Jadaliyya Launches Syria Page<http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/4392/jadaliyya-launches-syria-page> 0<http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/4392/jadaliyya-launches-syria-page#comments> Feb 16 2012 by Syria Page Editors <http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/contributors/50903> [image: Listen to this page using ReadSpeaker]<http://app.readspeaker.com/cgi-bin/rsent?customerid=5919&lang=en_us&readid=rscontent&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.jadaliyya.com%2Fpages%2Findex%2F4392%2Fjadaliyya-launches-syria-page> [image: [Map of Syria.]] [Map of Syria.]
*Jadaliyya *annouces the soft launch of its new *Syria Page*. You can access the page here<http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/4392/syria.jadaliyya.com/>. Similarly structured to our Egypt Page <http://egypt.jadaliyya.com/>, the Syria Page will feature articles about Syria written by those on the ground in Syria as well as outside observers. If you are interested in contributing to this page, send us your submission to p...@jadaliyya.com. We accept submissions in both Arabic and English. Our first set of articles address a range of topics, inlcuding an assessment of the accomplishments of the urpising, the unraveling of Syria's social contract, the ways in which both the regime and the opposition are deploying cyber attacks one another, and a roundup of major media coverage of Syria. Check them out! *Sowing the Seeds of Dissent: Economic Grievances and the Syrian Social Contracts Unraveling*<http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/4383/sowing-the-seeds-of-dissent_economic-grievances-an> Notes on the Syrian Uprisings (Part 1)<http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/4382/notes-on-the-syrian-uprisings-(part-1)> Syria's Cyber Operations<http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/4384/syrias-cyber-operations-> --------------------------------------------------------- Thursday, February 16, 2012 Wallterstein on Syria<http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2012/02/wallterstein-on-syria.html> "Israel: Yes, the Israelis continue to obsess about Iran. And yes, Baathist Syria continues to be an Iran-friendly power. But when all is said and done, Syria has been a relatively quiet Arab neighbor, an island of stability for the Israelis. Yes, the Syrians aid Hezbollah, but Hezbollah too has been relatively quiet. Why would the Israelis really want to take the risk of a turbulent post-Baathist Syria? Who would then wield power, and might they not have to improve their credentials by expanding jihad against Israel? And wouldnt the fall of Assad lead to upsetting the relative quiet and stability that Lebanon now seems to enjoy, and might this not end up with the further strengthening and renewed radicalism of Hezbollah? *Israel has a lot to lose, and not too much to gain, if Assad ** falls* <http://www.iwallerstein.com/syrian-impasse/>*."* (thanks Junaid) Posted by As'ad AbuKhalil *The United States: The U.S. government talks a good line. But have you noticed how wary it is in practice? The Washington Post headlined an article on Feb. 11, As carnage builds, U.S. sees `no good options on Syria. The story points out that the U.S. government has no appetite for a military intervention. No appetite, despite the pressure of neocon intellectuals like Charles Krauthammer who is honest enough to admit its not just about freedom. Its really, he says, about undoing the regime in Iran.* article below: The Syrian Impasse Commentary No. 323, Feb. 15, 2012 Bachar al-Assad has risen to the heights of being one of the least popular men in the world. He is denounced as a tyrant, indeed a very bloody tyrant, by almost everyone. Even those governments that refuse to denounce him seem to be counseling him to curb his repressive ways and to make some sort of political concessions to his internal opponents. So, how is it that he ignores all this advice and proceeds to continue to use maximum force to continue political control of Syria? Why is there no outside intervention to force his removal from office? To answer these questions, let us start with assessing his strengths. To start with, he has a reasonably strong army, and up to now, with a few exceptions, the army and other structures of force in the country have stayed loyal to the regime. Secondly, he still seems to command the support of at least half of the population in what is increasingly being described as a civil war. The key government posts and the officer corps are in the hands of the Alawi, a branch of Shia Islam. The Alawi are a minority of the population and certainly fear what would happen to them if the opposition forces, largely Sunni, were to come to power. In addition, the other significant minority forces the Christians, the Druze, and the Kurds seem to be equally wary of a Sunni government. Finally, the large merchant bourgeoisie have yet to turn against Assad and the Baath regime. But is this really enough? If this were all, I doubt that Assad could really hold out