---------------------------------

 Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Spread of the Conflict
Wednesday, June 6, 2012 at 9:26
James Miller in Adel Safar, Africa, Bahrain, Bashar al-Assad, EA Global, EA
Middle East and Turkey, Egypt, John Ging, Middle East and Iran, Mohamed
Hussein Tantawi, Mustafa Bakri, Riyad Assad, Saad El-Katatni, Shaikh Rashid
bin Abdulla Al Khalifa, Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, Syria

*Protest in Maarat Harma in Idlib Province this morning*

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVxiuJyUXcE&feature=player_embedded

*See also Syria Feature: Snapshots from
Aleppo<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/6/6/syria-feature-snapshots-from-aleppo-rovera-and-hanano.html>
Russia Audio Feature: Moscow's Manoeuvres Around the World --- Scott Lucas
with Monocle 
24<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/6/6/russia-audio-feature-moscows-manoeuvres-around-the-world-sco.html>
Turkey Live Coverage (6 June): Erdogan Chides Israel; A Meeting on the
Kurdish 
Issue<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/6/6/turkey-live-coverage-6-june-erdogan-chides-israel-a-meeting.html>
Tuesday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: From Houla to
Douma<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/6/5/syria-and-beyond-live-coverage-from-houla-to-douma.html>
*
 ------------------------------

2202 GMT: *Syria.* There are widespread reports of violence tonight, in
nearly every region of Syria. Despite the fact that the number may rise,
the Local Coordinating Committees, a network of activists, report that at
least 140 people have been
killed<http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=475056745854800&set=a.221856221174855.74557.217848338242310&type=1>,
including them ore than 70 reportedly killed in a single village in Hama
province:

92 in Hama (35 martyrs from one family, the youngest victim was a 3 month
old baby), 15 in Latakia, 11 in Idlib, 12 in Homs, 5 in Deir Ezzor, 2
martyrs in Damascus Suburbs,and 1 in Daraa.

2152 GMT: *Syria.* *The blogger **Brown Moses offers a good
translation*<http://brown-moses.blogspot.com/2012/06/syria-qubair-massacre.html>
* of an opposition Facebook page we cited earlier. This is the most
complete detail of the attack on Qubair village that we have seen yet:*

*Hama Countryside | al-Qubair Farm near Ma'arzaf Village | Details of the
Massacre Ma'arzaf village lies about 20 km west of Hama city and 2 km south
of the city of Mharde. al-Qubair is considered to be a residential area
south of Ma'arzaf with about 25 houses where members of the al-Yateem,
al-Farees and 'Alwan families live.*

*At around 2 p.m., 3 T-72 tanks moved from the direction of al-Majdal
village and Aseela village towards Ma'arzaf and began shelling Ma'arzaf and
al-Qubair, another small village whose residents are mostly from the
al-Yateem family.*

*After about an hour, several cars and buses carrying shabiha (regime
thugs) from al-Aseela village (which is a regime loyalist village) stormed
al-Qubair and began destroying houses, slaughtering residents and burning
their corpses.*

*Among the casualties is a woman from the Qastal family, who was killed
with all her children 35 people from al-Yateem family were killed*

*Some members of the 'Alwan family were killed as a result of injuries
sustained by the shelling, as the supplies needed to care for them were not
available.*

*Knives were used to summarily executed many women and children.*

*Many houses were completely destroyed during the shelling by Assad regime
tanks, Shabiha kidnapped the bodies of many men. At this point, about 78
martyrs have been accounted for and identified by name and some corpses
were burned by the shabiha.*

*As we've noted below, the incident is still unconfirmed, and is likely to
stay that way at least until morning. Hopefully the UN dispatches UN
observers immediately to confirm as much of the story as possible.*

*That said, there are indications that the report is real. First of all,
this level of detail will eventually make this story easier to verify.
Secondly, these details decrease the chance that this is some rumor gone
horribly wrong.*

*Regardless, news of the claimed massacre has spread, and contacts indicate
that there are widespread protests across the country in solidarity with
those killed in Qubair and the rest if Hama province.*

2117 GMT: *Syria. Editor's note -* A few notes of caution on these recent
reports. The LCCS is typically reliable because they work to confirm
reports, and there have been reports of burned bodies and many deaths in
Kafer Zita, north of Qubair where the current massacre is being claimed.
We're confused as to whether both cities were hit hard today, or whether
the reports are confused. It's also possible that "Kafer Zita" is being
used to describe the countryside in the area, not just the town itself
(Syria often employs a unique brand of geography that is very hard to
follow).

