Plan B for Pakistan Paul Cruickshank December 27, 2007 10:00 PM
commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/paul_cruickshank/2007/12/plan_b_for_pakistan.html osing scene of Benazir Bhutto's life had a shocking aura of inevitability. The identity of the motorbike-riding assassin that shot her before exploding his suicide vest<http://www.guardian.co.uk/pakistan/Story/0,,2232619,00.html>is not yet known<http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/jason_burke/2007/12/who_did_it.html>, but the sophistication of the attack on the first day of official campaigning in Pakistan has all the hallmarks of al-Qaida. Bhutto was Osama bin Laden's nemesis. The idea of the secular, liberal and (worse still) female politician returning to govern Pakistan was an anathema to the terrorists now entrenched in Pakistan's tribal areas. "They don't believe in women governing nations so they will try and plot against me," Bhutto told CNN's Wolf Blitzer<http://quranbible.wordpress.com/2007/09/28/benazir-bhutto-on-cnn/>before returning to Pakistan this October. "I know the dangers but I'm prepared to take that risk." Bin Laden has plotted against Bhutto since she first became prime minister of Pakistan. In the fall of 1989, in the lead up to a crunch no-confidence vote in Pakistan's parliament, Bin Laden, based then in Peshawar, tried to sway the outcome by sending money to Islamabad to buy votes. According to testimony in Peter Bergen's 2006 oral history The Osama bin Laden I know<http://www.amazon.com/Osama-bin-Laden-Know-History/dp/0743278917>, Bhutto, on discovering Bin Laden's involvement, personally phoned up King Fahd of Saudi Arabia and demanded the Saudis reign him in. The Saudis called Bin Laden back for consultations and promptly confiscated his passport, cutting him off for a while from the al-Qaida organisation he had founded in Pakistan the year before. The episode presumably did not endear Bhutto to Bin Laden. In the fall of 1993 Ramzi Youssef<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramzi_Yousef>, a jihadist terrorist who had trained in al-Qaida camps in Afghanistan and who had just fled to Karachi from New York after orchestrating a bomb attack on the World Trade Center, plotted to kill Bhutto. But his plan collapsed after one of the devices he was carrying went off prematurely before he reached her Karachi estate. Bhutto was re-elected for a second term as prime minister very shortly thereafter. (Youssef, eventually apprehended, is currently serving a life sentence in the supermax facility in Colorado). As with the World Trade Center attack, al-Qaida's motto might as well be: If at first you don't succeed then try again. Bhutto's return to Pakistan this October and her high poll numbers, seriously upped the stakes for jihadists there. Before her trip she went on Pakistani television promising to make eliminating Islamic extremism from the country a much bigger priority than had Musharraf. The jihadists' answer was to dispatch a suicide bomber to her welcome-home parade in Karachi, on October 19 killing 130, one of the deadliest terrorist atrocities in Pakistan's history. Although it cannot be ruled out that the Taliban or a Kashmiri jihadist group carried out that attack and the one today, some al-Qaida involvement or coordination seems likely. In recent years, united in their opposition to Musharraf ("Busharraf") because of his cooperation with the United States, the lines between al-Qaida, the Taliban and Kashmiri jihadists have blurred, and these groups have increasingly conducted joint operations. For example there is evidence that al-Qaida cooperated with other groups in two plots to assassinate President Musharraf in December 2003, from which he barely escaped with his life. After Bhutto returned to Pakistan she displaced Musharraf as al-Qaida's top target. Just 10 days ago Ayman al Zawahiri, al-Qaida's number two, stated that Bhutto's return to Pakistan was a US plot. Given al-Qaida's long track record of carrying out political assassinations, that made her a marked woman. Al-Qaida operatives, because they have not been concerned with escaping with their lives, have been able to conduct hits on even very well protected figures over the years. In 1991 an al-Qaida operative was dispatched from Pakistan to assassinate Zahir Shah, the king of Afghanistan in his heavily guarded villa in Rome. Shah, like Bhutto was targeted because he was viewed as a secular figure who could unite his country around a different political vision to the jihadists. Shah only survived the wounds from the assassin's knife because the blade was deflected by a tin of Café Crème cigarillos in his breast pocket. Until today al-Qaida's most infamous political assassination was of Ahmed Shah Massoud, the head of the Northern Alliance, two days before 9/11. Two Belgian al-Qaida operatives were personally dispatched by Bin Laden to kill the Taliban's most formidable enemy. Posing as television reporters the duo exploded their camera shortly after they began an interview with him after gaining access to his heavily protected compound. Bhutto's assassination will severely shake Pakistan, and that makes it essential that the United States, still a crucial power-broker in Islamabad, follows a carefully calibrated strategy in the coming weeks to prevent it becoming a victory for al-Qaida. That will be difficult because it would be natural, even understandable, for the Bush administration to now throw its weight fully behind Musharraf in the name of stability. But such a move could be deeply counterproductive if license is given to Pakistan's president to continue his crackdown on the country's civil institutions. That's because Pakistan can only hope to make headway against Islamic militants and al-Qaida if a united front is formed between secular and moderate elements in the country, still easily a majority of Pakistan's population. Pakistan's coalition of Islamist parties has been polling in the single figures, while Bhutto before her death was polling above 60%. With former