CAIRO, October 22, 2005 (IslamOnline.net) Arab experts
expect the US to use the UN report implicating senior Syrian officials in
the assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafiq Al-Hariri to cow the
Syrian regime.
"This will further tighten the noose around Damascus,"
Abdullah Al-Ashal, a former assistant to the Egyptian foreign minister and
an international law expert, told IslamOnline.net.
"The US will now step its pressures further to shake the
Syrian regime to its foundation in order to get it under its
thumb."
German judge Detlev Mehlis, leading an international team
investigating the massive bomb blast that killed Hariri and 20 others in
Beirut in February, said he found "converging evidence" of Syrian and
Lebanese involvement and accused Damascus of blocking and misleading the
investigation.
The 53-page report, released in New York on Thursday, October
20, said the probe was still incomplete.
In an accompanying letter to the report, UN Secretary-General
Kofi Annan extended the mission of the team until December 15.
US President George Bush asked the UN Friday, October 21, for
an "immediate action" against Syria.
Immediately rejected the findings as "politically biased,"
Syria accused Mehlis of preparing a report to underpin Washington's
rhetorical assault on the country.
"It looks really as if Mehlis was trying his best to get
information linking Syrian and Lebanese to the killing rather than find an
answer to the key question: who assassinated Hariri?" said
Ashal.
Sanctions
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"The best way to handle the
situation is to lead the Syrian regime by the nose not to oust it,"
said Beni.
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The Egyptian expert expected the US to push for
international sanctions on Syria and the setting up of an international
tribunal to try implicated Syrian officials, especially after some of them
had been named by Mehlis.
An unedited version of the UN report said Syrian
President Bashar Al-Assad's brother Maher and brother-in-law, Maj. Gen.
Asef Shawkat, were among a group of Syrian and Lebanese officials who
"decided to assassinate" Hariri in mid-September 2004 and then planned the
murder during a series of meetings in Damascus.
Those names were edited out of the final
document.
Ashaal, however, ruled out a US military action
against Syria, opposed by heavyweight Russia and China.
"The US wouldnt risk a new military adventure and
would focus now how to weaken the regime," he said.
But Qasim Qasir, a Lebanese political analyst, said
military action remains an option.
"The report is in effect creating an optimal war
atmosphere for the wartime Bush administration," he said.
Newsweek recently
reported that the military was considering plans to conduct special
operations inside Syria, using small covert teams for cross-border
intelligence gathering.
Bargain
Akram Al-Beni, a Syrian opposition journalist,
forecast a "bargain" between Washington and Damascus to ease the
tensions.
"The Americans see eye to eye with the Israelis and
the Europeans that the best way is to lead the Syrian regime by the nose
not to oust it," he said.
Al-Beni maintained that the US fears that toppling the
Syrian regime might put the Islamists at the helm, which harms its
interests and Israel's.
"The only way out for the regime is to entrench
democracy, de-muzzle the press and unleash freedoms."
Ali Al-Amin, a Lebanese political analyst, said the US
does not have an "alternative" to the Assad regime.
"Washington would, therefore, lay more pressures on
Syria to give concessions and serve the US interests in the region," he
expected.
Citing senior US and Arab officials, The Times
newspaper reported on Saturday, October 15, that the Bush administration
has offered Syria normal ties in swap for cooperation over Iraq, Lebanon
and Mideast peace, a British newspaper reported on Saturday, October
15.
The deal hinges on full cooperation with the UN
inquiry, an end to alleged recruiting, funding and training of volunteers
to join the resistance in Iraq as well as an end to support for Lebanon s
Hezbollah and Palestinian resistance groups.
