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Asian Wall Street Journal
July 22, 1999

AWSJ: Column: Asean's Struggle To Regain Credibility

By BARRY WAIN

(Editor's Note: This is an opinion piece from Friday's Asian Wall Street
Journal. Wain is a Journal reporter.)

HONG KONG -- The Association of Southeast Asian Nations is meeting in
Singapore to begin the painful process of rebuilding a reputation battered by
the regional economic crisis. Nothing is more important to that effort than
trying to bring order to the threatening chaos in the South China Sea.

Asean for years has failed to formulate an effective policy. It simply hasn't
responded to China's creeping assertiveness, exemplified by Beijing's
reinforcement of Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands off the coast of the
Philippines.

Now Malaysia, a founding member of Asean, has broken ranks and followed the
Chinese example by occupying new positions in contested waters. It could get
out of hand: A Philippine navy patrol boat this week chased and sank a
Chinese fishing vessel, the second this year.

Asean missed the opportunity to vigorously engage militarily superior China
from the moral high ground. With Kuala Lumpur's ill-advised action, it is no
longer possible for Asean to implicitly censure Beijing with lofty calls for
restraint.

While China is primarily to blame for the deteriorating situation, Asean has
to accept part of the responsibility. It needs to put its own house in order
before it can take the matter to the Chinese.

Singapore, which is hosting the annual Asean gatherings, is trying to produce
a communique to show a united and solid group, mindful that it has lost its
luster over the past two years. But it will take more than words for Asean to
recover its prestige.

After becoming a full house of 10 with the admission of Cambodia in April,
Asean must confront some of the tough issues besetting the neighborhood. It
will have plenty of chances - at its ministerial meeting on Friday and
Saturday, the wider Asean Regional Forum on security on Monday, and the
Post-Ministerial Conference, with Asean's so-called dialogue partners, on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

The overlapping sovereignty and maritime jurisdictional claims in the South
China Sea are complex enough, though the real difficulty is forging a common
stand when only four members are directly involved. The others must be
persuaded to join an Asean approach, since the flashpoint could cause
instability in Asean's backyard.

Of the six countries that claim all or part of the Spratlys, only Brunei
doesn't keep troops in the scattered islets, rocks and cays. At the last
count, Vietnam occupied 24 points, the Philippines nine, China seven,
Malaysia five and Taiwan one.

A report issued last year by Honolulu-based Pacific Forum CSIS identified
"creeping occupation" among a broad range of potential triggers of conflict.
Others included oil and gas exploration, armed displacement, miscalculations
and other acts of provocation.

China, the rising regional power with the most extensive claims in the South
China Sea, also has been the most aggressive in support of them this decade.
Beijing caused consternation when it let an exploration contract on Vietnam's
continental shelf in 1992 and surreptitiously erected structures on Mischief
Reef that were discovered in early 1995.

Although Beijing calls the installation a temporary shelter for fishermen
that was built without the knowledge of the central government, the
Philippines believes it is a nascent Chinese naval base. While claiming to
repair the facility recently, China converted the clusters of huts into
concrete buildings.

Unable or unwilling to attract Asean support, the Philippines has been left
almost friendless to argue its case with China. Conspicuously lacking modern
military forces, Manila backed off in the interests of good relations, the
clashes at sea notwithstanding.

Beijing has cloaked its bullying in diplomatic niceties and offers of wider
cooperation. Nevertheless, the Filipinos were forced into face-saving talk of
joint patrols with the Chinese and reduced to the indignity of asking for
joint use of the outpost.

To top it off, China announced that it didn't care to discuss the South China
Sea at the Asean Regional Forum this month, preferring as always bilateral
talks with each of the other claimants.

It isn't surprising that China opposes attempts to "internationalize" the
South China Sea confrontation and tries to keep out of any multilateral
discussions those countries "unrelated to the problem." But it is
disappointing that Kuala Lumpur should support Beijing.

Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar has been quoted as saying not
only that the topic shouldn't be on the Asean Regional Forum agenda, but that
it should be confined to claimants. He even endorsed the idea that a
settlement should be pursued on a bilateral basis, which is unrealistic given
the number of disputants.

Kuala Lumpur obviously is defensive after being caught-and photographed-by
Manila last month building on Investigator Shoal. Exposed, Malaysia admitted
it has placed people on two atolls to conduct research and combat piracy.

The Malaysians set out to grab the area in the utmost secrecy. They
fabricated a steel structure, towed it to the site and added concrete to make
a platform on which small buildings sit today, alongside a helipad.

Not that it counts for much in the current climate, but the Malaysians say
Investigator Shoal is on the country's continental shelf and that it isn't
part of the Spratlys. And the real reason they put personnel there, as Prime
Minister Mahathir Mohamad conceded, is because they feared others might beat
them to it.

China, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines all protested Malaysia's move.
Asean, naturally enough, didn't say anything.

Yet Kuala Lumpur clearly has breached Asean's five-point Declaration on the
South China Sea, signed in 1992. The second point urges all parties "to
exercise restraint with the view to creating a positive climate for the
eventual resolution of all disputes."

It has been taken to mean, among other things, that governments shouldn't
expand their presence or occupy additional spots. While it was aimed
primarily at China, it applies to all.

Asean is putting its hopes in a regional code of conduct being prepared by
the Philippines and Vietnam. Early drafts suggest it will be essentially a
combination of the Asean declaration and an eight-point code of conduct
signed by the Philippines and China in 1995, plus a bid to halt unilateral
construction.

While this should add a little more pressure on Beijing, it will be
nonbinding and is unlikely to provide the full answer. After all, China
hasn't paid much attention to the bilateral code.

Seeking to regain credibility after the economic turmoil, Asean should ensure
that its own commitments aren't flouted again by members. It also needs to
draw China into a range of confidence-building measures.

For its part, the Asean Regional Forum must display a willingness to
contribute to the reduction of tensions, or risk irrelevancy. It is
unthinkable that the forum not discuss the South China Sea. Initially, it
should craft an initiative that minimizes the likelihood of an accident, even
if it has to use track two, or unofficial, channels.

More dialogue is needed to develop the means of avoiding conflict. As the
Pacific Forum CSIS report noted, "merely desiring a peaceful outcome isn't
enough."

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Didistribusikan tgl. 23 Jul 1999 jam 09:57:04 GMT+1
oleh: Indonesia Daily News Online <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
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