much longer. The regime is being squeezed economically. The opposition Free Syrian Army is being fed arms by Iraqi Sunnis and probably Qatar. And the chorus of denunciations in the world press and by politicians of all stripes grows louder by the day Yet, I dont think that, a year or two from now, we will find that Assad is gone or the regime basically changed. The reason is that those who are denouncing him the loudest do not really want him to go. Let us take them one by one. Saudi Arabia: The Foreign Minister told the New York Times that violence had to be stopped and the Syrian government not given any more chances. This sounds really strong until you notice that he added that international intervention had to be ruled out. The fact is that Saudi Arabia wants the credit of opposing Assad but is very afraid of a successor government. It knows that in a post-Assad (probably fairly anarchic) Syria, al-Qaeda would find a base. And the Saudis know that al-Qaedas number one objective is to overthrow the Saudi regime. Ergo, no international intervention. Israel: Yes, the Israelis continue to obsess about Iran. And yes, Baathist Syria continues to be an Iran-friendly power. But when all is said and done, Syria has been a relatively quiet Arab neighbor, an island of stability for the Israelis. Yes, the Syrians aid Hezbollah, but Hezbollah too has been relatively quiet. Why would the Israelis really want to take the risk of a turbulent post-Baathist Syria? Who would then wield power, and might they not have to improve their credentials by expanding jihad against Israel? And wouldnt the fall of Assad lead to upsetting the relative quiet and stability that Lebanon now seems to enjoy, and might this not end up with the further strengthening and renewed radicalism of Hezbollah? Israel has a lot to lose, and not too much to gain, if Assad falls. *The United States: The U.S. government talks a good line. But have you noticed how wary it is in practice? The Washington Post headlined an article on Feb. 11, As carnage builds, U.S. sees `no good options on Syria. The story points out that the U.S. government has no appetite for a military intervention. No appetite, despite the pressure of neocon intellectuals like Charles Krauthammer who is honest enough to admit its not just about freedom. Its really, he says, about undoing the regime in Iran.* But isnt that exactly why Obama and his advisors see no good options? They were pressured into the Libyan operation. The U.S. didnt lose many lives, but did they really gain geopolitical advantage as a result? Is the new Libyan regime, if one can say there is a new Libyan regime, something better? Or is this the beginning of a long internal instability, as Iraq has turned out to be? So, when Russia vetoed the U.N. resolution on Syria, I can imagine a sigh of relief in Washington. The pressure to up the ante and begin a Libyan-style intervention was lifted. Obama was protected against Republican harassment on Syria by the Russian veto. And Susan Rice, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, could shift all blame to the Russians. They were disgusting, she said, oh so diplomatically. France: Always nostalgic for their once-dominant role in Syria, Foreign Minister Alain Juppé shouts and denounces. But troops? Youve got to be kidding. Theres an election coming up, and sending troops would not be at all popular, especially since this would be no piece of cake, as was Libya. Turkey: Turkey has improved its relations with the Arab world incredibly in the last decade. Its definitely unhappy about the civil war on its borders. It would love to see some kind of political compromise. But Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is quoted as guaranteeing that Turkey is not providing arms or support to army defectors. Turkey wants essentially to be friends to all sides. And besides, Turkey has its own Kurdish question, and Syria might offer active support, which hitherto it has refrained from doing. *So, who wants to intervene in Syria? Perhaps Qatar. But Qatar, however wealthy it is, is scarcely a major military power. The bottom line is that, however loud the rhetoric and however ugly the civil war, no one really, really wants Assad to go. So, in all probability, he will stay.* *-----------------* Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: "Dialogue Sought"? Thursday, February 16, 2012 at 9:38 Scott Lucas in Africa, Bahrain, EA Global, EA Middle East and Turkey, Egypt, General Federation of Bahrain Trade Unions, Hosni Mubarak, Hussam Izzedine, Jameel Humaidan, Libya, Middle East and Iran, Shaikh Khalifa Bin Ahmad Al Khalifa, Syria *Regime troops and a tank on patrol in Inshaat in Homs Province in Syria* http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSH7vjfSDj0&feature=player_embedded *See also Syria Analysis: The Changing Face of a Guerrillla War<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/2/16/syria-analysis-the-changing-face-of-a-guerrillla-war.html> Wednesday's Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Momentum of Protest, Part 