Monsoon Watch: Daily guide to progress of rains in India
Monday, Sep 15
.
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS
The southwest monsoon this year has been statistically normal,
with
weighted average rainfall at 97% of long period average till Sep 10.
Though
rainfall has been normal, kharif sowing has been lagging in many
crops,
including pulses, coarse cereals and sugarcane. This is mainly on
account of
poor rains in July, the wettest and the most important month for
sowing.
Though the rains recovered in August, it was too late to make up for
the
initial shortfall in sowing.
.
RAINFALL
So far, rains have been just below long-period average. The
weighted
average rainfall in the country between Jun 1 and Sep 10 was 760.6 mm,
3%
below long period average of 784.7 mm. During this period, rainfall
was
deficient in five of the 36 meteorological subdivisions.
In the week ended Sep 10, rainfall was 42.2 mm, 8% below normal of
45.9 mm
for the week. Rains were deficient to scanty in 18 subdivisions during
the
week.
The following is the all-India weighted average rainfall since the
beginning of the southwest monsoon season:
.
Period Rainfall(mm) Normal(mm) Change
May 29-Jun 4 17.3 20.2 (-)14%
Jun 5-11 40.0 29.0 38%
Jun 12-18 62.4 36.8 70%
Jun 19-25 39.7 44.2 (-)10%
Jun 26-Jul 2 62.2 57.8 8%
Jul 3-9 51.0 63.7 (-)20%
Jul 10-16 53.9 66.7 (-)19%
Jul 17-23 45.0 67.6 (-)33%
Jul 24-30 64.1 68.5 (-)6%
Aug 31-Aug 6 70.0 65.4 7%
Aug 7-13 85.8 63.0 36%
Aug 14-20 60.3 60.6 (-)1%
Aug 21-27 32.7 54.0 (-)39%
Aug 28-Sep 3 35.7 49.2 (-)27%
Sep 4-10 42.2 45.9 (-)8%
Jun 1-Sep 10 760.6 784.7 (-)3%
.
The following table gives the weighted average rainfall in 36
meteorological subdivisions in the country during Jun 1-Sep 10 (in
mm):
.
Meteorological divisions Actual Normal Variation
Andaman & Nicobar Islands 1,534.0 1,463.3 5%
Arunachal Pradesh 1,380.0 1,584.5 (-)13%
Assam & Meghalaya 1,460.9 1,679.8 (-)13%
Nagaland, Manipur & Mizoram 844.6 1,095.1 (-)23%
Sub-Himalayan West Bengal 1,994.8 1,703.1 17%
Gangetic West Bengal 1,045.6 968.5 8%
Orissa 1,120.4 1,011.4 11%
Jharkhand 908.8 947.4 (-)4%
Bihar 1,024.2 893.2 15%
East Uttar Pradesh 948.8 793.0 20%
West Uttar Pradesh 782.2 684.2 14%
Uttarakhand 1,053.3 1,106.0 (-)5%
Haryana & Delhi 440.4 418.6 5%
Punjab 557.9 441.9 26%
Himachal Pradesh 623.3 695.7 (-)10%
Jammu & Kashmir 505.9 455.2 11%
West Rajasthan 264.7 245.0 8%
East Rajasthan 516.7 575.7 (-)10%
West Madhya Pradesh 629.1 812.0 (-)23%
East Madhya Pradesh 864.0 993.0 (-)13%
Gujarat Region 731.3 854.2 (-)14%
Saurashtra & Kutch 336.2 445.9 (-)25%
Konkan & Goa 2,602.8 2,604.6 0%
Madhya Maharashtra 591.5 595.0 (-)1%
Marathwada 441.8 592.3 (-)25%
Vidarbha 714.0 876.6 (-)19%
Chhattisgarh 936.4 1,069.8 (-)12%
Coastal Andhra Pradesh 526.9 462.3 14%
Telangana 711.5 656.9 8%
Rayalseema 364.6 282.0 29%
Tamil Nadu 305.9 230.4 33%
Coastal Karnataka 2,467.3 2,982.6 (-)17%
North interior Karnataka 373.9 373.5 0%
South interior Karnataka 691.6 553.7 25%
Kerala 1,537.2 1,967.7 (-)22%
Lakshadweep 924.9 860.7 7%
All-India 760.6 784.7 (-)3%
.
