cid:1.1460169128@web28003.mail.ukl.yahoo.com السلام عليكم ورحمة الله
Libyan Unrest Dollar and Yen Gain on Mideast Tension Markets are kicking off the week in a lethargic mood, with liquidity tight due to the President’s Day holiday in the United States and Family Day in Canada. Growing instability in the Middle East is boosting demand for the US dollar and Japanese yen as safe havens as well as the currencies of oil exporting countries. The Canadian dollar is sitting near a high not seen since just before the financial crisis of 2008, with West Texas crude prices climbing above the $91 mark in overnight trading. Protests in Libya have escalated, with clashes between military units reported overnight. Saif al-Islam el-Qaddafi, who is Colonel Qaddafi’s son appeared on television to say that a civil war was imminent, possibly leading to “hundreds of thousands of dead” and potentially damaging crude oil production. Libya is a significant oil producer, sitting on the largest crude reserves in Africa, and pumping daily volumes that amount to more than 5% of US consumption. Protests have spread from Tunisia and Egypt to Yemen, Djibouti, Bahrain, Iran and Morocco thus far. Libya is very different from many of the other countries that have been affected thus far, with a relatively small population and high levels of foreign income. However, the population is composed of a number of ethnic and tribal groups with little in common - Colonel Qaddafi has maintained power for several decades by pitting these groups against each other. It remains to be seen whether he will be able to achieve the same feat once again. Crude oil markets will likely carry a slight risk premium until the situation is resolved. G20 Agrees to Agree on an Agreement Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 major economies concluded talks in Paris over the weekend aimed at establishing an ‘early warning system’ for global economic imbalances. From all indications, negotiations at the conference were reminiscent of the scenes often seen in kindergarten playgrounds, and China's newfound status as one of the big kids was on full display. The Chinese finance minister resisted efforts by the other 19 ministers to include currency reserves in the list of economic indicators, and ultimately refused to budge. Policymakers agreed to have the International Monetary Fund monitor "external imbalances composed of trade balance and net investment income flows and transfers, taking due consideration of exchange rate, fiscal, monetary and other policies". The objective is to reduce the possibility that large and persistent economic disparities do not lead to a repeat of the financial crisis The agreement will be enforced via peer pressure rather than obligatory targets. One suspects this would work better in kindergarten than in the real world. Thankfully, a real world test may not be required – current account deficits and surpluses are narrowing across the global economy as growth rates converge in the developed and developing worlds. Euro Gains on Tightening Outlook The euro gained against the Big Dollar over the weekend after European Central Bank Executive Board member Bini Smaghi indicated that the bank might raise interest rates sooner than expected. Mr. Smaghi said “As the economy gradually recovers and global inflationary pressures arise, the degree of accommodation of monetary policy has to be monitored and if needed, corrected”. While it may seem that he was simply stating the obvious, central bankers tend to have an agenda when saying such things. Inflation has been rising within the common currency area, although recent ECB decisions have tended to regard commodity-driven price rises as temporary phenomenon, to be discounted when setting interest rates. The markets took the smoke to indicate fire and bought the euro in anticipation of a hike in the nearer future. On the other side of the ledger, German Chancellor Merkel’s party took its worst political drubbing since the Second World War in the state of Hamburg. The Christian Democratic Union won less than 22% of the vote, ceding control of Germany’s wealthiest state to the Social Democrats. Declining support for Merkel may mean that she will be unable to fully back efforts to integrate the European economy further in the months ahead. Merkel may also have difficulty in getting any debt-fighting deal through parliament after meeting with other European Union leaders on March 25th. Yields on peripheral debt rose slightly on the news, and a note of caution entered the currency markets. Five more state elections are scheduled between now and September – two of them on March 27th. Euro traders will be keeping a wary eye on political developments in Germany for some time yet. By Karl Schamotta, Market Strategist لا تنس الصلاة على نبي الرحمة والدعاء الصالح للمسلمين.. Samer Kantakji, PhD., TCA Islamic Business Researches Center (IBRC): <http://www.kantakji.com/> www.kantakji.com مركز أبحاث فقه المعاملات الإسلامية Islamic Economics Encyclopedia (IEE): <http://www.kantakji.net/> www.kantakji.net موسوعة الاقتصاد الإسلامي Islamic Economics Group (IEG): http://groups.google.com/group/kantakjigroup مجموعة الاقتصاد الإسلامي kantakji Email: <mailto:kanta...@kantakji.com> kanta...@kantakji.com , <mailto:kanta...@gmail.com> kanta...@gmail.com Mobile:+963 944 273 000 Fax: +963 33 230 772 Tel: +963 33 518 535 SKYPE: Kantakji _________________________________ TSUالجامعة الاسكندينافية Website: www.e-su.no ترخيص رقم Org. 991 504 818 Norway عضو اتحاد جامعات العالم الإسلامي FUIW www.fuiw.org _________________________________ للاشتراك بمجموعة kantakji group قم بزيارة www.kantakji.com وبأسفل الصفحة أدخل إيميلك ثم اشتراك فتأتي رسالة لبريدك أعدها كما هي كموافقة على الاشتراك. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Kantakji Group" group. To post to this group, send email to kantakjigroup@googlegroups.com To unsubscribe from this group لفك الاشتراك من المجموعة أرسل للعنوان التالي رسالة فارغة, send email to kantakjigroup+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/kantakjigroup?hl=en سياسة النشر في المجموعة: ترك ما عارض أهل السنة والجماعة... الاكتفاء بأمور ذات علاقة بالاقتصاد الإسلامي وعلومه ولو بالشيء البسيط، ويستثنى من هذا مايتعلق بالشأن العام على مستوى الأمة كحدث غزة مثلا... عدم ذكر ما يتعلق بشخص طبيعي أو اعتباري بعينه باستثناء الأمر العام الذي يهم عامة المسلمين... تمرير بعض الأشياء الخفيفة المسلية ضمن قواعد الأدب وخاصة منها التي تأتي من أعضاء لا يشاركون عادة، والقصد من ذلك تشجيعهم على التفاعل الإيجابي... ترك المديح الشخصي...إن كل المقالات والآراء المنشورة تُعبر عن رأي أصحابها، ولا تعبّر عن رأي إدارة المجموعة بالضرورة.
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