1<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/2/15/bahrain-syria-and-beyond-live-coverage-the-momentum-of-prote.html> Bahrain Video Feature: Re-Visiting the Protesters, A Year Later (Al Jazeera English)<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/2/16/bahrain-video-feature-re-visiting-the-protesters-a-year-late.html> * ------------------------------ 2156 GMT: The UN General Assembly has passed a resolution on Syria<http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0216/breaking29.html>, pledging support for the Arab League's transition plan: The initial count showed that the resolution, which is similar to one Russia and China vetoed in the Security Council on February 4th, received 137 votes in favour, 12 against and 17 abstentions, although three delegations said their votes failed to register on the electronic board. Russia and China were among those that voted against the resolution. 2105 GMT: The Syrian activists are noting that while the UN debates Syria (see the live stream here <http://www.unmultimedia.org/tv/webcast/>) there are now reliable reports that Al Atareb, in the Aleppo governorate near Idlib, and Al Bokumal, near Deir Ez Zor and the border with Iraq, are both under heavy bombardment as we speak. 2048 GMT: The UN General Assembly is voting on a resolution on Syria that has been co-sponsored by 70 countries<http://twitter.com/USUN/statuses/170246792150138881>. Unlike security council agreements, a simple majority is necessary for the resolution to pass, and most expect that it will pass easily. So far, the UN appears to be readying to grant over $900,000 to fund a special envoy on the Syrian crisis who will cooperate with the Arab League. Russia, Algeria, Lebanon, Sudan, Iraq and Yemen are expected to vote against the resolution<https://twitter.com/#!/Shadaomar/statuses/170244730075086848>. While the vote in non-binding<http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russia-opposes-general-assembly-move-syria-15691207#.Tz1ryFz2auo>, it could help lend legitimacy to further international efforts to end the crisis. General Assembly resolutions can't be vetoed and are nonbinding, but they reflect world opinion on major issues. Supporters of the Arab-sponsored resolution hope for a high "yes" vote to deliver a strong message to Assad's regime. Arab countries have rejected amendments to the resolution proposed by Russia. 2035 GMT: Earlier we noted the extremely large protest in the Mezzeh district of Damascus, but tonight's protest<http://www.facebook.com/LCCSy/posts/239867836099722>near a mosque in the Kefer Souseh district<http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=215253448853172848529.0004b915230f6faf2face&msa=0&ll=33.486292,36.249905&spn=0.094921,0.181789&iwloc=0004b91abd7c557e9e1cc>is also large, defiant, and impressive, another must-watch video. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxLocSq2ClE&feature=player_embedded The CFDPC also post this video<http://www.facebook.com/CFDPC/posts/298510703544096>, an impressive protest in Douma<http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=215253448853172848529.0004b915230f6faf2face&msa=0&ll=33.550551,36.364403&spn=0.1897,0.363579&iwloc=0004b91acb00c63d5eaa8>, Damascus, at a funeral earlier today. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LAYt8tRhjHU&feature=player_embedded The CFDPC have also reported several other protests today across Damascus, including a fairly strong student protest<http://www.facebook.com/CFDPC/posts/130861210370489>in the Hajar al Aswad<http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=215253448853172848529.0004b915230f6faf2face&msa=0&ll=33.442615,36.277199&spn=0.189937,0.363579&iwloc=0004b91ad0b824b933ee1>district of Damascus. 2027 GMT: A Canadian activist, Naser Al Raas, who was imprisoned in Bahrain has been released and all charges have been dropped<http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/02/16/canadian-naser-al-raas-to-learn-whether-he-is-headed-back-to-prison-in-bahrain/> : The Kuwait-born Canadian citizen had previously been convicted of breaking Bahrains illegal-assembly laws after taking part in pro-democracy protests, and he was facing a five-year prison sentence. Raas claims that he was tortured while in Bahraini custody. 2022 GMT: A prominent Syrian activist<https://twitter.com/#!/SeekerSK/status/170240549297721344>notes, "Zabadany: This is the 20th day the city has gone without electricity, water, or access to medicine." 2013 GMT: Al Jazeera Arabic has broadcast this message<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThjtFhUMgII>from a man who claims he is Brigadier General Fayez Amru in the air force and is defecting from the regime and joining the uprising. The General was working in the Aleppo governorate, we believe. 