The following table gives weighted average rainfall in four broad
geographical regions during Jun 1-Sep 11 (in mm):
.
Regions Actual Variation from normal
Northwest India 587.5 7%
Central India 809.8 (-)9%
South Peninsula 642.8 5%
Northeast India 1,187.3 (-)6%
All-India 768.9 (-)3%
.
PROGRESS
The monsoon covered the entire country on Jul 10, five days ahead
of
schedule. The monsoon, which set in over Kerala on May 31, took 41
days to
cover the entire country. The monsoon had advanced to Mumbai on Jun 7,
three
days ahead of the normal date, and reached Delhi two weeks ahead on
Jun 15.
Last year, the monsoon had covered the entire country on Jul 4.
.
FORECAST
India Meteorological Department has scaled up its forecast on Jun-
Sep
monsoon rainfall to 100% of long-period average from earlier 99%. The
latest
forecast, based on a new six-parameter statistical ensemble model,
assumes a
model error of plus or minus 4%. Last year, Met had forecast monsoon
at 93% of
average but the actual rainfall was 105%.
Met has also predicted the rainfall over the country in July at
98% of
the long-period average. The forecast for July assumes a model error
of plus
or minus 9%.
The following are the Met's forecast on monsoon rainfall in the
four broad
geographical regions:
.
Regions Forecast
Northwest India 96% of LPA
Northeast India 101% of LPA
Central India 101% of LPA
South Peninsula 98% of LPA
.
2007 RECAP
* Last year, between Jun 1 and Sep 30, the weighted average monsoon
rainfall
for the country was 936.9 mm, which is 105% of the long-period
average. The
normal rainfall for the Jun-Sep season is 892.2 mm.
.
PRE-MONSOON
* Rainfall in the pre-monsoon season was deficient. The weighted
average
rainfall for the country during Mar-May was 115.3 mm, 14% lower than
the
average 133.5 mm for the period. Rains were deficient in 13 of the 36
meteorological subdivisions in the country during the period.
.
HISTORICAL DATA
Actual southwest monsoon rainfall, and its percentage of long-period
average
since 2000:
.
Year Actual rainfall % of LPA
(in mm)
2000 833.7 92
2001 821.9 91
2002 737.3 81
2003 919.5 102
2004 774.2 87
2005 874.3 99
2006 889.3 100
2007 936.9 105
.
KHARIF SOWING
Kharif or summer crop sowing has almost ended. Acreage in many
crops
including pulses, coarse cereals, groundnut, and sugarcane are still
behind
last year because of poor rains in July.
The following table details sowing of major kharif crops in mln
ha, and
change year-on-year in percentage terms till Sep 11:
.
CROP 2008-09 2007-08 Change (%) Normal
area
.
Rice 36.88 35.03 5.3 39.12
Maize 7.02 7.41 (-)5.3 6.37
Coarse cereals 19.52 21.01 (-)7.1 22.65
Groundnut 5.09 5.28 (-)3.6 5.35
Soybean 9.56 8.73 9.6 7.25
Total oilseeds 17.65 17.31 2.0 15.90
Pulses 10.18 12.02 (-)15.3 10.87
Cotton 9.05 9.09 (-)0.4 8.37
Sugarcane 4.41 5.30 (-)16.7 4.15
End
.
Internet links:
India Meteorological Department - www.imd.gov.in
National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting - www.ncmrwf.gov.in
IMD Agricultural Meteorology Division - www.imdagrimet.org
.
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