>socialist economy and inviting Western corporations to swarm in. (16)
>
> Western aims were clearly spelled out in the Stability Pact for
>Southeastern Europe of June 10, 1999. This document called for "creating
>vibrant market economies" in the Balkans, and "markets open to greatly
>expanded foreign trade and private sector investment." One year later, the
>White House
> issued a fact sheet detailing the "major achievements" of the Pact. Among
>the achievements listed, the European Bank for Reconstruction and
>Development (EBRD) and the International Finance Corporations are said to
>be "mobilizing private investment." By 2002, "new private investment in
> the region" is expected to reach nearly $2 billion. The Pact's Business
>Advisory Council "is visiting all of the countries of Southeast Europe" to
>"offer advice" on investment issues. Another initiative is Hungarian
>involvement with opposition-led local governments and opposition media in
>Serbia.
>
> The Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC), on July 26, 2000,
>inaugurated an investment fund to be managed by Soros Private Funds
>Management. The Southeast Europe Equity Fund, "will invest in companies in
>the region in a range of sectors." Its purpose, according to the U.S.
>Embassy in Macedonia, is "to provide capital for new business development,
>expansion and privatization." In March 2000, Montenegro signed an agreement
>permitting the operation of OPIC on its territory.
> Billionaire George Soros spelled out what all this means. U.S. involvement
>in the region, he said, "creates investment opportunities," and "I am happy
>to put my money where they are putting theirs." In other words, there is
>money to be made. George Munoz, President and CEO of OPIC was also blunt.
> "The Southeast Europe Equity Fund," he announced, "is an ideal vehicle to
>connect American institutional capital with European entrepreneurs eager to
>help Americans tap their growing markets. OPIC is pleased that Soros
>Private Funds Management has chosen to send a strong, positive signal that
>Southeast Europe is open for business."
>
> The final text of the Stability Pact for Southeast Europe suggested that a
>Yugoslavia that would "respect" the Pact's "principles and objectives"
>would be "welcome" to become a full member. "In order to draw the Federal
>Republic of Yugoslavia closer to this goal," the document declared,
> Montenegro would be an "early beneficiary." Western leaders hope that a
>future pro-Western Yugoslavia would, as has the rest of Eastern Europe, be
>"eager to help Americans" make money. (17)
>
> Western leaders yearn to install a puppet government in Belgrade, and
>place their hopes in the fragmented right-wing opposition parties in
>Serbia. In 1999, American officials encouraged these parties to organize
>mass demonstrations to overthrow the government, but these rallies quickly
>fizzled
> due to lack of popular support. When Yugoslav Federal and local elections
>were announced for July 24, 2000, American and Western European officials
>met with leaders of the Serbian opposition parties, urging them to unite
>behind one presidential candidate. Despite U.S. efforts, three candidates
>emerged in opposition to President Milosevic.
>
> At the beginning of August 2000, the U.S. opened an office in Budapest
>specifically tasked to assist opposition parties in Yugoslavia. Among the
>staff are 24 psychological warfare specialists who engaged in psychological
>operations during NATO's war against Yugoslavia and earlier against Iraq
> in the Gulf War. During those operations, the team also fabricated news
>items in an effort to sway Western public opinion.
>
> If President Milosevic is re-elected, then U.S. Secretary of State
>Madeleine Albright expects street demonstrations to overturn the election
>results and topple the government. In meetings held in Banja Luka in spring
>2000, Albright expressed disappointment with the failure of past efforts to
>overthrow the legally elected Yugoslav government. Albright said that she
>had hoped sanctions would lead people to "blame Milosevic for this
>suffering." An exasperated Albright wondered, "What was stopping the
> people from taking to the streets?" Indicating that the U.S. was casting
>about for a pretext for intervention, she added, "Something needs to happen
>in Serbia that the West can support." (18)
>
> The paths of Yugoslavia's two republics are sharply diverging. Only Serbia
>stands in the way of the West's grand scheme to integrate the Balkans into
>an economic model in which the region's economies are subordinated to
>Western corporate interests. While Serbia's economy includes a strong
>socialist component with large and medium sized firms socially owned,
>Montenegro has embarked on a program to place its entire economy at the
>service of the West. November 1999 saw the introduction in Montenegro of
>the German mark as an official currency and the passage of legislation
>eliminating socially owned property. One month later, several large firms
>were publicly offered for sale, including the Electric Power Company, the
>13th July Agricultural Complex, the Hotel-Tourist firm Boka and many
>others. (19) The republic's privatization program for 2000 calls for the
> privatization of most state-owned industries, and includes measures to
>"protect domestic and foreign investors." Three hundred firms will be
>privatized in the initial stage of the plan. In early 2000, the U.S. signed
>an agreement to provide Montenegro $62 million, including $44 million from
>the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). According to the
>agency, it will also undertake "assistance programs to support economic
>reform and restructuring the economy….to advance Montenegro toward a free
>market economy." U.S. policy advisor on the Balkans James Dobbins indicated
>that the U.S. viewed the "market-oriented reforms of the Djukanovic regime
>as a model and stimulus for similar reforms throughout the former
>Yugoslavia." The U.S. is also offering guarantees for private investors in
>the republic. Additional aid is provided by the European Union, which has
>approved $36 million for Montenegro. "From the first day," admitted
>Djukanovic, "we have had British and European consultants." (20)
>
> The Center for International Private Enterprise, an affiliate of the U.S.
