Largest inflow of $36 b came in 2004-05.  







 

Our Bureau 


Mumbai, Oct. 10 FII investments in Indian equities, from the time they 
commenced buying in India, has amounted to $56 billion as on Friday, SEBI data 
showed. 

The value of this investment on Friday would not be $56 billion, of course, but 
how much of this is likely to be sold, marketmen were wondering. On this hinges 
the fate of Indian stocks in the near future.

More on cards? 


Going by the FII investment figures (see table) it is possible that another $7 
billion to $8 billion in equities could be shed by them, estimate analysts. 
FIIs have already sold equities worth more than $10 billion in 2008. 

Taking October as the base month, the largest increase in FII investment was 
between 2004 and 2005, when net buys by FIIs rose by $36 billion. But the 
Sensex was at 8,483 in October 2005 and FIIs are likely to hold on to those 
investments, said an analyst. Of course, this is a crude way of calculating as 
one does not know how much of those investments they have sold to re-enter the 
market, but it is a rough indication on what is to come, said one analyst.

The next large chunk of investments came in 2006-2007 (October) amounting to 
nearly $18 billion. In October 2007 the Sensex was above 18,800, much higher 
than now. 

It is this $18 billion of investments that FIIs they are likely to offload 
first to cut losses, said the analyst. 

"They would calculate on a last-in, first-out basis. What they had invested in 
2004-05 has still gained enormously from what the Sensex levels were then." 

By this estimation, at least another $8 billion can be sold by FIIs, he said. 

Uncertainty 


Mr Motilal Oswal, Chairman & Managing Director, Motilal Oswal Financial 
Services, was of the opinion that little can be said when one could not predict 
what would happen overseas. "But there are some long-term investors among FIIs 
too, entities like pension funds and so on who are not likely to sell too 
quickly."


http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2008/10/11/stories/2008101151851500.htm

When all other sins are old, greed still stays young. 
French Proverb






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