Compounding this problem is the rural location of these towns and villages
- few activists are familiar with the area, and fewer residents are in the
area to report and confirm details.

Still, the entire Twitterverse, and many Main Stream news agencies, are
reporting the massacre. We do believe, based on information we've received,
that the death toll in the Hama area is very high.

2109 GMT: *Syria.* Information is trickling out about what is already being
called the Qubair massacre near Hama. So far, however, we should stress
that much of the information is unconfirmed. Qubair is a small village in a
rural area, so there are not enough people in the area to provide adequate
confirmation yet. However, the amount of details about the event add some
credence to the reports.

This claim is the latest to make it to Twitter:

 NMSyria @*NMSyria* <https://twitter.com/NMSyria>

35 members of the al-Yateem family were killed. Their name in English means
"The Orphans". The irony is dreadful...
#*QubairMassacre*<https://twitter.com/search/%23QubairMassacre>
6 Jun 12 <https://twitter.com/NMSyria/statuses/210476864022659072>

2103 GMT: *Syria.* An opposition Facebook
page<https://www.facebook.com/Hama.Revolution/posts/327850163956605>offers
more details about in the village of Al Qubair (which
we believe is 
here<https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=215253448853172848529.0004c1cdef8024e80267c&msa=0&ll=35.188961,36.511688&spn=0.196127,0.363579&iwloc=0004c1d3ffc1c987f7195>).
According to the report, 3 regime tanks rolled into the village at around 2
PM and began shelling. When they were done, plain-clothed "shabiha" raided
the village, killing an entire family and burning some of the bodies.

Another blogger, *Brown
Moses*<http://brown-moses.blogspot.com/2012/06/syria-qubair-massacre.html>,
is live-blogging the event and provides these reports from contacts on
Twitter:

Al-Qubair is a tiny farm with a population of 130. 78 of the 130 were
slaughtered today, including 20 children & 35 women. #QubairMassacre 30+ of
those killed in #QubairMassacre were burned alive. The rest were either
shot at or slaughtered with knives...

via Mohammed Sarmini <https://twitter.com/#!/mohsarmini> - Among the
killed, there were 20 kids of 2 years old or less, and 20 women#syria

A new massacre in Al Qubeer Farm in the rural areas of Hama, The thugs of
Assad raided today the Qubeer Farm#syria#hamah

20 km to the west of Mohardeh in the rural area of Hama. They’ve committed
a horrible brutal massacre#syria#hamah

they’ve killed around 100 people with knives and burned some alive. Among
the killed, there are 20 kids of 2 years old or less; and 20 women

Among the killed, there were 20 kids (2 years old or less); and 20 women.

2022 GMT: *Syria.* A Massive escalation in the
violence<http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=475015339192274&set=a.221856221174855.74557.217848338242310&type=1>in
Syria. The LCC reports:

The number of martyrs has risen to 129 thus far, including women and
children slaughtered during the fierce regime shelling in different areas
of Hama. 86 in Hama (35 martyrs from one family), 14 in Latakia, 11 in
Idlib, 10 in Homs, 5 in Deir Ezzor, 1 in Daraa and Damascus Suburbs.

All the numbers are high, with significant violence in Lattakia, Idlib,
Homs, and Deir Ez Zor.

But tomorrow's headline belongs to Hama. The majority of the violence was
in Kafer 
Zita<https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=215253448853172848529.0004c1cdef8024e80267c&msa=0&iwloc=0004c1cfad4f61441c337>,
where many shells fell, and fires were reportedly set by "Shabiha,"
pro-regime gangs. This video shows some of the destruction, and one of the
bodies of the burned:



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xc6TjnDQ_uA&feature=player_embedded


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNSIvrrO2MI&feature=player_embedded



Several more 
videos<https://www.facebook.com/Hama.English.News/posts/325516770860725>shows
shells falling after dark as well.

