Out of Iraq, into the White House?
The Iraqi prime minister's support of Barack Obama's troop exit plan is the
biggest story of the election campaign so far
*
* Michael Tomasky
* guardian.co.uk,
* Monday July 21, 2008
Boy would I have liked to have been tapping the phone lines between Washington
and Baghdad on Saturday afternoon.
I would love to know exactly what people in the Bush White House were saying to
one another, and more importantly what they were saying to Baghdad, after Der
Spiegel published its now-famous interview with the Iraqi prime minister, Nouri
al-Maliki, in which he in essence endorsed Barack Obama's withdrawal timetable.
Bush officials acknowledged on Sunday that they did indeed call the Maliki
government for, ah, clarification. I bet they did.
A Maliki spokesman walked the statement back that same day, but unpersuasively.
The New York Times made it a point to get the tape from Der Spiegel and provide
its own translation in today's editions. The Times says Maliki said: "Obama's
remarks that – if he takes office – in 16 months he would withdraw the forces,
we think that this period could increase or decrease a little, but that it
could be suitable to end the presence of the forces in Iraq … Who wants to exit
in a quicker way has a better assessment of the situation in Iraq."
If that's not a functional endorsement of one candidate's position over the
other, then there's no such thing. But don't take my word for it. Take Bush's.
On Saturday morning, when Reuters first moved a story based on the Der Spiegel
interview, the White House – which commonly sends emails to journalists
flogging news stories that defend its positions or actions – mistakenly sent
its press list an email based on the Reuters piece with the subject heading:
"Iraq PM backs Obama troop exit plan."
Marc Ambinder of the Atlantic had the right read on the importance of this over
the weekend: "This puts John McCain in an extremely precarious spot: what's
left to argue? To argue against Maliki would be to predicate that Iraqi
sovereignty at this point means nothing." Ambinder received an email from "a
prominent Republican strategist who occasionally provides advice to McCain" who
wrote, simply: "We're fucked."
Not sure about the f-bomb, but "precarious" is certainly hard to argue with.
The McCain campaign tried to spin Maliki's comments by saying that Obama is on
the side of "unconditional withdrawal" while McCain and Maliki believe
withdrawal must be based on "facts on the ground." This is an argument, as
MSNBC put it, that "many independent analysts would find questionable" – Obama
is not for unconditional withdrawal.
That argument won't fly. Longer term, McCain's problem here is that whenever
the question of withdrawal comes up – as it will, most notably in the fall
debates – Obama can just say something like, "The prime minister – George
Bush's prime minister – supports my plan. President Bush and others, including
you, have often said that when the Iraqis are ready to stand up, we'll stand
down. Mr Maliki says they're ready. Now, John, who's more connected to the
reality on the ground?"
But there are potential pitfalls here for Obama, who must tread very cautiously
for the remainder of this trip. He arrived in Baghdad this morning. He will
meet with American commanders soon, including General David Petraeus, who has,
it's safe to say, demonstrated through his past congressional testimony that
he, like Maliki, is willing to drop political hints. Where Maliki seems to lean
Democratic, though, Petraeus goes GOP. If anything can submarine Obama's trip,
it's a leak from the military brass suggesting that they met Obama and were
unimpressed.
Second, Obama needs to be on his watch once he hits Israel. The administration
and McCain have many friends there, and Obama does not. We've always known that
the European part of Obama's tour should be the easy part – he'll be loved
there, and it's hard to picture him tripping up in such a supportive
environment. Israel will be a different matter, and I suspect GOP-friendly
operatives in the country are thinking about how to lay a land mine or two
right now (maybe with some encouragement from Washington).
Whatever happens over the course of this trip, Maliki's statement is the
biggest story so far in this general-election campaign. It will resonate
through the fall, and it started Obama's trip off on a more positive note that
he could have dared to imagine, and that frankly he did little to deserve,
aside from not being involved with the strategic mistakes made during this war.
Apparently, to Maliki, that's enough.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jul/21/iraq.barackobama
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