Dear David
I have sent the following reply to the writer of this article;
Your article- Can Anti-Western Sentiment Save Indonesia?
Dear Friend
I recently read your article regarding anti- Western demonstrations in
Indonesia - an interesting comparison between Indonesia and China. But your
article seemed to actually analyse the situation from the Indonesian
government's point of view especially the heading above -- rather than from
the point of view of the Indonesian people - it is clear that change is
occuring in Indonesia - in a process more easily comparable to the rise of
People Power and the end of the Marcos era in the Phillipines.
The issues in Indonesia have become very complex but hopefully the people
will not be fooled by the smoke screen which the military is trying to use
by scape-goating Australia and the West over East Timor.
Even the press has noted that the anti-Australian protesters seem to be
rent - a crowd whereas the protesters against military control in front of
the Parliament were the real thing - although some friends suggested that
there may have been military - produced molotov cocktails in use by
provocoteurs which accelerated the violent nature of the clashes in which 7
Indonesian students died.
I would suggest a more appropriate heading would be - Will the Indonesian
Military Succeed in Saving Themselves by Promoting Anti-Western Sentiment?
Best wishes
J Shelley.
>
>Para Indoz-netters,
>
>Ini ada artikel lagi. Silahkan berkomentar.
>
>Can Anti-Western Sentiment Save Indonesia?
>October 4, 1999
>
>Summary
>
>Anti-foreign sentiment, sparked by Australian-led
>international intervention in East Timor, has
>triggered demonstrations and protests in Indonesia,
>primarily directed against Australia, but also against
>the United States and the United Nations. The surge in
>anti-Western protests in a restless Indonesia bears
>some similarities to those in China following the U.S.
>bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. Indonesia
>is now hoping to imitate Beijing's relative success in
>refocusing the people's frustrations away from the
>state and toward foreign powers. However, though the
>backlash from the embassy bombing allowed the
>controlled venting of pressures in China, it is not
>clear that Indonesia will be able control such a
>potentially volatile scheme.
>
>Analysis
>
>Since the arrival of the Australian-led International
>Force for East Timor (INTERFET) troops in Dili Sept.
>20, demonstrations against Australians, the United
>Nations and the United States have spread across
>Indonesia. Such protests were already heating up prior
>to the deployment of INTERFET, fueled by accusations
>that Australia was taking the side of the East
>Timorese independence rebels and interfering in
>Indonesia's domestic affairs.
>
>Rather than work to curb anti-western feelings, the
>Indonesian government has fanned the flames, cutting
>off some trade with Australia and offering to help
>businesses reduce their dependence on Australian
>products. As well, the Indonesian media, including the
>official Antara news agency, have run stories accusing
>the Australian troops of atrocities in East Timor.
>
>The arrival of foreign troops in East Timor put
>Indonesia in a similar situation to that in China
>following the U.S. bombing of the Chinese Embassy in
>Belgrade in May. In both countries, latent unrest
>against the government was building in response to
>economic and social pressures. Likewise, in both
>countries, a spontaneous response by the population
>against what was seen as the foreign aggressor offered
>the opportunity to divert attention away from domestic
>problems - at least temporarily.
>
>In both China and Indonesia, the government took
>advantage of the rise in anti-western sentiment to
>encourage a surge in nationalism, refocus the populace
>away from domestic difficulties and offer a pressure
>outlet for a disaffected public. While there are
>similarities between the situations in each country,
>the differences will likely have a strong bearing on
>the method's effectiveness in Indonesia.
>
>>From the outset, 1999 was pegged as a potentially
>troubling year for China. The year marks several
>particularly sensitive dates, including the 10th
>anniversary of the Tiananmen Square incident and the
>50th anniversary of the founding of the People's
>Republic of China.
>
>Earlier in the year, China was plagued by a series of
>bombings and pensioners protested over the
>government's failure to pay. Economic and social
>pressures were further expanded with a massive
>military reduction underway, and nationwide layoffs as
>a result of economic reforms. While the government
>brought the overt expression of the public
>dissatisfaction under control, tensions still
>remained.
>
>Rather than solve the underlying problems creating
>social unrest, the government reaction was to push
>them further down. In the midst of this simmering
>pressure cooker and just one month before the
>Tiananmen Square anniversary, by chance, luck, or
>fate, a potential solution was dropped in the lap of
>the government in Beijing: the U.S. bombing of the
>Chinese Embassy in Belgrade.
>
>The embassy bombing triggered an instant outpouring of
>public anger at the United States. Rather than repress
>the protests, the Chinese government chose to exploit
>them. The government permitted often violent
>demonstrations outside the U.S. Embassy and
>consulates, let thousands of students march through
>Tiananmen Square with anti-American posters and
>slogans and perpetuated the protests by delaying the
>public release of apologies and condolences from U.S.
>President Bill Clinton until May 11. Just as protests
>were getting rowdier and more steam was gathering,
>Beijing demonstrated its careful control of the
>situation and bottled the dissent.
>
>Indonesia has now been offered a similar opportunity
>to divert public angst away from the country's many
>economic and political problems. However, the
>underlying situation in Indonesia at this time is
>quite different from that of China in May. While open
>dissent in China had largely been stifled prior to the
>embassy bombing, Indonesia has been fraught with
>anti-government and anti-military demonstrations on a
>daily basis.
>
>More than just growing dissatisfaction with the
>results of economic reforms, Indonesians are
>protesting government scandals, the continued
>avoidance of bringing justice against former President
>Suharto and the perceived increase in military power.
>Also, separatist movements, the vote in East Timor and
>the government approval of foreign peacekeepers in the
>province have added to the unrest.
>
>As well, while China possessed a relatively stable
>government during the May demonstrations, Indonesia is
>currently undergoing a transition to its first truly
>democratically elected government in decades. With
>this innate political instability, it is questionable
>whether the Indonesian government can exercise the
>control necessary to prevent the venting of anger from
>escalating into broader social uprising. Despite the
>potential for things to get out of hand, the
>government appears to be carrying on with attempts to
>exploit the situation in East Timor in an effort to
>rebuild nationalist feelings in Indonesia.
>
>Signs of the government's inability to maintain
>control over the situation are already appearing.
>Whereas in China the government maintained control
>over the expression of anger, giving them the ability
>to stop the protests at will, Indonesian protestors
>have already taken the demonstrations a step further.
>The Australian Embassy has been hit twice with
>gunfire, which the police and security forces were
>unable to prevent. They were "completely unaware of
>the shooting," because the shooters used silencers,
>according to National Police spokesman Brig. Gen.
>Togar M. Sianipar.
>
>Indonesia is attempting the same tactic that China
>used successfully, but without the underlying control,
>presenting the possibility of the demonstrations
>gaining a life of their own. If this is allowed to
>happen, the masses, while currently focusing on the
>Australians, could easily shift attention back to the
>domestic problems, especially during the newly
>convened parliamentary session that will determine not
>only the fate of East Timor, but also choose the next
>president of Indonesia.
>
>
>[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>© 1998, 1999 Stratfor, Inc. All rights reserved.
>
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>=====
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