>X-Sender: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >Subject: [gangbox] Fwd: Israel Threatens Wider War and Gives Arafat >Ultimatum > > Israel Threatens Wider War and Gives Arafat Ultimatum > > MID-EAST REALITIES - www.MiddleEast.Org - Washington - 11/2: > The Israelis have not only been busy with tanks and helicopter >gunships, > they > have also been busy with political and verbal threats of a high order. >Israel > has warned its Western patrons, both the U.S. and key European States, >that a > regional war could take place and they all have to work together. Arafat >has > essentially been told he and his entourage could also become threatened, >at the > least the infrastructure of his regime destroyed, the money that fuels >that > regime > cut. These threats have been of course substantially backed up by > unprecedented > Israeli military attacks right in their own backyard, making it clear that >if > the Israelis do not get their way they have the military power to enforce >their > will. > It is not likely the desperate "agreement" reached between Shimon Peres >and > Yasser Arafat last evening will be enforced. It wasn't really an agreement >of > course...it was much more an "ultimatum". UPI reported last evening that >Prime > Minister Ehud Barak said shortly before Peres' meeting with Arafat that >Peres > was supposed to deliver "a stern warning to the Palestinian leader to stop >the > Palestinian violence immediately." That's diplomatic language for, this >is > your > last warning, do what we tell you, "or else". > The Arafat Regime, desperate now to save itself, may well decide that >it is > now in danger of total defeat and will package what has taken place as an > "agreement" > with which it will try to comply. Doing so will require even greater > repression > that previously combined with some kind of diplomatic slight of hand to >pretend > again that a real Palestinian State is coming through Arafat's efforts. >The > CIA will be working overtime to enforce it. The Arab "client regimes" are > desperate > as well and will do what they can to prop up Arafat at this point. The > Israelis > may have other plans at this point, however, and what is taking place at >the > moment may be more a part of their public relations strategy than a return >to > the feeling that they can get what they want from a now much weakened >Arafat > Regime. > The articles below help explain the complicated backdrop to what is >taking > place today: > > > > CONFLICT MAY SPREAD, ISRAEL WARNS EUROPE > > BY RICHARD BEESTON, DIPLOMATIC EDITOR > > The Times, UK, 31 Oct: ISRAEL issued a warning yesterday that the daily > running > street battles between Israelis and Palestinians could erupt into a >regional > conflict that would engulf the Middle East and stretch across the >Mediterranean > to Europe. During a visit to London, Shlomo Ben-Ami, the Israeli Foreign > Minister, > painted a far bleaker picture of the implications of the month-long crisis > gripping > the Middle East than have previously been set out by Israeli leaders. > > Mr Ben-Ami was a leading figure for almost a decade in the negotiations >with > the Palestinians, which collapsed last month. Yesterday he appealed to >Tony > Blair > for help in persuading Yassir Arafat, the Palestinian leader, to enforce a > ceasefire > and resume talks before it was too late. He made similar calls to European > leaders > in Paris earlier in the day and today is due in Washington for talks with > President > Clinton, who has only weeks left in office to broker a peace agreement. > > Mr Ben-Ami said that the longer the present "low intensity" conflict with >the > Palestinians continued the bigger the risk that it would lead to a >regional > escalation. > There are already fears of fresh fighting on the northern border with >Lebanon, > which could drag in Syrian forces as well. Also, the militant mood on the > street > across the Arab world could force moderate leaders into direct >confrontation > with Israel. > > Mr Ben-Ami said: "This is why we say to the Europeans: 'You have high >stakes > here.' It is the stability of the Mediterranean — maybe even of Europe — >that > is at risk." > > One flashpoint that would push the street battles in the West Bank and >Gaza > into > a virtual state of war could happen on November 15, when the Palestinian >leader > has threatened unilaterally to declare an independent state. > If that happened, Mr Ben-Ami said, Israel would reluctantly respond in >kind > with > a "defensive disengagement" from the Palestinian areas. The move would > effectively > mean that the main areas of disputed land, such as East Jerusalem and the > Jewish > settlements in the West Bank and Gaza, would be incorporated into the >Jewish > state and the main Palestinian population areas sealed off by the Israeli > military. > > "We will be obliged