Mark Galasiewski, Asian-Pacific Fin Forecast at Elliott Wave International, sees Sensex at 100,000 within 15 years based on technicals and current patterns. He is of the view that October 2008 lows have already been breached by most markets but India did not, which is very significant. "From the pattern perspective, there was only a three wave decline down to the October lows and most of the other major world markets made what we would call a fifth wave or final wave down in this leg of their bear markets, but India is special because it has only three waves down."
Here is a verbatim transcript of Mark Galasiewski’s comments on CNBC- TV18. Also watch the accompanying video. Q: You seem to be very bullish on India. Looking at the charts of Sensex, what is your target for the Sensex in medium-term as well as the long-term, because you have a 15 year target? A: We are very bullish, in fact this is going to sound extraordinary to many people but this is all based on technicals and if the patterns we are observing are correct, the implication is Sensex 100,000 within 15 years. Q: What is your view on the Asian markets in that context, you think Asian markets will also rally or is it going to be just a regional phenomenon with Indian markets outperforming? A: Our forecast for India is based on the particular what we are calling the Indian Ocean Group, these are the markets from Pakistan, down to Indonesia, that are connected to the Indian ocean. This is very distinct from the rest of East Asia for example and very distinct from Europe and the US. Our services here in the Eliot Wave International are forecasting larger bear markets for the next few to several years in the US, Europe, Japan and even china. India and the subcontinent in particular is special. Q: Do you think that the October lows that we hit for global markets will be breached by most markets or will those lows hold? A: The October lows already have been. The fact that India did not, is very significant. From the pattern perspective, there was only a three wave decline down to the October lows and most of the other major world markets made what we would call a fifth wave or final wave down in this leg of their bear markets, but India is special because it has only three waves down. On Mar 26, 9:52 pm, Adi Shah <[email protected]> wrote: > The Bombay Stock Exchange sensitive index, or Sensex, may be breaking out > from its downtrend line, Elliott Wave said in its Asian-Pacific Financial > Forecast report > > Chen Shiyin / Bloomberg > > Singapore: India’s key stock index could be embarking on its second rally > of a five-wave cycle that may help the benchmark surpass its earlier record > high, according to technical analysis by Elliott Wave International Inc. > > The Bombay Stock Exchange sensitive index, or Sensex, may be breaking out > from its downtrend line, Elliott Wave said in its Asian-Pacific Financial > Forecast report. The index could be following the pattern of gains and > losses set between 2003 and 2008, and have already started on the next leg > of a longer bull run that can last for another 15 years, the report said. > > Prices in Sensex have just broken above a downtrend line, imitating a > pattern from 2004 that led to a strong rally, Elliott Wave said. The Sensex > rose 5.6% in the past three days on optimism US plans to rid banks of toxic > assets which will help ease the credit crisis and revive global growth. On > Wednesday, the benchmark gained 196.86 points, or 2.08%, to close the day at > 9,667.9 points. > > This five-wave cycle will include three rallies, each peak exceeding the > previous one. The first wave began with gains between April 2003 and January > 2008, while the bear market in the past year marked the second. The > prediction of this rally, or the third wave, is based on a similar pattern > of market movements within the first, the researcher said. > > The Elliott wave theory, created by US market analyst Ralph Elliott in 1938, > attempts to predict future price moves by dividing past trends into > sections, or waves, and calculating changes in value. Gainesville, > Georgia-based Elliott Wave International was founded by Robert Prechter, who > was famous for cautioning investors that stocks would slump two weeks before > the 1987 stock market crash. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ If you really liked the group offerings made available for free, support us by spreading the good word by forwarding / referring it to your friends and colleagues. Discl: Use of the Service is at any person's own risk. The data and information provided on the Website is not advice and should not be relied upon as such. 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