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South China Morning Post
Saturday, July 24, 1999

INDONESIA

11th-hour block on poll result feared

VAUDINE ENGLAND in Jakarta

The formal announcement of final results in the June 7 election, now expected
on Monday, could yet be hijacked by manoeuvring among party representatives
on the General Election Commission.

If two-thirds of the 53-member commission fail to validate the final tally,
President Bacharuddin Habibie would most probably be asked to intervene to
break the impasse.

The problem with that approach, which was outlined by commission chairman
Rudini, is that Mr Habibie's party, Golkar, is itself a competitor in the
country's first open parliamentary poll in decades and would not be regarded
as a neutral arbiter by much of the electorate.

"The smaller parties say that the larger parties are stealing their votes,"
said Mochtar Buchori, commentator and member of the board of Megawati
Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle. "But who is stealing
from whom?"

"There is a clear inability to realise the fact that in an election there are
winners - and losers," a foreign election expert said.

The last-minute bargaining does not stop there. Ms Megawati, whose party won
the most votes, has been quietly meeting prospective alliance partners.

She is scheduled to greet her followers after the final announcement of
results, finally taking her campaign to secure the presidency into the public
domain.

"The best thing for Indonesia is to stick to the rules of the game, the game
of democracy," leading Muslim scholar and power-broker Dr Nurcholish Madjid
said.

"And the simplest thing is that the party with the most votes should be given
the chance of taking the initiative [for the presidency]."

But this scenario is by no means certain. Mr Habibie's ability to intervene
is a threat, as analysts agree it would not be difficult to persuade more
than one-third of the commission to take an obstructive position, thus
providing a "constitutional" block to the democratic process.

Ms Megawati also continues to face pressure from some Muslim leaders who are
adamant that a woman cannot be president of a Muslim country.

"The only way to overcome this is through voting in the [Peoples'
Consultative Assembly, or upper house]," Dr Nurcholish Madjid said.

"And then the ulemas [Muslim leaders] will be outvoted, or beaten. They would
not submit voluntarily," he said.

Armed forces chief General Wiranto is understood to be still eyeing the top
job for himself, either as a so-called compromise candidate, or whenever the
next civilian president trips up during his or her term.

"Yes, there is the political realism argument," said Dr Nurcholish Madjid, to
the suggestion that Ms Megawati needed military support.

"But Wiranto's support is not a guarantee that she can do what she wants.

"She should still go to Gus Dur [Abdurrahman Wahid] and Amien Rais," he said,
referring to the two reformist runners-up. "She has not lost these
opportunities yet."

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Didistribusikan tgl. 24 Jul 1999 jam 04:36:44 GMT+1
oleh: Indonesia Daily News Online <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
http://www.Indo-News.com/
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