1926 GMT: The Syrian Uprising Information Centre has posted videos of today's large protest<http://www.facebook.com/syrianuprising/posts/143319859121436>in Mezzeh<http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=215253448853172848529.0004b915230f6faf2face&msa=0&ll=33.516209,36.274452&spn=0.10004,0.181789&iwloc=0004b91668bcd59908653>, Damascus, but they have also posted a video which appears to show security forces making many arrests at the conclusion of the protest (see update at 1531 GMT<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/2/16/bahrain-syria-and-beyond-live-coverage-dialogue-sought.html#1531> ). The CFDPC also post this video<http://www.facebook.com/CFDPC/posts/219289521500413>, which they say shows the gunfire "in the Mezzeh area of Damascus during the funeral procession; at the end of the video we can clearly see security forces." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZgERHmY8Mc&feature=player_embedded 1954 1854GMT: The Local Coordinating Committees are now reporting that 70 have been killed in Syria<http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=387515991275543&set=a.221856221174855.74557.217848338242310&type=1>, "including 36 unidentified bodies, 13 soldiers, 3 woman and 2 pre-term infants. 38 in Idlib, 12 in Hama, 5 in Homs, 6 in Damascus Suburbs "Zabadany,Madaya", 7 in Daraa, and 1 in Deir Ezzor and 1 in Raqqah." 1948 1848 GMT: This video was reportedly taken in Lattakia<http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=215253448853172848529.0004b915230f6faf2face&msa=0&ll=35.200745,36.425171&spn=2.944405,5.817261&iwloc=0004b9194d3e09a53c49c>(no date attached to the video). According to FNNSyria, the video was leaked from Assad soldiers to the opposition. The men in the video appear to be soldiers, shooting randomly down the streets, apparently at homes. >From the behavior of the soldiers, it does not appear that they are taking any incoming fire. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_emr3aggKzg&feature=player_embedded 1939 1839 GMT: There are many reports that security forces have raided Zabadani and Madaya<http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=215253448853172848529.0004b915230f6faf2face&msa=0&ll=33.704349,36.137466&spn=0.187363,0.363579&iwloc=0004b915c8c9d6e4dbb0f>, 20 miles northwest of Damascus. Casualties and arrests are reported. A prominent activist sent this Tweet<https://twitter.com/#!/ArabSpringFF/statuses/170197073872945152>approximately an hour ago: Sec forces raid homes arrest over 250. More than 10 houses were burnt. Looting and people are being threatened to be executed. The LCCS is also reporting that fire erupted "at all checkpoints" around the two cities, and there are reports that three people have been killed<http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=387499484610527&set=a.221856221174855.74557.217848338242310&type=1> . We aren't sure what was the antecedent for the renewed violence, but will continue to follow developments as they unfold. 1739 GMT: Earlier we reported that many detainees have reportedly been killed by Assad-loyal forces in Idlib province. This graphic video<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBAmLDPNSng>reportedly shows some of those bodies. The bodies shown in the video appear to show considerable blood loss. Of course, we cannot verify when the video was taken or how these men died, but it does match the reports from the LCCS and activists in Syria. 1705 GMT: An activist shares this video,<http://twitter.com/DSyrer/statuses/170191523080716288>taken from Al Jazeera's Arabic broadcast, which appears to show soldiers defecting and joining the Free Syrian Army in Idlib province: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hg3QnLRq9mY&feature=player_embedded 1659 GMT: Based on our last report, it's probably not a surprise that the LCCS has revised its death toll upwards. According to the latest report, 63 people have been killed by security forces today<http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=387401787953630&set=a.221856221174855.74557.217848338242310&type=1>, "including 36 unidentified bodies, 10 soldiers, 3 woman and 2 pre-term infants. 38 in Idlib, 12 in Hama, 4 in Homs, 4 in Damascus Suburbs, 4 in Daraa, and 1 in Deir Ezzor." 1626 GMT: Earlier, we carried a report that 19 bodies had been found in Idlib<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/2/16/bahrain-syria-and-beyond-live-coverage-dialogue-sought.html#1516>after they were executed by Assad loyalists. The LCCS has yet another report of a mass killing in Idlib province<http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=387380641289078&set=a.221856221174855.74557.217848338242310&type=1> : Idlib: Rouj Plains: The regimes forces committed a massacre against 15 detainees who were executed near a bridge on the Ariha highway-Jisr Shougour. They were captured during a raid on Hayla and Senkerh villages and Rouj Plains. The regimes forces also murdered 5 relatives of those detainees who tired to recover the corpses of their loved ones thinking that the regime had withdrawn. 