MogadishuÂ’s Carnage, the Death of the TFG & its Fraudulent
Reconciliation
by Abdi Ismail Samatar; April 05, 2007 Introduction
The European Union (EU) and the United States have “urged” Somalia’s weak and
illegitimate Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to negotiate with ‘moderate’
elements of the Islamic Courts and other stakeholders in order to form a
broad-based and inclusive transitional authority which can advance
reconciliation and secure peace. Such a push by the USA and EU is a tacit
recognition that the TFG is illegitimate. The EU, unlike the United States
which has supported EthiopiaÂ’s invasion of Somalia and which has endorsed the
TFG, informed the latter that it was not prepared to release funds to help the
country unless the latter committed itself to the creation of an inclusive
government. In response to the EUÂ’s demand several TFG ministers traveled to
Brussels and reported to the EU that the regime was ready to organize the
reconciliation conference in Mogadishu. Although all the details are not known
it is clear from the regimeÂ’s proposal that it will invite 3000 delegates
and manage the convention. The EU appears to have accepted the proposal and
the ministers returned to Nairobi/Baidoa in a cheery mood. Since then, the TFG
leader has declared that the invitees will be solely clan elders and
representatives, and a sprinkling of others. These developments have generated
some excitement among the TFG and donors, however, if the reconciliation
project proceeds along the lines imagined by the TFG and the funders it is
highly unlikely that the affair will bear fruitful peace and garner legitimacy
for the regime. This dim prospect for reconciliation has further been destroyed
by the indiscriminate mass murder of Somalis by the Ethiopian forces in and
around Mogadishu. The Ethiopian offensive has completely shattered any
possibility for the TFG gaining any acceptance from the Somali people. In other
words, the TFG is dead but Somalis must still move forward and work towards
genuine reconciliation.
Sterile Reconciliation
Such grim prognosis is now vindicated by the brutality visited on Mogadishu
by Ethiopian troops with the consent of the West. Thoughtful observers who were
familiar with the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)-led
Kenya-based Somali peace process in 2002/4 will recognize the un-mistakable
congruence between the proposed congress, the formula put forward for selecting
delegates, the attitude of the donors, and the modalities of the previous
convention which produced the TFG. The original argument for holding the Kenya
conference in the first place was the assumption that the Arta caucus,
1999-2000, that established the former Transitional National Government (TNG)
was not inclusive as the warlords who were invited chose not to participate.
IGAD and its international partners claimed then that the 2002/4 conference was
inclusive since all the merchants of violence were present. Despite ample
evidence to the contrary, the donors refused to heed the warning that
they were courting disaster by endorsing a fraudulent process that excluded
genuine representatives of the major stakeholders, such as civic groups and
religious leaders.
The IGAD-led convention lasted slightly over two years and had a price tag
of millions of dollars. Despite its cost in time, money, and the misery of
people waiting for peace the conference produced neither peace nor
reconciliation among Somalis. Instead, it sanctioned the warlords to concoct a
deeply contradictory transitional charter which the international community
endorsed as SomaliaÂ’s transitional constitution. A second consequence of the
affair was the selection of the overwhelming majority of parliamentarians by
warlords, who then chose a president and cabinet beholden to Ethiopia. The
Kenyan host, IGAD, and the so-called international partners who managed and
funded the conference hailed these developments as a major breakthrough.
Unfortunately, before the ink dried on the documents of the agreement the
warlords rekindled their conflicts and broke into two camps: those Ethiopia
supported, led my Abdillahi Yusuf and Ali Geedi, moved to Jowhar, and their
opponents returned to their Mogadishu base. Divisiveness among warlords and the
incompetence of the key TFG leaders disabled the new regime from making any
progress towards restoring peace and re-establishing public order.
Consequently, Nairobi and Addis Ababa remain to be the hub of Somali politics
as the former was the preferred destination of the TFG leaders as well as the
headquarters of those elements of the international community involved in
Somalia, while the latter city was transformed from the supplier of ammunition
to some of the warlords to the virtual capital of the TFG .