to take measures of defensive disengagment in case the > Palestinians > declare unilaterally," Mr Ben-Ami told The Times. "A unilateral >declaration > means > you signal the end of the peace process — nothing binds > us any more." > > While insisting that he remains an optimistic and committed to a >negotiated > settlement, > he said the peace movement in Israel was in danger of collapse unless a > breakthrough > was achieved soon. > > The centre-left coalition of Ehud Barak, the Prime Minister, is holding on >to > power by a thread, and the right-wing opposition would return to power if > elections > were held today. > > "The Palestinians' response to this wave of violence is threatening to >shatter > the peace camp in Israel," he said. "We spent a lifetime trying to build a > modus > vivendi with the Palestinians. We see the work of our lives collapsing >before > our eyes. The threat is that this will be the day of the hawks — the > Palestinian > hawks and the Israeli hawks." > > Although all sides to the conflict agreed on the provisions of a ceasefire >last > month at the Sharm el-Sheikh summit in Egypt, the deal failed to halt the > violence. > The search for a solution has been complicated by next week's American > presidential > elections, which will seriously weaken President Clinton's influence in >the > region. > In part that is why Mr Ben-Ami made his appeal for help yesterday to >Britain > and other European leaders. > > > ISRAEL BRACES FOR TWO-FRONT WAR > > MIDDLE EAST NEWSLINE -Tuesday, October 31: > TEL AVIV — Israel is preparing for a two-front war as Syria appears to >have > given > the Hizbullah and its Palestinian allies the green light for attacks on >the > Lebanese > border with the Jewish state. > > Israeli defense officials said the government of Prime Minister Ehud Barak > assesses > that Hizbullah will launch attacks together with an offensive by >Palestinian > Islamic groups. They said they have intelligence information of two Hamas > squads > that have infiltrated Israel in an attempt to launch terrorist attacks. > > "There is an effort by more than one organization to carry out an attack >in the > heart of the country," Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh said. "There >are > elements that want to draw us into a conflict in the territories and on >the > northern > border." > > The officials said Syria is allowing Hizbullah to attack Israel from the > Lebanese > border. They point to the increasing shooting attacks from Lebanon on >Israeli > soldiers. On Sunday, Israeli soldiers came under fire near Kibbutz Zarit. > Nobody > was injured. > > "What worries us is that Syria does not fulfill a suitable role," Sneh >said. > "There are indications that it is acting differently. It could be because >the > situation in the Arab world, it does not have the motivation to stop this > [Hizbullah > attacks]." > > Hizbullah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah urged for greater attacks on > Israel. > Nasrallah said the Israeli policy of restraint was playing into the hands >of > the Palestinians. > > "The enemy's options are narrow," Nasrallah said. "Either they invade the > Palestinian > territories and thus the peace process would collapse or wait for a long >time > and this is in the interests of the Palestinians who are more capable of > patience." > > On Monday, an Israeli security coordinator was wounded by Palestinian >gunfire. > Earlier, an Israeli officer was lightly injured in a bombing near the >Egyptian > border with the Gaza Strip. > > In eastern Jerusalem, two Israeli security guards were shot and critically > injured. > The guards were said to have been shot at close range outside a government > office > on Monday. > > Israeli sources said the military has prepared a plan to launch an >offensive > against Hizbullah in Lebanon and the PA in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. >But > the sources said Prime Minister Ehud Barak is under pressure from the >United > States to maintain restraint. > > The sources said the military has been dismayed by Barak's policy. They >said > the army withdrew tanks from Jerusalem because Barak refused to allow them >to > respond to Palestinian gunfire by Tanzim fighters loyal to Arafat. > > Barak has warned his Cabinet that a war would only prompt massive >international > pressure. "If we would have 400 or 1,000 dead Palestinians and more >pictures > of killed children, it doesn't help Israel at all and perhaps damages >Israel," > Barak said. "God forbid, that a tank shell should go astray as in Kafr >Kanna." > > The reference was to the 1996 shelling attack on a Hizbullah position that > killed > nearly 100 Lebanese civilians. > Barak appears to have been stung by the criticism from the military. On >Monday, > officials said the prime minister approved a plan to send commandos