1614 GMT: *The Guardian* has posted video of an interview with journalist Robert Fisk<http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2012/feb/16/syria-libya-deraa-live#block-19>, where he makes this assessment: In order not to persuade more soldiers to defect, the Syrian army is not using its full fire power. It doesn't feel like that in Homs probably, but it is not using its full fire power in the way it did in Hama in 1982, for example, when more than 10,000 people were killed, because of the fear that such enormous violence against Syrian people, whether they be armed or not, would simply alienate whole units of the Syrian army itself. So on the one hand the Free Syrian Army is an "army" in quotation marks but the actual army has limitations which it didn't have in the past limitations not of weaponry (plenty of that from Russia) but of the ability to use it without turning more soldiers against the government. We completely agree with Fisk. Several weeks ago, when the FSA gained control of Zabadani, several towns in Idlib, Rankous and the eastern suburbs of Damascus, the army retreated, even signing cease-fire agreements with the rebels in Zabadani and Kafar Takharim (in Idlib). One of the problems the army was facing was that as it got closer to the cities it began to take casualties, the FSA was even knocking out some of their armor, and defections spiked considerably. It was after this that the army began to rely more heavily on shelling cities from a distance, as a warning to the citizens of the town, and as a warning to their own soldiers, that defectors will pay a steep price. 1548 GMT: Bahrain - This video was reportedly taken yesterday, and was posted with this description: "Almusalah village :: security forces are attacking the passing civilians who are in their cars." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izFCm8izO14&feature=player_embedded An EA correspondent says that news like this out of Almusalah village has been common for two days. He also shares this video and this picture<https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/424295_246701798744841_105826852832337_554226_1184254943_n.jpg>, reportedly taken in Almusalah yesterday: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MF2O0GpMTQ0&feature=player_embedded <javascript:showFullImage('/display/ShowImage?imageUrl=%2Fstorage%2Fblog-post-images%2Fbahrain%202012%200215%20almusalaha.jpg%3F__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION%3D1329407454712',339,600);> 1540 GMT: *The Guardian*<http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2012/feb/16/syria-libya-deraa-live>adds details about the raid on the Centre for Media and Freedom of Expression in Damascus: The blogger Razan Ghazzawi is said to be among them. She was also arrested towards the end of last year while travelling to a conference in Jordan and eventually released after a campaign on the internet. Others said to have been arrested in today's raid include Hussein Ghareer, Hani Zeitani and Sana Zeitani. Syrian security forces broke into the office of a prominent human rights activist in Damascus earlier today, arresting him along with several others, opposition figure Louay Hussein has told Reuters. The activist, Mazen Darwich, is head of the Syrian Centre for Media and Freedom of Expression which has been documenting human rights violations. He has also spoken recently about the situation to international media. Darwich was previously arrested last year while acting as an observer at a sit-in outside the Syrian interior ministry in Damascus. One of the other activists arrested with Darwich today has been named as Yara Badr. 1531 GMT: The Coalition of Free Damascenes For Peaceful Change has also posted several videos and reports from the protest in Mezzeh. Since March, the standard logic that experts have applied to this crisis is that when there were large protests in the heart of Damascus then the Assad regime would fall. Well, this isn't the heart of Damascus, but it's definitely an extremely large protest in the left lung. The CFDPC reports <http://www.facebook.com/CFDPC/posts/330771213632437>: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aU_JsUPIAZw&feature=player_embedded http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwU5fIjgC-w&feature=player_embedded another video of the funeral procession for Osama Ahmad Shaaban, who died yesterday due to the injuries from gunfire of security forces on friday 10th feb 2012. Security forces opened fire on mourners and used tear gas and sound bombs when mourners arrived behind the Iranian Emabassy. 1524 GMT: This video was reportedly taken in the Mezzeh district<http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=215253448853172848529.0004b915230f6faf2face&msa=0&ll=33.476127,36.238747&spn=0.200173,0.363579&iwloc=0004b91668bcd59908653>, west of the center of power in Damascus. This is a truly massive protest, when the location, and its close proximity to the heart of the Assad government, is taken into consideration: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkJ0YwFO7X8&feature=player_embedded 1516 GMT: It's been a bloody day in Syria, and the death toll appears to be rising rapidly. The LCCS reports that 40 have been killed today by security forces<http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=387336984626777&set=a.221856221174855.74557.217848338242310&type=1>, "including 19 unidentified bodies, 10 soldiers, one woman and one child. 