The BSE Sensitive Index swung inside a 1,500-point range last week, but remarkably , ended just 0.3% or 42 points higher.
The Nifty gained 0.4%, while the CNX Midcap lost 4.52%. Reliance Industries was the biggest winner among the Sensitive Index stocks with a 6.2% gain. HDFC, Maruti Suzuki, NTPC, ONGC, HDFC Bank, SBI and Tata Motors followed with gains ranging between 5.9% and 2.7%. Ranbaxy Labs was the biggest loser among the Sensitive Index stocks with a 21.4% loss. The other losers were Jaiprakash Associates, Satyam Computer, DLF, Tata Steel, Hindalco, TCS and Reliance Communications, with losses between 14.2% and 4.4%. KSK Energy was the biggest winner among the more heavily traded nonindex stocks with a 23.9% gain. Other non-index winners with gains falling between 9.9% and 5.4% were Akruti City, Punj Lloyd, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Canara Bank, Aban Offshore and Moser-Baer. Usher Agro was the biggest loser among the more heavily traded nonindex stocks with a 32% loss. Other losers were Nu Tek India, Sesa Goa, Guj NRE Coke, Gokul Refoils, Mundra Port, Unitech, Lanco Infratech, HDIL and Orbit with losses between 29.2% and 17.7%. INTERMEDIATE TREND: The indices are in intermediate downtrends, despite the strong rally on Friday, which took them to their best closings in a week. The downtrend started from the BSE Sensitive Index's September 8 high of 15,107. An alternate interpretation will be to treat it as having begun on August 12 at 15,580. The downtrend will end if the BSE Sensitive Index were to rally back above the point the decline had started, i.e. 15,107. The equivalent level for the Nifty is 4,558, and that for the CNX Midcap index is 5,822. Virtually all the major global indices made fresh bear market lows last week, with some of them (London's FTSE-100 among them) closing at a threeyear low. However, our market has been holding out better than the others lately, and managed to bounce back from the July lows. LONG-TERM TREND: The market's long-term (major) trend will turn up if the BSE Sensitive Index closes above the intermediate top of 15,580. The equivalent for the Nifty is 4,650, and that for the CNX Midcap is 6,016. A bull market still remains a possibility, provided the indices do not start falling below their bear market lows. These are roughly 12,500 for the Sensitive Index, 3,800 for the Nifty, and 4,825 for the CNX Midcap index. TRADING & INVESTING STRATEGIES: Longer-term portfolios can be gradually built up around the market's current levels. There will be some downside risk, but this is obviously a lot less than what it was when the index topped out around 21,000. Banks still look stronger than the rest of the pack, and FMCG stocks appear to be in demand. Some of the newer listings, real estate stocks and metals look vulnerable, and are best avoided for now. GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE: Many of the global markets went through even larger swings last week. They were still in intermediate downtrends, even though many were staging dramatic rallies on Friday following aggressive action taken by central banks across the world. The Dow will be back in an intermediate uptrend above 11,600 and in a possible bull market if it stabilises above 12,000. A fall below Thursday's low of 10,400 can spell a longer bear market, as that was the lowest level it had touched in around two years. The BSE Sensitive Index had lost 18.4% in the 12 months that ended on Thursday, taking it down three positions to the ninth place among 40 well-known global indices considered for the study. Slovakia now heads the list with a 3.9% gain. Belgium, Spain, Sri Lanka, Chile, Brazil and two of the Nasdaq indices are the other markets ahead of us, with losses between 2.8% and 17.5% during the same interval. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost 20.2% and the Nasdaq Composite 17.5% over the same period. (These rankings do not take exchange rate effects into consideration). http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Features/Investors_Guide/Turmoil_Redefined_Indices_in_intermediate_downtrends_/articleshow/3511081.cms You cannot teach a man anything; you can only help him discover it in himself. <<Galileo Galilei>> --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Kences1" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/kences1?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