>Chamber of Commerce, is providing support to the Center for
>Entrepreneurship (CEP) in Montenegro. According to the center's executive
>director, Petar Ivanovic, the organization "focuses on elementary and high
>schools," establishing entrepreneurship as a new subject to be taught in
>schools. As Ivanovic explains it, "Introducing young people to the concept
>of entrepreneurship will make them less resistant to the private sector."
>The CEP also intends to "educate government officials about the potential
>rewards of the private sector," and to help them "understand the benefits
>of economic reform and privatization." (21) According to Djukanovic, when
>he met with President Clinton on June 21, 1999, the U.S. president gave the
>privatization process a push by telling Djukanovic that the U.S. planned to
> "stimulate the economy" by "encouraging US corporations and banks to
>invest capital in Montenegro." (22)
>
> Djukanovic has moved steadily toward secession from Yugoslavia, indicating
>that he will push for separation if the right-wing opposition loses the
>September 24 election. In a phone call to Djukanovic in July 2000,
>Madeleine Albright promised that the U.S would provide him with an
>additional $16.5 million. That same week, Djukanovic blurted out that
>Montenegro "is no longer part of Yugoslavia." He also made the astonishing
>claim that he considered it a "priority" for Montenegro to join NATO, the
> organization that had bombed his country only the year before. The next
>month, Albright announced that she and Djukanovic "try and talk to each
>other and meet on a regular basis," and that the "United States is
>supportive of the approach that President Djukanovic has taken in terms of
>democratic development and his approach to the economic reforms also." (23)
>
> Western support for secession extends beyond Albright meeting and talking
>with Djukanovic. More than half of the population of Montenegro opposes
>secession, and any such move is likely to explode into violence. In
>preparation for that rift, Djukanovic is building up a private army of over
>20,000 soldiers, the Special Police, including special forces armed with
>anti-tank weapons. Sources in Montenegro revealed that Western special
>forces are training this private army. Djukanovic has requested that NATO
>establish an "air shield over Montenegro" as he moves toward secession. One
>member of the Special Police, named Velibor, confirmed that they were
>receiving training from the British SAS. "If there is a situation where
>weapons will decide the outcome, we are ready," he said. "We are training
>for that." At a press conference on August 1, 2000, Minister Goran Matic
>declared that the "British are carrying out part of the training of the
>Montenegrin special units. It is also true," he added, that the Special
>Police "are intensively obtaining various kinds and types of weapons,
>starting with anti-aircraft and anti-helicopter weapons and so on, and they
>are also being assisted by Croatia, as the weapons go through Dubrovnik and
>other places." Furthermore, Matic pointed out that, "last year, before and
>after the aggression, a group from within the Montenegrin MUP [Ministry of
>Interior
> Affairs] structure left for training within the U.S. police structure and
>the U.S. intelligence structures." In August, two armored vehicles bound
>for Montenegro were discovered in the port of Ancona, Italy. One of the
>vehicles was fitted with a turret suitable for mounting a machine gun or
>anti-tank weapon. Italian customs officials, reports the Italian news
>service ANSA, are "convinced" that arms trafficking to Montenegro "is of
>far greater magnitude than this single episode might lead one to believe."