21 of those are in Idlib, 13 in Hama, 2 in Damascus Suburbs, one in Deir Ezzor, 2 in Daraa, and one in Homs." According the the Local Coordinating Committees, the "19 unidentified" bodies were all found in Idlib<http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=387334234627052&set=a.221856221174855.74557.217848338242310&type=1> : 19 bodies were found on the train rails near Mahameel belonging to people who tried to fled to Turkey but were arrested and executed by security forces. The people couldn't retrieve all the bodies because of the heavy shooting from tanks. This is just the latest sign that the Assad regime is struggling to maintain control of Idlib, but it is also a sign that the pro-Assad forces are willing to resort to this kind of tactic in order to try to scare the populous into submission. 1504 GMT: According to Syrian activist Shakeeb Al-Jabri<https://twitter.com/#!/LeShaque/status/170147016813461504>, the Syrian Center for Media and Freedom of Expression in Damascus has been raided, and between 12 and 14 people have been arrested: Sources also confirm that SCM director Mazen Darwiche and his wife have been detained. We're told that a total of 14 people with ties to SCM have been arrested but we don't have confirmation yet. Confirmation that Razan Ghazzawi @RedRazan and Hussein Ghrer, who have been arrested before, are among the SMC detainees. Sources have told Al Jazeera<http://blogs.aljazeera.net/liveblog/syria-feb-16-2012-1700>that "Syrian rights activist and opposition figure Mazen Darwish has been arrested in the capital Damascus, along with his wife and an employee, opposition figure Louai." Many activists are already pointing out the irony that the day after President Assad has said he'll work toward ending single-party rule with new Constitutional reforms, he's already arresting his rivals. 1447 GMT: EA correspondent John Horne's contacts in Bahrain report that there are police checkpoints in Sanabis, and that the streets have had a regular police presence since Tuesday. Now, another EA correspondent, in Bahrain, reports in: Sitra was raided badly yesterday, about 20 youth been arrested... And now news of more clashes, specially in Muhaza. This picture<https://m.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=931938&l=4faf1c2045&id=216302605074550&refsrc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fphoto.php&_rdr>was reportedly taken in Muhaza only one hour ago. <javascript:showFullImage('/display/ShowImage?imageUrl=%2Fstorage%2Fblog-post-images%2Fbahrain%202012%200216%20Muhaza%20teargas.jpg%3F__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION%3D1329404140030',540,720);> 1438 GMT: Reuters provides this stunning footage<http://www.reuters.com/video/2012/02/16/amateur-video-of-explosions-gunfire-in-s?videoId=230266787&feedType=VideoRSS&feedName=TopNews&videoChannel=1&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FUSVideoTopNews+%28Video+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29>from Zabadani<http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=215253448853172848529.0004b915230f6faf2face&msa=0&ll=33.509339,36.101074&spn=1.600722,2.90863&iwloc=0004b915c8c9d6e4dbb0f>, which they say shows a counterattack against Assad forces, launched by the Free Syrian Army: 1431 GMT: CNN's Ivan Watson <https://twitter.com/#!/IvanCNN> is in northern Syria right now, and has sent these Tweets this morning: Countryside in northern #Syria in open revolt. Not armed terrorists, but farmers, carpenters, teachers, village elders. Opposition says regime abdicated control of many villages & towns months ago. Communities enjoying 'self-rule' in 'liberated Government flag flying in center of #Idlib. Less than km away, also in #Idlib, huge opposition flag flying. city divided between rebels/govt opposition lightly-armed, with Kalashnikov rifles. rebels say they are protecting villages from threat of tank assaults w/land mines 1415 GMT: James Miller takes over today's live coverage from Scott Lucas. Let's start with Bahrain. This video, sent to us by a contact in Bahrain, was reportedly taken yesterday in Amusala village. A riot vehicle can be seen with a flat tire, and something is burning (probably trash or tires) in the background. It appears that the youth were trying to put sharp objects on the ground in order to pop the tires of these dreaded police vehicles: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mvHXkOk1yA&feature=player_embedded Elsewhere, these clashes reportedly happened last night in Shahrakan village. Teargas and molotovs appear to have been traded, and the youths erected burning-tire roadblocks to halt any advance by police vehicles: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=pQCnE7CMwds This video was reportedly taken today, showing police erecting walls of piled sand around Martyr Square (formerly the Pearl Roundabout Square, which is being rebranded by the regime as the "Gulf Cooperation Council Square") http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=8C46IAeSvEQ 1205 GMT: Al Jazeera English's Adam Makary<http://www.twitter.com/adamakary>reported from Cairo this morning that the trial of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has been adjourned to next Monday for arguments by the prosecution and next Wednesday for the defence. Al Jazeera English's Nadia Abou el-Magd <http://www.twitter.com/NadiaGlory>adds that the verdict is expected next Wednesday. 