supreme court justices still under house arrest, lawyers simmering with anger and his poll numbers at record lows, Musharraf just does not have the popular backing to rally the nation for the hugely challenging task of rooting out Islamic extremism from Pakistan. That means that the US should press hard for any postponement (likely at this stage) in Pakistan's parliamentary elections beyond January 8 to be temporary and for safeguards to be set up to stop vote-rigging so that a government with a popular mandate can be put in place. The US should also work hard behind the scenes to persuade all the major political parties to stand in such elections. United States policy in recent months has revolved around the hope (wishful-thinking?) that a Musharraf-Bhutto, president-prime minister double act, tough on terrorism, might emerge from the elections. That is not now going to happen. But allowing Musharraf to rig elections in favour of his own party in the name of stability would be to throw the baby out with the bath water. Pakistani civil society runs much deeper than just one woman, however formidable she may have been. Bhutto's party, the Pakistani People's Party can and should be able to select a new candidate for the elections, whose lack of clout (Bhutto maintained an iron grip on her party) will be compensated at the ballot box by public outrage over today's bombings. The other party expected to do well in a future election, if it participates, is Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League. Sharif has a lot of baggage about him, having governed in an even more patrimonial style than Bhutto during the 1990s. On the campaign trail he may have been more reticent than Bhutto in calling for a campaign against Islamic extremism and may have indulged in some shrill rhetoric against US interference in Pakistan's affairs, but despite his incredible political opportunism he is still a secularist at heart. In any case Sharif is currently barred from personally standing in the next elections. That may be no bad thing. The fact that a fresh face may emerge as the new prime minister of Pakistan, from either Bhutto or Sharif's party (the likely scenario if the election is a fair one) may be a silver lining to today's tragedy given the divisiveness and factionalism of the Pakistani political scene in the last decade. Musharraf's authoritarian ruling style has given al-Qaida a recruiting tool as well as divided and confused Pakistan's secular and moderate majority. Encouraging Pakistan to freely choose a new government, when calm is restored, is essential for the country's long-term stability and the national security of many western states. Bhutto must be allowed to triumph over Bin Laden. *Making a Martyr of Bhutto* Just days before parliamentary polls in Pakistan, leading prime ministerial contender and anti-terrorism crusader Benazir Bhutto was shot dead during an election rally in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, near Islamabad. "She has been martyred," said party official Rehman Malik. The Associated Press, citing Malik, reported that Bhutto was shot in the neck and the chest before the gunman blew himself up. At least 20 bystanders were killed in the blast. Bhutto was rushed to a hospital But, at 6:16 p.m. Pakistan time, she was declared dead. ""How can somebody who can shoot her get so close to her with all the so-called security?" said a distraught Husain Haqqani, a former top aide to Bhutto, shortly after news of her death flashed around the world. Haqqani, who served as a spokesman and top aide to Bhutto for more than a decade, blamed Pakistani security, either through neglect or complicity, in her assassination. "This is the security establishment, which has always wanted her out," he said through tears. For the past several months Pakistan has been plagued by a wave of violence that has seen hundreds of civilians killed in similar bombing attacks; and hundreds more military personnel, prompting President Pervez Musharraf to declare a state of emergency. On December 16th, Musharraf lifted the state of emergency, stating that the threat had been contained. The bombings, however, continued. Just hours before her assassination, Bhutto, 54, met with visiting Afghan President Hamid Karzai to discuss the threat of terrorism against both countries. The U.S. has long supported a return to power by Bhutto, who was perceived to be a moderate willing to work with Washington on the war on terror. She was also seen as a democratic leader who would serve as a counter to the plummeting popularity of Musharraf, who took power in a 1999 military coup. It was thought that a power-sharing deal between the two, in which Musharraf stayed on as President while Bhutto lead as Prime Minister, would promote stability in this nuclear armed nation of 165 million. But from the day of her arrival in Pakistan after eight years in exile, Bhutto's return has been marred by violence. On October 18th, a pair of bombs detonated in the midst a welcome-home rally in Karachi for the former two-time Prime Minister, killing some 145 in a deliberate attempt on her life. The organization responsible for the carnage has not yet been identified, but Bhutto said she suspected al-Qaeda and some unspecified members of Musharraf's government who did not want to see her return to power. Despite the clear threat to her life, Bhutto continued to campaign publicly with the kind of mass rallies that are the cornerstone of politicking in Pakistan. "I am not afraid," she told TIME last month. "I am ready to die for my country." Haqqani, now a professor at Boston University, isn't sure what the latest bloodshed means for his country. "Will the Pakistani military realize that this is going to tear the fabric of the nation apart, and so really get serious about securing the country and about getting serious in dealing with the extremist jihadis?" he wondered. But he made clear he feels the best chance for such a policy has just evaporated. "She did show courage, and she was the only person who spoke