in the >PA > areas to attack gunmen loyal to Arafat. But the officials said any attack >will > require the approval of Barak, who is also defense minister. > > On Sunday, Palestinians reported that seven people died in clashes with >Israeli > troops. The figures have been disputed by Israeli military sources. > > > U.S. FORCES ON HIGHEST ALERT IN KUWAIT, SAUDI ARABIA > > By Charles Aldinger > > WASHINGTON (Reuters - 31 Oct) - About 10,000 U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia >and > Kuwait have been put on the highest state of alert because of "credible" > threats > of possible attacks by anti-Western guerrillas, the Pentagon said. > Defence Department spokesman Ken Bacon said forces in the two Gulf states >had > been placed on "Threat Condition Delta" -- the highest protective alert >status > in the U.S. military -- following threats "involving unspecified targets". > > > The latest step in the volatile Gulf and Middle East region followed the > October > 12 deaths of 17 U.S. sailors in an apparent suicide bombing against the > destroyer > USS Cole in Yemen. U.S. troops in Bahrain and Qatar were also put on >"Threat > Condition Delta" alert after that attack in Aden harbour. > > Under the highest alert, U.S. troops carefully screen visitors to bases >where > they are located and make sure that vehicles that might contain explosives >are > not parked close to buildings. > > Bacon confirmed a report from the U.S. Embassy in Kuwait City earlier that >the > alert level of around 5,000 troops each in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia had >been > increased. > > "In both Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, U.S. forces are at the highest alert >level, > which is Threat Condition Delta," he said at the daily Defence Department > briefing. > > "It is due to credible-threat information involving unspecified targets," >Bacon > added. > > But when asked if the threats had come from any specific anti-Western >groups, > such as that headed by exiled Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden, the >spokesman > refused to elaborate. > > "I've said all I can about the threats," he told reporters. > > A VARIETY OF U.S. FORCES IN REGION > > U.S. personnel in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait include Air Force units in both > countries > that conduct almost-daily flights over southern Iraq to enforce a > Western-declared > "no-fly" zone. > > The United States has a variety of forces deployed in and around the Gulf > region. > > U.S. ground forces also are deployed in the Kuwaiti desert close to the >border > with former occupier Iraq. The U.S.-led Gulf War ended Iraq's seven-month > occupation > of Kuwait 10 years ago next February. > > The embassy in Kuwait said that the increased alert status was due to > "continued > threats and tensions" in the Gulf region. > > "Late yesterday, October 30, all U.S. military units present in Kuwait and > Saudi > Arabia were ordered, based on continued threats and tensions in the >region, to > adopt additional force- protection measures," said a U.S. Embassy warden's > message > obtained by Reuters in Kuwait. > > Defence officials, who asked not to be identified, said last week that the > "Delta" > alert in Qatar and Bahrain had followed specific threats picked up by U.S. > intelligence > against U.S. embassies in those two countries and an international school >in > Bahrain attended by American students. > > Another Pentagon spokesman said last week that the credibility of those >earlier > threats was not known. There are about 1,000 American military personnel >in > Bahrain, > which serves as headquarters for the U.S. Fifth Fleet, and another 50 or >so > soldiers > in Qatar maintaining American armour stored there. > > Bacon said on Tuesday that the threats involved in the Kuwait and Saudi >Arabia > alerts, although credible, did not involved specific targets. > > U.S. citizens in the wider Middle East were advised earlier this month to >take > extra security precautions in view of clashes between Palestinians and >Israeli > troops over the past month. >________________________________________________ > > MiD-EasT RealitieS - www.MiddleEast.Org > Phone: 202 362-5266 Fax: 815 366-0800 > Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > To subscriibe email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] with subject SUBSCRIBE >_______________________________________________________ > >GANGBOX: CONSTRUCTION WORKERS NEWS SERVICE > >GANGBOX homepage: >http://www.GeoCities.com/gangbox/ >comments? email: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > >"UNION NOW, UNION FOREVER" >**************************************** > > > >-------------------------- eGroups Sponsor -------------------------~-~> >eLerts >It's Easy. 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