1040 GMT: America's ABC News reports that a hearing in Benghazi in Libya against 50 people accused of "treason against the revolution" has been postponed<http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/libyan-trial-shows-judicial-chaos-15642903#.TzzSn8XKCra>because the militia holding the defendants refused to bring them to court. 0950 GMT: In Bahrain, regime officials have threatened to close<http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/NewsDetails.aspx?storyid=323825>dozens of clinics for "operating illegally" in providing care to protesters. The officials said they had already identified and closed one clinic yesterday and were investigating others. The clinics have offered vital medical care since soon after the beginning of the protests last February. After security forces reportedly seized wounded demonstrators from Salmaniya Medical Centre, and interrogated others in the basement of the facility, many injured people were taken to other facilities. 0937 GMT: More on the Syrian regime's assault on Daraa this morning (see 0700 GMT).... "The army bombardment started around dawn<http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/16/us-syria-deraa-idUSTRE81F0DY20120216>and after that exchanges of fire occurred. We have been hearing of a military build-up around Deraa for two weeks," Hussam Izzedine, a member of the Syrian human rights organization Swasiah, has said. "Deraa has been regaining its role in the uprising. Demonstrations have resumed and the Free Syrian Army has been providing security for protests in some parts of the city." On the diplomatic front, Russia has reportedly asked for a number of changes<http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=365287>to a draft resolution scheduled for a Thursday vote in the United Nations General Assembly. Last week, Russia and China vetoed a similar measure in the UN Security Council. Moscow opposes any outside imposition of the Arab League plan of 27 January, which calls for President Assad to hand over power to his Vice President. Another change would link the return of Syrian troops to their barracks to an "end of attacks by armed groups against state institutions". Russia also wants the opposition "to dissociate themselves from armed groups engaged in acts of violence". 0817 GMT: Bahrain's Minister of Defence Shaikh Khalifa Bin Ahmad Al Khalifa has declared that protests are a coup attempt<http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/bahrain/bahrain-protests-a-coup-plot-defence-chief-says-1.980961>supported by foreign forces, including 22 non-governmental organisations: * Nineteen of them are based in the US and three in a Gulf country. They are all operated, funded and trained by the US and the Gulf country. When we confronted officials from both countries with facts and information that we have gathered lately, they distanced themselves from them, claiming they were civil society organisations.... he savage media assault on Bahrain had been planned for a long time and five countries and three terrorist organisations were involved in this media war against us. In their conspiracy against the regime in Bahrain, they provided large funds and mobilised people from intelligence services, the military, the media, the press, media agencies and satellite channels. They all conspired against Bahrain at a time when we were regretfully unaware of what was happening. We did not expect such a carefully prepared plot to target Bahrain. Thank God, we were able to foil their plot.... It was not easy and we are still recuperating. We need time to acquire more experience before we confront them through the media.* Al Khalifa said the coup efforts had been aided by foreign nations who had halted support to Bahrain's security forces: There are seven countries that have been assuming various roles to put pressure on Bahrain through imposing bans on the sale of security and defence equipment that could be used by the anti-riots police. They are the US, Britain, France, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland and Belgium. The ban is still in place, but it had no effect on Bahrain because we knew how to handle it and we diversified the sources of our equipment. 0810 GMT: Bahrain's trade unions say that workers' dismissals, many for political reasons, have indirectly affected 10,988 people<http://www.dt.bh/newsdetails.php?key=301110213450&newsid=150212190407>in the past year. The General Federation of Bahrain Trade Unions said the figure includes the families of 1,641 employees who are yet to be reinstated in the private sector. The GFBTU said 157 private companies out of the 200 registered with the union have not begin reinstatement, despite royal and ministerial orders. Minister of Labour Jameel Humaidan earlier announced that 1,400 dismissed employees will benefit from the Insurance Against Unemployment scheme. 