India Data Watch: Tracking key economic and market numbers
Friday, Sep 26
TODAY'S FOCUS: Kharif food grain output seen dn 4.7%, oilseed dn 9.5%
India's kharif food grain and oilseed output is likely to be lower
on
year despite a near perfect southwest monsoon. According to
agriculture
ministry's first advance estimates, food grain output is likely to
fall 4.7% on
year and oilseeds 9.5% on year. The news of poor agricultural
production
couldn't come at a worse time for the government, which is grappling
with a
difficult inflation situation. According to the ministry's estimates,
production of all major kharif crops, except rice, is likely to be
lower on
year. The only silver lining in an otherwise gloomy picture is that
agriculture ministry's first estimates last year on food grain and
oilseeds
were lower than this year's. Last year's kharif food grain and oilseed
production turned to be record highs. (Saji George Titus)
.
WEEK AHEAD - DATA RELEASE
Sep 26 : WMA and forex reserves as on Sep 19, and M3, bank deposits
and credit as on Sep 12, by RBI.
Sep 26 : Kharif sowing data till Sep 25, by agriculture ministry.
Sep 30 : CPI for Industrial Workers for August, by Labour Bureau.
Sep 30 : Balance of payments for Apr-Jun, by RBI.
Sep 30 : Government finances for Apr-Aug, by CGA.
Oct 1 : Trade data for August, by commerce and industry ministry.
Oct 3 : WPI inflation for week ended Sep 20, by commerce ministry.
Oct 3-7 : Power generation for September by Central Electricity
Authority.
Oct 3-10 : Core sector growth for August, by commerce ministry.
.
DAILY DATA
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date Unit Latest
Previous
FII net equity investment Sep 24 US $ mln (-)43.2
(-)215.1
Funds net equity investment Sep 24 mln rupees 308.0
(-)2,262.0
Sensex close Sep 25 Index 13547.18
13692.52
Nifty close Sep 25 Index 4110.55
4161.25
Dollar/rupee close Sep 25 rupees/US $ 46.2000
45.9700
Dlr/rupee 1-yr forward premium Sep 25 % annualised
1.43 1.28
10-yr gilt (8.24%, 2018) Sep 25 % yield
8.57 8.63
.
WEEKLY DATA
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date Unit Latest
Previous
Wholesale Price Index Sep 13 y-o-y % chg
12.14 12.14
Foreign currency assets Sep 12 US $ bln
280.30 279.63
Ways & means advances to govt Sep 12 rupees bln
9.65 109.03
Indian crude basket Sep 22 US/barrel
96.72 91.69
Southwest monsoon rainfall Sep 24 mm
48.7 35.7*
* Normal rainfall for the week
.
BI-MONTHLY DATA
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date Unit Latest
Previous
M3 Aug 29 y-o-y % chg 21.0
20.6
Banks' deposits Aug 29 y-o-y % chg 22.1
21.6
Banks' loans Aug 29 y-o-y % chg 25.3
25.9
Banks' "non-food" credit Aug 29 y-o-y % chg 25.5
26.1
# - Week ago
.
MONTHLY DATA
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Month Unit Latest
Month-ago
Exports Jul US $ bln 16.345
14.664
Imports Jul US $ bln 27.143
24.452
Trade gap Jul US $ bln 10.798
9.789
CPI for industrial workers Jul Y-o-y % chg 8.33
7.69
Industrial production index Jul y-o-y % chg
7.1 5.4
Infrastructure output index Jul Y-o-y % chg
4.3 3.4
Cement production Aug mln tn 13.32
14.66
Crude oil production Aug mln tn 2.846
2.801
Refinery output Aug mln tn 13.416
14.308
Electricity generation Aug bln kWh 59.73
60.90
Car sales Aug numbers 94,584
87,724
Commercial vehicle sales Aug numbers 34,294
34,359
Federal govt fiscal deficit Jul bln rupees 298.54
129.25
Federal govt total receipts Jul bln rupees 359.27
465.29
Federal govt total expenditure Jul bln rupees 657.81
594.54
Federal govt tax collections Jul bln rupees 394.99
557.65
FII net equity investment Aug US $ bln (-)0.512
(-)0.251
Fund net equity investment Aug bln rupees (-)3.687
14.122
FX tourist earnings Aug US $ bln 0.845
0.904
Foreign tourist arrivals Aug numbers 391,423
429,456
GSM mobile additions Aug mln 6.309&
6.793
Rail freight traffic Aug mln tn 65.27
67.69
Indian crude basket (average) Aug US $/barrel 113.05
132.47
& - Reliance Telecom subscriber addition for August taken same as July
.
QUARTERLY DATA
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quarter Unit Latest
Previous
Real GDP Apr-Jun % Growth
7.9 8.8
Balance of payments surplus Jan-Mar US $ mln 24,990
26,738
Current account deficit Jan-Mar US $ mln 1,041
5,117
Indian crude basket (average) Apr-Jun US $/barrel 118.50
93.77
.
