http://select.nytimes.com/2006/06/29/opinion/29herbert.html

The Wreckage in the China Shop
By BOB HERBERT
NY Times Op-Ed: June 29, 2006

After all the sound and fury of the past few years, how is the U.S. doing in
its fight against terrorism?

Not too well, according to a recent survey of more than 100 highly respected
foreign policy and national security experts. The survey, dubbed the
"Terrorism Index," was conducted by the Center for American Progress and
Foreign Policy magazine. The respondents included Republicans and Democrats,
moderates, liberals and conservatives.

The survey's findings were striking. A strong, bipartisan consensus emerged
on two crucial points: 84 percent of the respondents said the United States
was not winning the war on terror, and 86 percent said the world was
becoming more - not less - dangerous for Americans.

The sound and fury since Sept. 11, 2001 - the chest-thumping and
muscle-flexing, the freedom fries, the Patriot Act, the wars in Afghanistan
and Iraq, the breathtaking expansion of presidential power, Guantánamo,
rendition, the expenditure of hundreds of billions of dollars - seems to
have signified very little.

An article on the survey, in the July/August edition of Foreign Policy, said
of the respondents, "They see a national security apparatus in disrepair and
a government that is failing to protect the public from the next attack."
More than 8 in 10 of the respondents said they believed an attack in the
U.S. on the scale of Sept. 11 was likely within the next five years.

Many of the respondents played important national security roles in the
government over the past few decades. They included Lawrence Eagleburger,
who served as secretary of state under George H. W. Bush; Anthony Lake, a
national security adviser to Bill Clinton; James Woolsey, a former director
of the Central Intelligence Agency; Richard Clarke, who served as
counterterrorism czar in the Clinton and George W. Bush administrations and
was in that post on Sept. 11th; and Lawrence Korb, an assistant secretary of
defense under Ronald Reagan.

Noted academics and writers who specialized in foreign policy and national
security matters also participated in the survey.

"Respondents," according to a report that accompanied the survey, "sharply
criticized U.S. efforts in a number of key areas of national security,
including public diplomacy, intelligence and homeland security. Nearly all
of the departments and agencies responsible for fighting the war on terror
received poor marks.

"The experts also said that recent reforms of the national security
apparatus have done little to make Americans safer. Asked about recent
efforts to reform America's intelligence community, for instance, more than
half of the index's experts said that creating the office of the director of
national intelligence has had no positive impact in the war against terror."

The respondents seemed, essentially, to be saying that the U.S. needs to be
smarter (less like a bull in a china shop) in its efforts to combat
terrorism. "Foreign policy experts have never been in so much agreement
about an administration's performance abroad," said Leslie Gelb, president
emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations and a participant in the
survey. "The reason is that it's clear to nearly all that Bush and his team
have had a totally unrealistic view of what they can accomplish with
military force and threats of force."

The respondents stressed the importance of ending America's dependence on
foreign oil, saying that could prove to be "the single most pressing
priority in winning the war on terror." Eighty-two percent of the
respondents said that ending the dependence on foreign oil should have a
higher priority, and nearly two-thirds said the country's current energy
policies were making matters worse, not better.

"We borrow a billion dollars every working day to import oil, an increasing
share of it coming from the Middle East," said Mr. Woolsey, the former
C.I.A. director.

The respondents also said it was crucially important for the U.S. to engage
in a battle of ideas as part of a sustained effort to bring about a
rejection of radical ideologies in the Islamic world. That kind of battle
requires more of a reliance on diplomacy and other nonmilitary tools.

If the respondents to this survey are correct, the U.S. needs to be moving
in an entirely different direction. The war against terror cannot be won by
bombing the enemy into submission. The bull in the china shop may be
frightening at first, but after a while it's just enraging. We need a
better, smarter way.

***

http://www.commondreams.org/views06/0626-20.htm

Sewing Seeds For Salvation
by James Carroll
The Boston Globe: June 26, 2006

Leaders of Scandinavia laid the cornerstone of a
worried act of hope last week. In the far northern
archipelago of Norway only 600 miles from the North
Pole, construction began on the Svalbard Global Seed
Vault. Protected by bunkers, guards, a ferocious
climate, and the region's hostile animals, the vault
will be a radically secure storage facility for up to 3
million of the crop seeds on which life depends.
Refrigeration, and, if that fails, the permafrost will
keep the seeds frozen indefinitely. In Svalbard, steps
are being taken to anticipate a disaster of epic
proportions, whether nuclear war, climate trauma, or
some other wasting of Earth. The vault will provide the
seeds with which humans might begin to recover.

The AP news report from Svalbard compared the vault to
``a Noah's Ark for seeds in case of a global
catastrophe." That reference to Genesis put me in mind
of the book's earlier chapters, the story of Adam and
Eve in Paradise. For the first time it occurred to me
that the poignant tale of the beginning of the human
race, centered on a tragic loss, might be describing
something not of the past, but of the future. What if
the Fall is before us? The prospect of a globe so
devastated that plant life itself would have to be
rekindled requires unprecedented contemplation.

Well, not quite unprecedented. In 1960, General Thomas
Power, head of the Strategic Air Command, rejected a
colleague's qualm about the all-out character of
nuclear war plans by dismissing any restraint: ``The
whole idea is to kill the bastards . . . At the end of
the war, if there are two Americans and one Russian, we
win." To which his colleague replied, ``Well, you'd
better make sure that they're a man and a woman."
(You'll find this in Fred Kaplan's ``Wizards of
Armageddon.")

Once, catastrophes of the kind that would deprive the
world of its vegetation were unimaginable. In the far
mists of time before history, there were ice ages, vast
glacier melts, and meteor strikes that, as the human
mind measures events, traumatized the planet.
Geologists and astronomers report that such things can
happen again, but the scale of time within which they
occur, or of space when considering cosmic happenings,
removes them from the perceived realm of possibility.
All life is contingent, of course, with being itself
held in existence at every instant, when it might
equally turn to nothingness. Who knows when the sun
will be snuffed out? But planners in Norway are
thinking of something far less arcane. Something
initiated more by the likes of General Power than by an
eccentric return, say, of Halley's Comet. Indeed, the
inconvenient truth, in Al Gore's phrase, is that quite
perceptible climate change has already been initiated
by humans, with New Orleans-like devastations a bare
hint of what may be coming.

To cast the imagination forward to a nightmare world in
which seeds might be more precious than diamonds -- or
to a planet whose soil might have been so radiated as
to make seeds worthless -- is truly to know the present
Earth as Eden. ``Earth in the balance" is another
phrase of Gore's, and that balance has never seemed
more delicately maintained. Seeds and crops, water and
soil, air and wind, the gentle evening breeze, the
sight of children entirely at home in their perfect
little bodies, the brilliance of adjustments made by
people whose bodies are far from perfect, even Norway's
generous will to anticipate dangers of the future --
all of this defines a beatific garden compared with
what might come.

What suddenly seems striking about the Adam and Eve
story is how it turns on a forbidden fruit that is
defined as ``knowledge of good and evil." Whatever that
image might have meant to persons in the past, it must
mean something different now that crucial thresholds of
knowledge, whether of the atom's ambiguities or of the
atmosphere's fragility, have been crossed. Science, and
the moral reasoning it requires, have made humans
responsible for the future in ways we have never been
before. Adam and Eve committed a sin that had
catastrophic consequences for the rest of time. Until
now, such a choice could be regarded as the stuff of
myth. But no more. Those are precisely the stakes of
the choices we are making every day. Will we not
recognize our Paradise until it is lost?

James Carroll's column appears regularly in the Globe.

(c) 2006 Globe Newspaper Company

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