0700 GMT: Activists say Syrian armoured forces are attacking<http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/syrian-troops-attack-deraa-battle-rebels-residents>the southern city of Daraa on Thursday to crush the Free Syrian Army. Explosions and machine gun fire have been heard throughout the city's al-Balad, al-Mahatta and al-Sad districts. Insurgents fired at army roadblocks and buildings housing security police and militiamen Firing near the mosque in the centre of Daraa<http://maps.google.com/maps?q=%D8%A8%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%B9%D8%A7+%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%84%D8%AF++loc:+Daraa,+Syria&hl=en&ie=UTF8&ll=32.623906,36.103821&spn=0.047422,0.090895&sll=32.660188,36.13266&sspn=0.379218,0.727158&geocode=CWFG5RZWYGazFXTP8QEdBewmAinl1vrj2-0bFTF2BWpNZEx9Yg&gl=us&hq=%D8%A8%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%B9%D8%A7+%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%84%D8%AF&t=h&z=14> : http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=52aNoZy3UoE 0640 GMT: We open this morning with two cases demonstrating the tension between "reform" and realities on the ground. A Reuters summary has the near-surreal headline, "Over 120 Hurt in Bahrain Clashes<http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/2/16/worldupdates/2012-02-15T180743Z_2_TRE81E19E_RTROPTT_0_UK-BAHRAIN-PROTESTS&sec=Worldupdates>, Dialogue Sought". To be fair, Andrew Hammond's article details the injuries --- although he does not explicitly say they are almost all to protesters --- including the wounding of some by birdshot, which regime forces deny using. And his passage on "dialogue" highlights that any discussion took place before the latest round of violence and has not, so far, led to any political advance. That is not only because of queries over the regime's actions, but also because of divisions within the opposition: Abduljalil Khalil, who heads the parliamentary caucus of the Shi'ite Wefaq party, the largest opposition faction, said three senior Wefaq figures met two weeks ago with Royal Court Minister Sheikh Khaled bin Ahmed, a powerful figure in the ruling Al-Khalifa family, at the government's request. Khalil said they presented the key demand of the opposition, outlined in a statement in October known as the Manama Document, for a referendum on moving towards full parliamentary democracy. Such a move to curb the extensive powers of the ruling dynasty would be a first in the Gulf. "He asked if we are ready for dialogue, and we said 'yes', but a serious and constructive one," Khalil said. "We presented our views on how to get out of this mess. He said they'll get back to us ... Now we are at the first anniversary of February 14, and security action has not worked. They realise they need to have a political solution." Asked if the opposition, which includes Shi'ite Islamists as well as Sunni and Shi'ite secularists, would agree to parties close to the government taking part, Khalil said they agreed that the government should hold separate discussions with them. Highlighting opposition divisions, some activists criticised Wefaq for talking to a man they view as the architect of a policy of boosting Sunni population numbers by settling Pakistanis and some Arabs, a charge the government denies. Nabeel Rajab, a rights figure who has led some street protests, called the minister the "engineer of ethnic cleansing." "This destroys any process of dialogue before it starts and shows lack of seriousness." "How can we trust our opposition if they meet with such people? They sit with them while telling us something else," another activist, Sayed, told Reuters. "This is why the February 14 Coalition has become so popular." Meanwhile in Syria, as at least 32 more people were killed yesterday, there was President Assad's promise of Constitutional change. EA's James Miller summarised<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/2/15/bahrain-syria-and-beyond-live-coverage-the-momentum-of-prote.html> : *The proposed charter drops Article 8, which declared the ruling Baath Party as the "leader of the state and society", allowing for a multi-party system, state television said on Wednesday. The president, who must be a Muslim man, can serve a maximum of two seven-year terms, although it is unclear if this would apply to Assad, who is already in his second term. Russia has praised the move, the US called it "laughable," and the posturing continues. For EA, the question of reform can be boiled down into two points: is the regime serious, and does it matter [even if it is]? * The smoke of fires and explosions over Homs in Syria on Wednesday: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=KwZT7wETw60 Article originally appeared on EA WorldView (http://www.enduringamerica.com/). 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