Sudan analyst warns of ‘protracted’ war in South Kordofan, Blue Nile
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September 12, 2011 (NAIROBI) – The war in Sudan’s southern frontiers
of Blue Nile and South Kordofan could be protracted and eventually
engulf the newly established state of South Sudan if Khartoum
continues to resist political options, according to a Sudan expert.
JPEG - 47.4 kb
Soldiers from Sudan’s army rest after gaining control of the area, at
the Blue Nile state capital al-Damazin, September 5, 2011 (REUTERS
PICTURES)
Sudan’s army clashed with fighters of the Sudan People’s Liberation
Movement North (SPLM-N) in South Kordofan and Blue Nile in June and
August respectively, giving rise to increased tension between Khartoum
and Juba which the former accuses of aiding the rebels.
Fouad Hikmat, a senior Sudan analyst with the International Crisis
Group (ICG), a Brussels-based research group, believes that the fact
that Blue Nile joined South Kordofan in the war against Khartoum is
all but surprising.
According to Hikmat, who was speaking in an interview with Sudan
Tribune, what happened in South Kordofan meant that Malik Aggar,
SPLM-N’s chairman and Blue Nile’s governor, had to eventually choose
between remaining in the government and siding with his colleagues in
South Kordofan.
Aggar, who was elected to his position in Sudan’s general elections of
2010, was sacked by the country’s president Omer Al-Bashir who
declared a state of emergency in the Blue Nile and appointed a
military ruler in it.
Hikmat explained that the government’s militarized responses in the
two states are an attempt to scuttle the SPLM-N’s strong military
force and its potential to be the vanguard of opposition to the
government.
He pointed out that the Sudanese government drives the legitimacy of
its actions from the principle of the state’s responsibility to fully
control its territories and the fact that the Comprehensive Peace
Agreement (CPA) signed between north and south Sudan stipulates that
all SPLM forces should redeploy south of the 1956 borders.
In view of Khartoum’s ruling National Congress Party’s (NCP) failure
to present an idea of how to establish political stability in the
country as well as the “unfinished business” in the restive western
region of Darfur and eastern Sudan, Fouad said, there is a possibility
that the war would escalate with no end in sight.
He further warned that a “protracted” war risks drawing in the south
and the entire region if no urgent action is taken.
The ICG analyst went on to suggest a way out, calling for an
international conference on Sudan in order to persuade the Khartoum
government to develop a program for stabilizing the country.
“If the NCP rejects this for the sake of its survival and narrow
interests, the party will be saddled with the responsibility of
breaking Sudan into pieces” Hikmat added.
(ST)
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