Communists v Socialists The Mélenchon conundrum Apr 10th 2012, 9:22 by S.P. | PARIS
- - THE received wisdom in Paris is that Jean-Luc Mélenchons remarkable campaign is bad news for François Hollande. As Mr Mélenchon has surged ahead in the polls, and into third place in the first round, Mr Hollandes numbers have dropped back. But I wonder if this is right. Could Mr Mélenchons dazzling performance actually be helpful for Mr Hollande? At first glance, this seems absurd. Mr Mélenchons rise in the polls<http://tempsreel.nouvelobs.com/sondage-presidentielle-2012/20120207.OBS0739/infographie-le-comparateur-des-sondages-de-la-presidentielle.html>, which began in mid-February, has almost exactly mirrored Mr Hollandes decline. The Communists candidate has jumped from 9% to 15%, while the Socialists has dropped from 32% to 28%. As a result, Mr Hollande has lost any sense of momentum. With the clenched fists, the sea of red flags at his rallies and the singing of the "Internationale", the fiery Mr Mélenchon has managed to excite crowds, and stir passions and utopian dreams in a way that only underlines Mr Hollandes rather staid approach. Mr Hollande can do hot-blooded on occasion: his rousing speech at Le Bourget, when he declared war on the world of finance, launched him as a plausible presidential candidate. But he is more often perceived as a man of moderation, the normal candidate to contrast with the extravagant Nicolas Sarkozy. And this hardly makes for an inspiring campaign. But could it be that Mr Mélenchon is actually doing the passion job for him? Clémentine Autain, Mr Mélenchons spokeswoman, said on the radio<http://www.bfmtv.com/bourdin-2012-clementine-autain-actu25851.htm>the other day that: We will call for a victory over Sarkozy, and we will vote for the left-wing candidate who is in the lead. His voters are the very ones who might otherwise have abstained at this election. As it is, polling agencies predict<http://www.bva.fr/fr/sondages/cap_sur_2012/abstention_2012_plus_forte_qu_en_2007_moins_forte_qu_en_2002.html>a low turnout compared with 2007. By rallying the disillusioned on the left in the first round, and then calling on them to back Mr Hollande in the second, Mr Mélenchon might actually turn out to be an asset for the Socialist candidate. The real question then becomes this: what price his support? The higher Mr Mélenchons first-round score, the stronger his hand. For now, the Socialists have signed an electoral deal only with the Greens, who under Eva Joly have dropped off the radar screen at the presidential election (latest polls<http://www.ipsos.fr/ipsos-public-affairs/actualites/2012-04-09-nicolas-sarkozy-et-francois-hollande-au-coude-coude-au-1er-tour>give her just 1.5%). Mr Mélenchons Left Front could either demand a legislative deal, ahead of parliamentary elections in June, to ensure that it can form a bloc in the next assembly. Or it might ask for policy concessions, and ministerial jobs. Given that Mr Mélenchons programme contains such measures as an immediate 20% rise in the minimum wage, a 100% tax rate on earnings over 360,000 and a withdrawal of France from NATO, this could lead to some pretty tense negotiations on the evening of April 22nd. [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------------------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- LAAMN: Los Angeles Alternative Media Network --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe: <mailto:[email protected]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subscribe: <mailto:[email protected]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Digest: <mailto:[email protected]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Help: <mailto:[email protected]?subject=laamn> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Post: <mailto:[email protected]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Archive1: <http://www.egroups.com/messages/laamn> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Archive2: <http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/laamn/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/laamn/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: [email protected] [email protected] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [email protected] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
