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Sent: Thursday, June 29, 2000 8:33 PM
Subject: [STOPNATO] FINANCIAL REVIEW: Russia in Central Asia and Caucasus


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Putin flexing muscles on oil

By Nick Hordern


Russia is reviving its influence in the Caspian basin, extending its control 
over export routes for the region's petroleum at the expense of rival United 
States-backed schemes.

At the same time, the Commonwealth of Independent States has conceded Russia 
an enlarged security role in Central Asia. At their summit in Moscow on 
Wednesday, the first chaired by President Vladimir Putin, CIS leaders agreed 
to establish a joint anti-terrorist organisation headed by a senior Russian 
intelligence official.

The new body is intended to prevent the spread of Islamic fundamentalist 
terrorism, a threat which the Russian Foreign Minister, Mr Igor Ivanov, 
described as the greatest danger to the region.

Moscow's reassertiveness shows President Putin is flexing his muscles, 
according to Dr Amin Saikal, the professor of Middle Eastern and Central 
Asian Studies at the Australian National University.

Oil-rich Azerbaijan recently announced it would import gas to meet its 
domestic power generation needs. The announcement reflected pressure from 
Moscow on the Caucasian republic to fulfil its commitment to export specified 
quantities of oil from its capital Baku through Russia's pipeline network to 
the Black Sea export terminal of Novorossiysk.

As a result, Russian influence in Baku will increase - and not only because 
Azerbaijan is likely to import the gas it needs from Russia. If Moscow 
maintains the pressure - including reported threats of economic sanctions - 
on Azerbaijan, there will be less Azeri oil available for export through the 
proposed pipeline from Baku to Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, a route 
strongly backed by Washington.

And on June 16 it was reported that PSG International, a consortium of US 
firms Bechtel Corp and General Electric, was abandoning its proposal to build 
a gas pipeline under the Caspian Sea from Turkmenistan to Azerabaijan.

This line had also been a key element in the US strategy to tie the former 
Soviet, Caspian basin States to the West through energy exports.


In the decade since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has seemed too 
feeble to contest US efforts to take the Caucasian and Central Asian 
republics, and their petroleum reserves, out of Moscow's orbit.

But in the nine months since he ordered the invasion of the breakaway 
Caucasian republic of Chechnya, President Putin seems to have reversed the 
trend.

During his recent visit to European Union capitals, he drove a wedge between 
Europe and Washington over US plans to develop its national missile defence 
scheme. With his new assertiveness in Central Asia and the Caucasus, Russian 
foreign policy almost sounds like Soviet-era diplomacy, Dr Saikal said.


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