I very much agree with the analysis and politics in this essay, but differ in that the one figure socialist revolution isn't determined by history, and merits lots of discussion. If that occurs in Venezuela and doesn't result in a U.S. sponsored fascism, it should open the subject here and elsewhere. A painful lesson, either way. Ed
Commentaries are sent to Sustainer Donors of Z/ZNet To learn more, consult ZNet at http://www.zmag.org Today's commentary: http://www.zmag.org/sustainers/content/2007-12/04podur.cfm ================================== ZNet Commentary Venezuela's Constitutional Reform Fails (For Now) December 04, 2007 By Justin Podur The Constitutional Reform referendum in Venezuela has failed, and Chavez, unlike the Venezuelan opposition, gracefully accepted the defeat. The best outcome would have been a slim victory for the "Si" side, and the loss will have negative regional and global consequences. Colombia's President Uribe, backed by the US, had days before destroyed a humanitarian accord that Chavez had been trying to broker between Colombia's government and the FARC guerrillas. The US is in the process of negotiating a free trade deal with Peru. Canada, serving US foreign policy as it often does, is trying to get the US a free trade deal with Colombia through the back door, by negotiating one for itself. In all this, progressive forces and politicians in place in countries like Ecuador, Bolivia, and Brazil, have looked to Venezuela for political direction and support. The referendum outcome will help the US to isolate these forces. But, as Chavez himself said, the battle is not over and there are some good things that can come out of this. The referendum results: "No" got 50.7% (4 504 351), "Yes" got 49.2% (4 159 392) votes. Abstention was very high, at 44.11%. These are from El Tiempo, the Colombian newspaper, and they come from when there were 97% of the votes counted. Note how very close things were. The normal split in previous years, including the 2004 referendum, has been about 5 million voting with Chavez and about 3.5 million voting against. In this referendum, about 500 000 voters switched and voted against Chavez. Last year's presidential election, which Chavez won with 63% of voters, had only 30% abstention. Many who had voted with Chavez voted abstained, and some voted against. The usual fear tactics and dirty tactics were used by the opposition and the Americans. The spread of disinformation, from the notion that Chavez was going to ban miniskirts to Chavez was going to take your firstborn, was pervasive. There were small-scale capital strikes, threats of a new coup, and other abuses. But the Bolivarians had defeated those tactics in the past and many of them had already been exposed by a much stronger Bolivarian media strategy than ever before. What good can come of it? One of the best things that could happen in Venezuela, as unlikely as it is, is that it could make socialism, popular participation, and democracy seem like normal things, normal options for a society to choose - if not for elites or for the US, for Venezuelan and Latin American peoples. Instead, every time there is an electoral process, there is polarization, a sense that the whole revolutionary project is in the balance, the whole future is in the balance and imperialist violence is hanging overhead, and that voting against Chavez is to side with these reactionary imperialist forces. If, instead, this vote could be seen the way Chavez is presenting it, as a defeat of a specific proposal "for now" (one of his famous phrases), in the context of an ongoing process, that would be a very good thing. There are two related weaknesses in Venezuela's revolution. The first is the absence of highly visible leaders with a national television profile and ideas of their own, that are in Chavez's league, that are a part of the revolutionary process, but that might have slightly different proposals or strategic ideas. This is something that revolutions have always had a hard time producing - it always seems to focus on a single person. The second problem is the difficulty, again largely created by the US and imperialism, in having a space for dissent within the revolutionary process. Oh, it is true that the Bolivarians are incredibly tolerant of the opposition, allowing speech and acts against the government that would not be tolerated in the US or Canada. Much harder though, and unclear how to accomplish, is for there to be debate within the movement about specific proposals without one side or the other having to go over to the opposition. In a context where the opposition has some 3.5 million voters, plus tremendous media power, foreign financing, and ultimately military backing, that is very hard to do. But this referendum outcome could help. It could actually split the opposition voters, by showing that Chavez isn't a dictator and is willing to accept a democratic result, something the opposition has been unwilling to do. The other reason not to despair over this defeat is because of the weaknesses of the referendum itself. The most important flaw was that it was an "omnibus" referendum, in which voters had to accept or reject the whole package. Some parts of this package were exciting - other parts were less so. There were three issues in the referendum that concerned me, and if they had been presented by themselves I would have voted against them. These were the removal of term limits, (which are a relatively minor issue, given the many jurisdictions in the world that don't have them), the increased presidential powers to appoint and remove officials, and the 7-year terms (both which I would vote against as much because they could be used against the Bolivarians in future - who wants to be stuck with an empowered reactionary regime for 7 years?). From increased social welfare to the creation of popular power, there was much that was very good and exciting in the constitutional reforms, but how can we know that the 500,000 or so that switched didn't switch on these three issues? Support for the Bolivarian process could well be deeper than support for this referendum, and potential support for it is even greater (given the high abstention rates and the outcome of the last presidential election). We've always known that the Bolivarians were the more democratic of Venezuela's two sides. Accepting this defeat and carrying on with the process is bound to demonstrate this to many. Justin Podur covered the 2004 recall referendum for ZNet from Venezuela and writes on Colombia-Venezuela issues. He is based in Toronto and can be reached at [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** ----- Original Message ----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, December 04, 2007 10:00 PM Subject: [PDLA] Senate Passes Peru FTA - Boxer Votes NO, Feinstein YES,Clinton YES, Obama YES Peru FTA Passes in Senate December 4, 2007 In response to the Senate passing the Peru Free Trade Act (FTA) today, Lori M. Wallach, Director of Public Citizen's Global Trade Watch Division released the following statement today: In Peru Trade Vote, Senate Democrats Break With Base, Dismiss Widespread Public Opposition to More-of-the-Same Trade Policy and Join GOP to Vote for Another Bush NAFTA Expansion Pushed by Corporations Seven of Nine Senate Freshmen Democrats Oppose Expanding NAFTA to Peru Although not one U.S. labor, environmental, Latino, consumer, faith or family farm group supported the Peru free trade agreement (FTA), a majority of Senate Democrats today broke with their base, dismissed widespread public opposition to more-of-the-same trade policy and joined Republicans to deliver another Bush NAFTA expansion to the large corporations pushing this deal. The debate in the Senate contrasts with that in the House of Representatives last month. There was little focus on the Peru NAFTA expansion deal in the Senate, but in the House an intense, multi-month debate resulted in a majority of House Democrats, including 12 of 18 House committee chairs, voting against the Peru pact and signaling that it is not an acceptable model for future trade agreements. The breakdown of this vote vividly demonstrates two phenomena: the distance between most senators and the American public on trade issues, and the depth of the American public's negative opinion about NAFTA-style trade deals. All but two of nine Democratic freshmen senators who recently campaigned extensively in their states opposed the Peru NAFTA expansion today. Most of the Democratic presidential candidates oppose it, including Sens. Joseph Biden of Delaware and Chris Dodd of Connecticut. In contrast to most of the Democratic presidential candidates who oppose the Peru NAFTA expansion, Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois support it. Clinton and Obama's support for the Peru FTA - after both opposed the 2005 Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), which contained identical provisions and now campaign against NAFTA in Iowa, should make voters wonder just what sort of trade policy Clinton and Obama really support. None of the senators running for president voted today, although all four have issued public statements taking positions on the Peru pact. Clinton's support for the Peru FTA suggests that her recent call for “a time-out” on trade agreements apparently begins only after she votes for one more NAFTA-style agreement. The fact that Obama was the first Democratic presidential candidate to announce his support for the Peru NAFTA expansion two months ago makes his recent attacks on Clinton regarding NAFTA bizarre. Neither Clinton nor Obama has made clear which of the objectionable NAFTA foreign investor privileges--imported food safety limits, service sector privatization and deregulation, “Buy America” bans and other provisions--would be eliminated in potential Clinton or Obama-negotiated agreements. Voters across the country who have suffered the real-life damage from NAFTA deserve to know how all this anti-NAFTA talk from Clinton and Obama would translate if either were elected president. In key early primary states, Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) and both Iowa freshmen Democratic House members opposed the Peru NAFTA expansion, as did both New Hampshire Democratic House members. That the Senate passed a NAFTA-style trade agreement by a wide margin is not unexpected, as even the highly controversial NAFTA had 61 in favor, including 27 Democrats, in 1994. The Morocco and Bahrain FTAs were passed by voice vote in 2004; 80 senators voted for the Australia FTA also in 2004; 83 voted for China permanent normal trade relations in 2000; the Singapore FTA in 2000 obtained 66 votes; and the Chile FTA got 65. In 2005, CAFTA, which obtained no votes from numerous prospective Democratic presidential candidates who had never before opposed a pact, was the closest Senate trade vote ever at 54-45. The passage of the Peru FTA, which was overwhelmingly opposed in the United States and Peru, is bad foreign policy, bad domestic policy and egregiously bad politics. Both of Peru's labor federations, its major indigenous people's organization and its archbishop called on the U.S. Congress to oppose the deal based on the damage it is projected to cause Peru's small farmers and environment. The Peru NAFTA expansion replicates many of the CAFTA provisions that led most Democratic senators to oppose that pact. This includes: foreign investor privileges that create incentives for U.S. firms to move offshore and expose basic environmental, health, zoning and other laws to attack in foreign tribunals; bans on “Buy America” and anti-offshoring policies; limits on food import safety standards and inspection rates; and NAFTA-style agriculture rules that are projected to displace tens of thousands of Peru's Andean farmers and thus increase coca production and immigration. The pact also contains terms that could subject Peru to compensation claims for reversing its unpopular Social Security privatization, the same system Democrats fought against at home. Repeated polling shows that the American public, both Democrats and Republicans, have negative feelings about current U.S. trade policies and the effects on their lives. Democrats in 2006 gained a majority in Congress with scores of candidates winning in campaigns focused on changing the NAFTA trade model. The message of the midterm elections was loud and clear: Voters want a new direction on trade. Congress' public approval rating will not be helped by ignoring this call and passing another Bush NAFTA expansion. See the roll call vote results at http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=1&vote=00413 _______________________________________________ PDLA mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://mailman.svpal.org/mailman/listinfo/pdla --------------------------------------------------------------------------- LAAMN: Los Angeles Alternative Media Network --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe: <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subscribe: <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Digest: <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Help: <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Post: <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Archive1: <http://www.egroups.com/messages/laamn> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Archive2: <http://www.mail-archive.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yahoo! 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