The stalemate between the two warlord factions was foreseen by honest
observers of the conference but IGAD managers and their international
supporters refused to come to terms with the odious establishment they have
fostered. Their contempt for the Somali people was so deep that they thought
even the worst of dispensations – a warlord authority that is a lackey- was
good enough for Somalis. Paradoxically, they were eager to get credit for
“restoring peace” to Somalia although they were disinclined to do the heavy
lifting necessary to ensure that the peopleÂ’s wishes were respected. The
creation of a dysfunctional regime incapable of doing anything right was due to
not only mismanagement of the conference in which the mediators, Kenya and
Ethiopia, were blatantly partisan, but also because the entire design of the
gathering was anchored on a deeply flawed assumption. Key IGAD states such as
Kenya accepted the scenario that clans are the natural political building blocs
in
Somalia, although Kenya has always shied away from politically Balkanizing its
population into tribes. In contrast, Ethiopia, whose political structure has
been constitutionally entrenched in tribal ethos since 1991, did everything
possible to deepen the tribalization of Somali politics as that dovetailed with
its own agenda. Further experts who advised the EU funders confounded the
consequence of SomaliaÂ’s dictatorial rule with the causes of social
fragmentation. That is, they felt that mismanagement of public affairs and the
ruthless regime aided by corrupt elite competition was not the cause of recent
social fragmentation but the neglect of genealogy as the principal base of
governance. This understanding of SomaliaÂ’s political problem is identical to
that of the warlords. Hence, the funders missed to appreciate that political
genealogy is a product of dictatorship rather than Somali tradition and
therefore they were unable to distinguish between the appearances of
genealogy from its instrumentalist use by the elite who were eager to raid
public resources and monopolize power.
Funders have not been keen to know other feasible explanation of SomaliaÂ’s
catastrophe and they have been most skeptical about any Somali civic project.
In essence, they do not want to be bothered with more complex analysis of the
problem despite the fact that they have spent significant amount of money and
energy on the matter. The author came across the prevailing attitude of the
funders and their advisors. In one instance a group of European and American
staff gathered for dinner in a fancy club in Eldoret and laid out what they
considered to be the road map for the conference as well as the key items to be
negotiated. The most critical decision of the funders was the conviction that
the conference will produce a clan-based federal system. Two Somali scholars
present were not even asked what they thought about the idea as the hosts
assumed general agreement. Such a belief in federalism logically followed an
earlier decision they made which dealt with the identity of
the delegates invited to the conference. Although IGAD and the funders agreed
that clan identity was the principal yardstick used to select delegates, this
instrument was adjusted to reflect political loyalty to the dominant warlords.
Consequently, delegates were ultimately selected by the warlords and the TNG
from loyalists who ostensibly represented their clansmen. This meant that
warlords and other members of the political elite used clan identity as a
Trojan horse in selecting their supporters by creating the illusion of
representational inclusivity of clans. Unfortunately, the so-called
international democrats who funded the operation failed to recognize this
contradiction and its social implications. Most Somalis who watched the
process realized the farcical show the operation was, but hoped those entrusted
with national responsibility will somehow miraculously give up their sectarian
agenda and metamorphosize into conscientious leaders. This wishful thinking soon
withered away and the reconciliation hoax fell apart.
In the midst of this stalemate, an unexpected Somali force came to the fore
and changed the political landscape of the country for a while. The Union of
Islamic Courts took control of most parts of Southern Somalia in 2006 until
they were defeated by the American sanctioned invading Ethiopian forces in
December. Despite their setback, the Courts left behind a legacy of legitimacy
that is in sharp contrast to the illegitimacy of the Ethiopian backed TFG.
Those members of the international community who either endorsed the Ethiopian
invasion or supported the TFG have been scrambling to find a way to fabricate
legitimacy for the regime and continue to down-play the Ethiopian occupation of
Somalia. The United States and the European Union, despite their differential
stances on the Ethiopian intervention, share the idea that a government of
national unity can be an instrument for reconciliation and legitimacy for the
TFG. Neither the EU nor the USA has articulated how a
genuine reconciliation process could be possible in the presence of the
Ethiopian occupation force and sectarian TFG militias and the carnage in
Mogadishu.