CUMULATIVE DATA
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Period Unit Latest
Year ago
Exports Apr-Jul US $ bln 59.191
47.487
Imports Apr-Jul US $ bln 100.418
74.840
Oil imports Apr-Jul US $ bln 35.006
22.596
Trade gap Apr-Jul US $ bln 41.227
27.352
Industrial production index Apr-Jul y-o-y % chg
5.7 9.7
Infrastructure output index Apr-Jul y-o-y % chg
3.7 6.6
Cement production Apr-Aug mln tn 72.55
68.37
Crude oil production Apr-Aug mln tn 14.018
14.148
Refinery output Apr-Aug mln tn 67.771
64.669
Electricity generation Apr-Aug bln kWh 300.01
293.51
Car sales Apr-Aug number 491,538
463,858
Commercial vehicles sales Apr-Aug number 178,593
170,225
Federal govt fiscal deficit Apr-Jul bln rupees 1,159.80
1,294.08
Federal govt total receipts Apr-Jul bln rupees 1,187.40
986.55
Federal govt total expenditure Apr-Jul bln rupees 2,347.20
2,280.63
Federal govt tax collection Apr-Jul bln rupees 1,531.31
1,213.37
GDP growth Apr-Jun % growth
7.9 9.2
Balance of payments surplus Apr-Mar US $ mln 92,164
36,606
Current account deficit Apr-Mar US $ mln 17,403
9,766
Southwest monsoon rainfall Jun-Sep^ mm 859.3
864.1**
^ Jun 1-Sep 24
** Normal rainfall for the period.
.
ANNUAL DATA
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year Unit Latest
Previous
Population 2007-08 mln 1,138
1,122
Real GDP 2007-08 % growth
9.0 9.6
Per capita income (current prices) 2007-08 rupees 33,299
29,642
Savings rate 2006-07 % of GDP
34.8 34.3
Agricultural & allied activities 2007-08 % growth
4.5 3.8
Food grain output 2007-08@ mln tn 230.7
217.3
Industrial production index 2007-08 % growth
8.5 11.6
Cement production 2007-08 mln tn 168.29
155.66
Coal production 2007-08 mln tn 450.5
425.1
Electricity generation 2007-08 bln kWh 704.47
662.52
Crude oil output 2007-08 mln tn 34.12
33.99
Refinery output 2007-08 mln tn 156.09
146.55
Fiscal deficit 2007-08 bln rupees 1,298.14
1,425.73
Trade deficit 2007-08 US $ bln 80.398
59.321
Exports 2007-08 US $ bln 155.512
126.414
Imports 2007-08 US $ bln 235.911
185.735
Current account balance 2007-08 US $ bln (-)17.403
(-)9.766
Balance of payments 2007-08 US $ bln 92.164
36.606
External debt (at the end of year) 2007-08 US $ bln 221.212
169.669
Foreign direct investment inflow 2007-08 US $ bln 24.579
15.726
Car production 2007-08 number 1,416,480
1,238,021
Indian crude basket (average) 2007-08 US $/barrel 79.25
62.46
Mutual fund net equity investment 2007-08 bln rupees 160.772
90.628
Rail freight traffic 2007-08 mln tn 794.21
728.77
FII net equity investment 2007 US $ bln 17.360
9.012
Earnings from tourists arrivals 2007 US $ bln
11.96 8.93
Foreign tourist arrivals 2007 in mln
4.98 4.45
@ - July-June
.
DATA OF SPECIAL INTEREST
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date Unit
Level
Sensex 52-week intraday high Jan 10, 2008 index
21206.77
Sensex 52-week intraday low Jul 16, 2008 index
12514.99
Nifty 52-week intraday high Jan 8, 2008 index
6357.10
Nifty 52-week intraday low Jul 16, 2008 index
3790.20
Rupee's record traded low May 16, 2002 rupees/US $1
49.0800
Indian crude basket record high Jul 3, 2008 US $/barrel
142.04
.
INDIA SOVEREIGN RATING
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREIGN CURRENCY LOCAL CURRENCY
Outlook
S&P BBB- BBB-
Stable
Moody's Baa3 Ba2
Stable
.
INDIA DATA CALENDAR
Data on various aspects are released with some regularity by
different
bodies. Indicative dates are as under:
.
Sep 26 : WMA and forex reserves as on Sep 19, and M3, bank deposits
and credit as on Sep 12, by RBI.
Sep 26 : Kharif sowing data till Sep 25, by agriculture ministry.
Sep 30 : CPI for Industrial Workers for August, by Labour Bureau.
Sep 30 : Balance of payments for Apr-Jun, by RBI.
Sep 30 : Government finances for Apr-Aug, by CGA.
Oct 1 : Trade data for August, by commerce and industry ministry.
Oct 3 : WPI inflation for week ended Sep 20, by commerce ministry.
Oct 3-7 : Power generation for September by Central Electricity
Authority.
Oct 3-10 : Core sector growth for August, by commerce ministry.
Oct 6-10 : Foreign tourist arrivals in September, by tourism ministry.
Oct 6-10 : Rail freight data for September, by railway ministry.
Oct 8-14 : Automobile sales data for September, by SIAM.
Oct 8-14 : Mobile subscribers data for September, by COAI.
Oct 9-14 : Cement production, despatches in September, by CMA.
Oct 10 : Index of Industrial Production for August, by CSO.
Oct 13-20: Major port traffic in Apr-Sep, by Indian Ports Association.
Oct 20 : CPI for farm, rural labourers for September, by Labour
Bureau.
Oct 20-24: Crude, refinery output in September, from petroleum
ministry.
Nov 28 : GDP estimates for Jul-Sep, by CSO.
.
Sources: Government of India, Reserve Bank of India, Securities and
Exchange
Board of India, stock exchanges, and various industry and trade
bodies. End
.
Internet links:
Reserve Bank of India - http://www.rbi.org.in
Securities and Exchange Board of India - http://sebi.gov.in
Controller General of Accounts - http://www.cga.nic.in
Central Statistical Organisation - http://www.mospi.nic.in
Office of the Economic Adviser - http://www.eaindustry.nic.in
Finance Ministry - http://www.finmin.nic.in
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