Here in UK - Oil is v much in the news as farmers have blockaded oil refineries as a protest of petrol taxes - this has brought the private motor vehicle almost to a complete standstill but as the motorways and towns become silent of the intermal combustion engine, Tony Blair, Labour Prime Minister, sends in the police to try to breach the protest [Bill] ----- Original Message ----- From: Claudia K. White <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Tuesday, September 12, 2000 10:01 PM Subject: [STOPNATO.ORG.UK] Mexico - Oil STOP NATO: ¡NO PASARAN! - HTTP://WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK --------- Forwarded Message --------- DATE: Mon, 11 Sep 2000 21:13:33 From: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Stratfor.com's Global Intelligence Update - 12 September 2000 _________________________________________ Today's intelligence is tomorrow's news. Mexico to Abandon OPEC Deal? http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/archive/DAILY.asp _________________________________________ Summary Mexico's Zedillo government appears to be concerned that oil prices have climbed too high, threatening Mexico's commercial and political interests in the United States. With the U.S. elections only two months away, Mexico may increase its oil exports as much as possible in order to score political points with Democrats and Republicans in Washington, D.C. - where soaring domestic gasoline prices are a hot political issue. The Zedillo government may also be seeking to shore up the peso against potential speculative attacks in the early weeks of the incoming Fox Administration. Analysis Mexican Energy Sub-Secretary Andres Antonius announced at the recent OPEC meeting in Vienna that Mexico "could increase" its oil exports by 200,000 barrels per day "if current market conditions do not change," reported Reuters on Sept. 11. Mexico's interests within OPEC are now clashing with a significantly more vital Mexican interest outside OPEC: its relationship with the U.S. through the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Two years ago, Mexico aligned itself with The United States' top oil suppliers, OPEC members Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, catalyzing the three-fold increase in world oil prices; OPEC could not undertake serious production cuts until these three countries agreed to stop competing over U.S. market share. The oil windfall has been an important factor in Mexico's robust economic growth during the past year. The future growth and stability of Mexico depend heavily upon a strong U.S. economy. The United States is Mexico's largest trading partner, while Mexico is America's second-largest trading partner - after Canada and ahead of Japan. High oil prices barely threaten the U.S. economy, which uses a great deal less petroleum per GDP dollar than in previous years. Yet, the Zedillo government is concerned that excessively high oil prices - more than $25-28 a barrel - over a sustained period of time could eventually slow the U.S. economy and affect Mexico, which ships about 80 percent of its total exports to U.S. markets. U.S. presidential elections are only two months away, and the Mexican government does not want to offend either Democrats or Republicans in Washington, D.C. Mexican President-elect Vicente Fox would prefer a victory in November by Texas Governor George W. Bush, a staunch supporter of NAFTA who, unlike Democratic Vice President Al Gore, is not beholden to organized labor and environmentalists. However, regardless of who wins in November, raising oil exports beforehand would be a good start for the Fox administration's relations with the next U.S. government. Raising oil exports by 200,000 bpd now would also be a prudent financial move for Mexico. For the first time in more than 20 years, Mexico expects to achieve a transfer of presidential power in December without suffering a financial crisis and devaluation of the peso. However, the increased revenue stream would provide Mexico's Central Bank a cushion to defend the peso against potential attacks by currency speculators. The PRI still controls oil policy in Mexico and would not ordinarily do anything to aid an opposition government, but President Ernesto Zedillo has placed the country's economic and political stability ahead of his party's partisan interests. ________________________________________________________________ Promote global intelligence. Forward this newsletter to your colleagues and friends! __________________________________________________________________ OPEC's approval of an 800,000 bpd increase in production may fail to reduce and stabilize oil prices. Mexico's stated willingness to increase its oil exports in light of the decision also indicates a divergence of interests with Venezuela, which favors tight production controls and smaller increases in output. Mexico wants to maximize its oil export revenues without pushing the major consumer countries into a recession. Venezuela has taken the position that oil prices are currently at "fair" levels and that consumer countries should cut their internal energy taxes to achieve cheaper domestic pump prices rather than pressure crude producers to increase supply. Although Mexico has stated that it will consult with OPEC and non-OPEC producers before making any decision, such consultations would be mere diplomatic formalities. Mexico will soon boost its oil exports, and ship most or all of that increase to the U.S., raising its oil revenues, expanding its market share in the U.S., and winning the approval of key Democratic and Republican leaders in Washington, D.C. _____________________________________________________________ For more on the Mexico, see: http://www.stratfor.com/latinamerica/default.htm _____________________________________________________________ (c) 2000 Stratfor, Inc. _______________________________________________ SUBSCRIBE to the free, daily Global Intelligence Update. Click on http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp UNSUBSCRIBE by clicking on http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp _______________________________________________ Stratfor.com 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] --------- End Forwarded Message --------- xoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxox Claudia White~Main Line News~Human & Civil Rights Campaign Internationale' http://www.angelfire.com/ut/Angel1 Voice Mail #801-220-0127 ext. 0010 xoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxo Angelfire for your free web-based e-mail. http://www.angelfire.com ______________________________________________________________________ To unsubscribe, write to [EMAIL PROTECTED] Start Your Own FREE Email List at http://www.listbot.com/links/joinlb