The idea of reconciliation and a coalition government sounds appealing on its
face value but a closer examination of the proposed process almost guarantees
that it will replicate the enterprise that created the TFG which lacked popular
support. First, the TFG reconciliation proposal is an ill-drafted document
that is at best vague on many of the key issues. Second, the selection of
delegates to the reconciliation conference will be done by the leadership of
the TFG. Such a scheme will be a mirror image of what transpired in the
Kenya-based conference where the warlords selected their clients to create the
TFG. It also appears doubtful, just as was the case in Kenya, that any of the
major donors is prepared to demand that non-TFG stakeholders freely choose
their representatives to the reconciliation conference. Third, the TFG leader
announced that delegates to the conference will number 3000 individuals. This
unwieldy congregation is inspired by the TFG and donor idea
that the Somali conflict is clan based and therefore the widest representation
of all genealogical groups is necessary. Fourth, the TFGÂ’s reconciliation
document does not directly state what the nature of the Somali conflict is and
who exactly the combatants are that need to be reconciled. It fleetingly refers
to its military victory without specifying who it defeated and who might need
to be brought into the reconciliation process. It also completely avoids the
fact that the TFG needs to be reconciled with the majority of the Somali people
who have consistently rejected it. Fifth, the TFGÂ’s tribalist reconciliation
strategy contradicts its claim that important lessons can be learned from
reconciliation processes in Rwanda and South Africa. Ironically, Rwanda and
South Africa have rejected the ethnic explanation of their conflict and the TFG
does not seem to understand this. Finally, in addition to all of the above
problems, the horrors on the population by the Ethiopian
forces in the last few weeks have turned the entire proposition into a
grotesque parody. It is no longer a viable option.
Genuine Route to Reconciliation
The only alternative that had the potential of bringing desperately needed
legitimacy to the TFG institutions and peace to the country was the expulsion
of EthiopiaÂ’s illegal occupation of the country, and by bringing onboard
genuine representative of the countryÂ’s most legitimate stakeholders: the
Islamic courts and their followers, and members of civil society groups.
Mogadishu’s “killing fields” has blown asunder the chances that the TFG will
gain legitimacy through reconciliation. EthiopiaÂ’s heinous assault on the
Somali capital has literally killed the TFG. Despite the demise of the TFG
Somalis must come together and reconcile to restore their dignity and
independence. Such a gathering must be held soon and should involve 30
delegates whose integrity and love for the Somali people are beyond the shadow
of doubt. These individuals must produce a national charter based on the 1960
constitution and nominate a small cabinet that will be a caretaker government
for two
years. The delegates who nominate the caretaker cabinet will not be able to
appoint themselves nor will the cabinet be able to extend its mandate or be
eligible for the first post-caretaker dispensation. The only way this will
succeed is if the Somali people who have moved by the horrors visited on them
by the Ethiopian regime and their Somali supplicants enthusiastically support
this effort.
Members of the international community who have been implicated in the events
of the past four years, particularly those of the last eight months, and who
have been shamelessly silent about Ethiopian atrocities must drop their
disingenuous practice and earnestly support genuine reconciliation via this new
departure.
The principal task of the caretaker administration is to organize a genuine
political reconciliation focused on the creation of just system and responsible
government. Second, they will organize an independent constitutional commission
that will produce a genuine Somali charter to be voted on by the people before
the two years term is over. For this strategy to work and to secure the peace
and common citizenship, a program of institution building should commence
immediately.
This will require an honest international community serious about democracy
taking the lead in re-building the administrative institutions of the
government. The international community which is bound to pay for a significant
amount of the cost of building this establishment could do the following in
tandem with the Somali driven political reconciliation process. Given that an
effective public service is essential for good governance and justice, a select
group of old retired but skilled Somalis and relatively younger professionals
who are employed in international institutions, overseas universities, and
local institutions can be paired with a small number of expatriate technicians
to work on this project. None of the Somalis deployed in this manner will be
eligible for political office in the period immediately after the transition.
The purpose of this constraint on the professionals is to ensure that they do
not use this responsibility as a political platform for their
own ends. Establishing a functioning public management system that will be
handed over to the post-caretaker government must operate with a high degree of
professional autonomy as that is an essential prerequisite for accountable
government. Without such a development, the reconciliation process is unlikely
to be sustainable beyond this period. Will members of the international
community who have sanctioned the warlords, the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia
and the carnage in Mogadishu have the moral courage to undertake this effort?
All the signals point in the wrong direction! Therefore, Somali patriots with
skills and means must put their resources together to jumpstart this venture.
In a nut-shell, Abdullahi Yusuf has shown his true colors with his tribalist
ranting and the TFG has died with the carnage in Mogadishu. It is now or
never for Somali patriots to stand-up.
http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=2&ItemID=12513
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