/cgi-bin/ads1 ---------------------------------------------------------- ANALYSIS-Indonesia presidency risks more blood By Andrew Marshall JAKARTA, July 23 (Reuters) - Her followers have hung a banner in Jakarta proclaiming ``Megawati or revolution.'' But chances are rising that populist opposition leader Megawati Sukarnoputri will be denied Indonesia's presidency, and the risk is tipping toward further bloodshed, analysts say. Although she won the country's first free parliamentary election in more than four decades with over 35 million votes, it is not voters who will elect the president. The presidential electoral body comprises just 700 people, in which the ruling Golkar party of former President Suharto, along with Moslem parties who distrust Megawati's secular-nationalist agenda, may yet lock her out and keep Golkar candidate President B.J. Habibie in power. ``Everybody has been focused on how peaceful the elections were,'' said the head of research at a Jakarta brokerage. ``But they have opened a very dangerous possibility. Habibie could hold on to the presidency. That means serious trouble.'' The student movement, a driving force in pushing Habibie's mentor Suharto from power, has been quiet for months. But analysts say if Habibie retains his caretaker presidency, mass protests are likely and instability will hang over Indonesia. ``Worst of all is that there will be a taint of illegitimacy over this whole election,'' the head of research said. ``People will say Habibie lost the election but won the presidency. It will not be a recipe for stability.'' Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) won the June poll with 33.7 percent according to a preliminary tally. Habibie's ruling Golkar limped home second with 22.4 percent. To Megawati and her supporters this gives her the clear mandate to be president in November. But the president is elected by the 500 members of parliament and 200 appointed officials. Preliminary estimates suggest the PDI-P will have around 154 parliamentary seats, almost 200 short of the 351 needed for an outright People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) majority. Golkar is not far behind with around 120. The PDI-P signed a loose pact ahead of the election with the Nation Awakening Party (PKB) of Moslem leader Abdurrahman Wahid and the National Mandate Party (PAN) of reformist politician Amien Rais. The PKB is seen winning 51 seats, and PAN 35. But Megawati cannot rely on their support. Rais says Wahid is the best choice for president. Wahid, hedging his bets, says that while he backs Megawati, he would not reject being nominated. Megawati also has outright enemies, particularly among Moslem parties. Megawati, daughter of founding President Sukarno, is Moslem but many other leading party figures are Christian. The United Development Party (PPP) is highly suspicious of the PDI-P and says Islam forbids a woman becoming president. The PPP is expected to win 39 seats, and is part of a group of Moslem parties in a vote sharing pact that could secure 40 more. Habibie has long cultivated his Moslem credentials in the world's largest Moslem nation. If Golkar can win the support of Moslem parties, he could be in the driving seat. The military, with 38 seats, will be courted by both sides. Analysts expect it to back whichever group looks like winning. This leaves the 200 appointed officials. Some will be nominated by regional parliaments, others by interest groups. Foreign election observers have warned that their selection could be biased. Indonesians fear their loyalty could be bought. Indonesian shares and the rupiah surged in the aftermath of the June election, with foreign investors confident Indonesia's political transition would be smooth and bloodless. If this positive scenario fails to emerge, market gains could evaporate. ``Certainly the way things are going, Habibie could still win it,'' said Sani Hamid, analyst at Standard & Poor's MMS in Singapore. ``The situation is still very uncertain and we do not expect much upside for the rupiah because of this.'' Analysts say it is not too late for Megawati to fight back, but she must end her sphinx-like post-election silence and reach out to Indonesia's Moslem community. ``Megawati must maintain the momentum achieved from her better than expected electoral performance. This can be done by continuing to drum home the message that the people's view must be respected,'' said Hussin Mutalib, political science professor at the National University of Singapore. ``But having said that, she needs to quickly modify and moderate her image and that of her party from being perceived as an avowedly nationalist and Christian party to one which is prepared to accommodate a certain amount of Moslemness.'' ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Didistribusikan tgl. 23 Jul 1999 jam 09:49:56 GMT+1 oleh: Indonesia Daily News Online <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> http://www.Indo-News.com/ ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