>Revelling in anticipation of armed conflict, Djukanovic bragged that "many
>will tuck their tails between their legs and will soon have to flee
>Montenegro." (24)
>
> A violent conflict in Montenegro would provide NATO with its long-desired
>pretext for intervention. As early as October 1999, General Wesley Clark
>drew up plans for a NATO invasion of Montenegro. The plan envisions an
>amphibious assault by more than 2,000 Marines storming the port of Bar
> and securing the port as a beachhead for pushing inland. Troops ferried by
>helicopters would seize the airport at Podgorica, while NATO warplanes
>would bomb and strafe resisting Yugoslav forces. According to U.S.
>officials, other Western countries have also developed invasion plans. (25)
>Richard Holbrooke, U.S. Ambassador to the UN declared, "We are in constant
>touch with the leadership of Montenegro," and warned that a conflict in
>Montenegro "would be directly affecting NATO's vital interest." (26) NATO
>General Secretary George Robertson was more explicit. "I say to Milosevic:
>watch out, look what happened the last time you miscalculated…" (27)
>
> President Milosevic and the ruling socialist-led coalition in Yugoslavia
>enjoy considerable popular support, and many Western analysts admit they
>are likely to emerge victorious in the September 24 election. A socialist
>victory could precipitate a NATO strike, launched from Bulgaria within
>months, to
> overthrow the legally elected government of Yugoslavia. If the coup
>attempt fails, then Montenegro could declare independence, setting in
>motion a chain of events that would lead to a second all out war by NATO
>against Yugoslavia. The war in 1999 brought immense suffering to the
>Balkans. The next war promises to be catastrophic.
>
> NOTES
>
> 1) "Bulgaria - Press Review" BTA (Sofia), August 12, 2000 "Bulgaria - Us
>CIA Director's Visit," BTA (Sofia), August 15, 2000 "CIA Did Not Tell Us
>the Most Important Thing," Trud (Sofia), August 16, 2000 "Bulgaria - Press
>Review," BTA (Sofia), August 14, 2000 "Bulgaria - Press Review," BTA
>(Sofia), August 16, 2000
>
> 2) Mila Avramova, "Italians Lease Training Ground for 400,000 Leva," Trud
>(Sofia), August 9, 2000 Michael Evans, "Balkans Watch for 'Invincible',"
>The Times (London), August 26, 2000.
>
> 3) Paul Beaver, "Clinton Tells CIA to Oust Milosevic," The Observer,
>November 29, 2000. Fran Visnar, "Clinton and the CIA Have Created a
>Scenario to Overthrow Milosevic," Vijesnik (Zagreb), November 30, 2000.
>
> 4) Douglas Waller, "Tearing Down Milosevic," Time Magazine, July 12, 1999.
>
> 5) Michael Moran, "A Threat to 'Snatch' Milosevic," MSNBC, July 8, 1999.
>
> 6) "Yugoslav Police Say Killer of Local Leader Worked for Opposition,"
>Agence France-Presse, May 15, 2000. "Arrested Assassin Gutovic Member of
>Otpor and SPO," Tanjug (Belgrade), May 15, 2000.
>
> 7) "Yugoslav Official Accuses CIA of Being Behind Montenegro Murder,"
>Agence France-Presse, June 6, 2000. Aleksandar Vasovic, "Serb Aide Says CIA
>Behind Slaying," Associated Press, June 6, 2000 "Yugoslav Information
>Minister Accuses CIA of Complicity in Zugic Murder," Borba (Belgrade), June
>6, 2000
>
> 8) Statement by Richard Tomlinson, addressed to John Wadham, September 11,
>1998.
>
> 9) "Serb Consensus: Draskovic Crash Was No Accident," Seattle Times News
>Services, October 13, 1999.
>
> 10) "NATO: Milosevic Not Target," BBC News, April 22, 1999.
>
> 11) "Serbs Allege Milosevic Assassination Plot," Reuters, November 25,
>1999. "France Plots to Murder Milosevic," Agence France-Presse, November
>26, 1999. "SFOR Units Involved in a Plot to Kill Milosevic," Agence
>France-Presse, December 1, 1999. Gordana Igric, "Alleged 'Assassins' Were
>No Stranger to France," IWPR Balkan Crisis Report (London), November 26,
>1999. Milenko Vasovic, "Belgrade's French Connection," IWPR Balkan Crisis
>Report (London), November 26, 1999.
>
> 12) "Lt. Testifies at Milosevic Trial," Associated Press, April 26, 2000.
