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SUPANGKAT'S COLUMN:

    PAKISTAN MILITARY COUP, AN INSPIRATION FOR INDON.ARMY?

A military coup d'etat in Pakistan is almost a tradition. Mainly because its
geo-
political paranoia with India on the problem of Jammu Kashmir. The military
knew
that this paranoia could be used as some kind of justification for a military
take-
over of power which could neutralize the civilian's resentment.

And general Musharif did just that: he was supported by the fundamentalist
Mus-
lims for creating a guerilla pocket within Jammu Kashmir while PM Sharif at
the request of President Clinton withdrew them and finally fired the chief
general
while he was on visit to Srilangka.

We have to admit that there is no slightest analogy between the motives and
the
goals of the military in Pakistan and in Indonesia. But a coup d'etat
certainly is
a strong vibration too strong to be ignored by the beleaguered Indonesian Army
who tried in vain to rehabilitate its image since the massacres in Aceh, East
Ti-
mor, in Ambon and even in Jakarta.

Is desperation strong enough a motive to stage a coup when we had a first
free and open election in 44 years?

There is almost a deadlock in the MPR, apparently a game played by the
fraction
of the Armed Forces by way of divide et impera which could be used as a
pretext
to take over power one way of the other. Perhaps not a fullblood coup but
some-
thing in the spirit of a coup.

Moreover, within a couple of days the Army's abortive coup led by general
Nasu-
tion on October 17, 1952 will undoubtly inspire some nutty Army officers.

When Nasution stage a coup, he did not do a bloodshed, he just surrounded the
Parliament and the Merdeka Palace with his infantry, pointing cannons to the
buildings and demanded President Sukarno to abrogate the Parliament whom he
saw as wasting the time by debating the national issues. It was only 7 years
after independence and 3  years after the Dutch souvereignity hand-over.

If Prabowo was still in the Army probably this is possible. Is there another
Prabowo,
perhaps a young colonel who are desperate enough to do the coup?
It is inconceivable and General Wiranto or others are too smart to stage a
coup
right now, eventhough the economic and political situation is rife.

Th Golkar is still loyal to the Army as ever but they are in big trouble
within
themselves.

The rationale for a coup in Indonesia is very weak indeed. The desperados
are not many and if there is any, they are lacking strong motivation for a
coup
d'etat.

I hope I am not wrong on this one.

New York, October 13, 1999.

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Didistribusikan tgl. 13 Oct 1999 jam 16:18:03 GMT+1
oleh: Indonesia Daily News Online <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
http://www.Indo-News.com/
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