out against terrorism," he said. "She was let down by those in Washington who think that sucking up to bad governments around the world is their best policy option." Within hours of the assasination, protests and riots broke out in Pakistan's main cities. In Rawalpindi, vegetable vendor Naeem, 25, said Bhutto's murder would hurt Pakistan's poorest, who were among Bhutto's most loyal supporters. "People were hoping her government would help the lower classes and now she is gone," he said. Syeda Asmat Begum, 73, who lives in Pakistan's capital Islamabad, told TIME that "everywhere sadness prevails. We are in fear that even our leaders are not safe from the bombardment of suicide bombers and bullets." That was a view felt around the country. In Lahore, where shops and restaurants closed and the streets emptied of people except for the center of town where Bhutto supporters gathered to vent their anger, Majid Iqbal, 26, an engineering student was trying to hitch a ride home because bus services had stopped. "People are very worried," says Iqbal, who called his family in his home village outside the city as soon as he heard the news. "If a leader of a great party is not secure, then how can the Pakistani people be secure? At this time Pakistan's future is fragile." Speaking on television outside the hospital where Bhutto died, the opposition leader Nawaz Sharif said, "I myself feel threatened... Are things in control now? Had things been in control, would this have happened?" Bhutto's rival said, "We both were struggling for the same cause, and we had signed the charter of democracy." On camera, he addressed Bhutto's supporters, "I assure you that I will fight your war from now." He said, "It is tragic not only for [her party] but also for my party." Pakistan can ill afford to sacrifice the few moderate leaders it has left. Bhutto's death will plunge the upcoming elections into uncertainty and the country further into instability. At the news of her assassination, many of her loyalists rioted in the streets of Pakistan. There will be many tense days ahead for the Musharraf government as it deals with this political crisis. And that's good news for terrorism. *With reporting by Khuda Yar Khan/Islamabad, Simon Robinson/Lahore and Mark Thompson/Washington* *time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1698472,00.html* *Bhutto killed by 'cowards': Brown* The foot soldiers of Pakistan's state-spawned Bhindranwales have snuffed out the life of Benazir Bhutto. The spectre of extremism, haunting Pakistan since it began the jihad against the Soviet Union in 1980, has taken away the leader of the only real political party in the country. Long used to directing the Bhindranwales to Afghanistan and Kashmir, Pakistan's formidable military establishment seems helpless in dealing with the jihadis operating with impunity against their own people across the country. Make no mistake. Pakistan has plunged into one of its gravest crises ever. The aftermath of Benazir's assassination in Rawalpindi is about survival of the state, not point-scoring. There is an organic link between the bomb blasts that have become a part of daily life in Rawalpindi, Karachi, Kabul or Kandahar. Al Qaeda, the Taliban, Jaish-e-Muhammad, Lashkar-e-Tayyeba are all one. Their faces differ, but they act as one. Ask President Pervez Musharraf. He narrowly escaped the jihadis, many of them from within the Pakistani Air Force, who twice attacked his convoy in December 2003. He survived by the skin of his teeth. Benazir didn't. Musharraf was the army chief, Benazir wasn't. She was the leader of a political party that had been out of power since 1997 and was making a desperate bid to ensure that the Pakistan People's Party would once again rule from Islamabad. All the signs of her killing were there. On October 19, 139 people were killed in Karachi as a victory procession went through the streets of Sindh's capital to welcome Benazir. But she continued to campaign, showing political courage where a lesser leader would have chosen to stay indoors. Far from turning Pakistan away from the politics of Islamist extremism, General Musharraf's policies of "enlightened moderation", a case of one step forward two steps back, have firmly entrenched the jihadis in the country's politics. Yes, Musharraf arrested many Al Qaeda men at the behest of the US after 9/11. But his men didn't have their hearts in the job. They didn't believe in it. Today is not the day to play the blame game. Pakistan's establishment knows what it did in the past: whom it enticed into planting bombs and hurling rhetoric. The cancer of extremism is now in its malignant phase. No Jimmy Carter, no George W. Bush can bail Pakistan out of this one. It's not about money or handouts. It's a battle for the country itself, of the safety and security of the ordinary people of Pakistan, their near and dear ones and, yes, of the rich and famous: the politicians and the generals. Benazir was more dangerous to the jihadis than Musharraf. She was a political leader who could fight the battle of ideas, who could tell people why the jihadis were not their friends. That's why she had to be killed. It's possible that the days ahead will be full of disaster and turmoil for Pakistan. The meaningless elections of January 8 may be cancelled; the army may again say that it needs more powers to maintain law and order and state stability. But more of the same is not going to help. Sometimes clichés say it all. This is a battle for the survival for Pakistan as a nation. Not for a few generals or feudals, but for the people at large. The jihadis want Pakistan to be an Islamic emirate, with an Amir-ul-Momineen: the leader of the faithful. Benazir Bhutto was everything that the Islamists stood against. She has paid the ultimate price. Will her sacrifice be in vain? afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jqdqqBFgIzAVI3hO2T3tyXSW64xA -- Jharkhand News [EMAIL PROTECTED] Jharkhand Online Network http://www.jharkhand.org.uk [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