>
> 13) Aleksandar Vasovic, "4 Accused of Milosevic Death Plot," Associated
>Press, July 31, 2000. "Dutchmen Arrested, Accused of Plotting Against
>Milosevic," Agence France-Presse, July 31, 2000. Email correspondence from
>Herman de Tollenaere, quoting from NRC- Business Paper of August
> 1, 2000. "Arrested Dutchmen Admitted Plans to Kill, Kidnap Milosevic,"
>BETA (Belgrade), August 17, 2000. "Dutch Espionage Terrorist Gang Arrested
>in Yugoslavia - Minister," Tanjug (Belgrade), July 31, 2000. "Yugoslav
>Information Minister Says U.S. Behind Dutch 'Mercenaries'," BBC Monitoring
>Service, August 1, 2000.
>
> 14) "West Sees Noose Tightening Around Milosevic," Reuters, June 9, 2000.
>
> 15) "NDI Activities in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia
>(Serbia-Montenegro)," NDI Worldwide Activities, www.ndi.org
>
> 16) "Britain Trains New Elite for Post-Milosevic Era," The Independent,
>May 3, 2000. The New Serbia Forum web page,
>http://ds.dial.pipex.com/town/way/glj77/Serbia.htm
>
> 17) "Final Text of Stability Pact for Southeast Europe," June 10, 1999.
>U.S. Embassy, Skopje, Macedonia, "Southeast Europe Equity Fund Launched
>July 26," July 27, 2000. White House Fact Sheet, "The Stability Pact for
>Southeast Europe: One Year Later," July 27, 2000.
>
> 18) Borislav Komad, "At Albright's Signal," Vecernje Novosti, May 18,
>2000. "US Anti-Yugoslav Office Opens in Budapest," Tanjug (Belgrade),
>August 21, 2000.
>
> 19) Ljubinka Cagorovic, "Montenegro Assembly Scraps Socially-Owned
>Property," Reuters, November 13, 1999. "Montenegrin Government Prepares to
>Privatise Economy," Tanjug (Belgrade), December 25, 1999.
>
> 20) Central and Eastern European Business Information Center,
>"Southeastern Europe Business Brief," February 3, 2000. Central and Eastern
>European Business Information Center, "Southeastern Europe Business Brief,"
>April 27, 2000. Anne Swardson, "West Grows Close to Montenegro," Washington
>Post, May 24, 2000.
>
> 21) Petar Invanovic, "Montenegro: Laying the Foundation of
>Entrepreneurship," Center for International Private Enterprise.
>
> 22) Statement by Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic, "Important Step in
>Opening New Perspectives For Montenegrin State Policy," Pobjeda
>(Podgorica), June 22, 1999.
>
> 23) "Albright Renews Montenegro Support," Associated Press, July 13, 2000.
>"Montenegro Wants to Join NATO and the EU," Agence France-Presse, July 10,
>2000. Office of the Spokesman, U.S. Department of State, "Secretary of
>State Madeleine K. Albright and Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic,"
>Press Stakeout at Excelsior Hotel, Rome, Italy, August 1, 2000.
>
> 24) "Montenegro Ahead of Elections: Boycott and Threats," BETA (Belgrade),
>August 9, 2000. "Montenegro and Elections - Boycott Becomes Official," BETA
>(Belgrade), August 17, 2000. Phil Reese, "We Have the Heart for Battle,
>Says Montenegrin Trained by SAS," The Independent, July 30, 2000. "Yugoslav
>Information Minister Says U.S. Behind Dutch 'Mercenaries'", BBC Monitoring
>Service, August 1, 2000. "Yugoslavia Says British SAS Trains Montenegrins,"
>Reuters, August 1, 2000. "Information Minister Sees Montenegrin Arms
>Purchases, Croatian Assistance," BETA (Belgrade), July 31, 2000. "Foreign
>'Dogs of War' Training Montenegrin Police to Attack Army," Tanjug
>(Belgrade), August 9, 2000. "Montenegro: Camouflaged Military Vehicles
>Seized in Ancona," ANSA (Rome), August 21, 2000. "Montenegro: Traffic in
>Camouflaged Armored Vehicles: Investigation into Documentation," ANSA
>(Rome), August 22, 2000.
>
> 25) Richard J. Newman, "Balkan Brinkmanship," US News and World Report,
>November 15, 1999.
>
> 26) "Clinton Warns Milosevic 'Remains a Threat to Peace'," Agence
>France-Presse, July 29, 2000.
>
> 27) "NATO's Robertston Warns Milosevic on Montenegro," Reuters, July 27,
>2000.
>
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