However, the LCCS reports that scores have been killed elsewhere outside
the 
city<http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=475014059192402&set=a.221856221174855.74557.217848338242310&type=1>as
well tonight:

Hama: The number of martyrs in the city today has reached 86 martyrs. 78 of
them are from the Qubeir massacre (near Maarzaf), 35 of whom are from one
family, half of them are women and children.

Maarzaf is 
here<https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=215253448853172848529.0004c1cdef8024e80267c&msa=0&ll=35.155846,36.826172&spn=0.78482,1.454315&iwloc=0004c1d38409e82ad3696>,
a village not far from the city.

The full extent of the damage in Hama is not yet known, however. If these
numbers are accurate, the number of dead there will likely continue to rise
as shells fall and more damage is discovered.

2003 GMT: *Syria.* A significant claim - an activist, "Anonymous Syria,"
shares a video claiming to show a significant victory for the Free Syrian
Army:

 AnonymousSyria @*AnonymousSyria* <https://twitter.com/AnonymousSyria>

#*FSA* <https://twitter.com/search/%23FSA> controls a military checkpoint
in #*Damascus* <https://twitter.com/search/%23Damascus> countryside & takes
tanks & armored vehicles & kills many y2u.be/bSlS5du3m1M<http://t.co/zgSKx974>
#*Syria* <https://twitter.com/search/%23Syria>
6 Jun 12 <https://twitter.com/AnonymousSyria/statuses/210454025282396160>

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=bSlS5du3m1M


 What do we know about the video? Two brigades of the Syrian Army claim to
be involved in the raids - both say their names and both are mentioned in
the description: The Abu Bakr al-Saddik Brigade and the Tariq ibn Ziyad
Brigade. Also, today's date is mentioned, and the fighters claim they
launched the attack as retaliation for the Houla massacre.

As far as we can tell, this video is likely legitimate, but it cannot be
confirmed.

If the Free Syrian Army has captured at least 2 armored vehicles and
destroyed at least another, that adds significant fire power to their small
arsenal. More importantly, it is another sign that though the FSA is
massively outnumbered and significantly outgunned, it is still capable of
inflicting significant damage on the Assad military.

1823 GMT: *Syria.* Once again, artillery shells are reportedly flying over
the University of Aleppo Campus. According to the
LCC<http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=474934205867054&set=a.221856221174855.74557.217848338242310&type=1>,
artillery pieces at the Military
Academy<https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=215253448853172848529.0004c1cdef8024e80267c&msa=0&ll=36.186936,37.132072&spn=0.193688,0.363579&iwloc=0004c1d1d9354a6a55c7d>have
opened fire, and the shells are reportedly falling on the northern
suburb of 
Hayyan<https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=215253448853172848529.0004c1cdef8024e80267c&msa=0&ll=36.311252,37.102547&spn=0.19338,0.363579&iwloc=0004c1d1d74e1dff76c5f>.
The flight path of those shells is nearly directly over the top of the
University of Aleppo, site of widespread protests, and an area that was
raided earlier by police.

This matches patterns seen last night, disquieting many activists.

1745 GMT: *Syria.* This video was reportedly taken in Al
Haffeh<https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=215253448853172848529.0004c1cdef8024e80267c&msa=0&ll=35.598415,36.036186&spn=0.195134,0.363579&iwloc=0004c1cdef84d58dc5e24>,
Lattakia, showing smoke rising after shells landed inside the town:

More video claiming to show the bombardment of Homs, this time the
Hamidiyah district:

1625 GMT: *Syria.* Earlier (see the must-watch video on update 1237
GMT<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/6/6/syria-and-beyond-live-coverage-the-spread-of-the-conflict.html#1237>),
we reported that shells had fallen in the Khalidiyeh district of Homs, and
a building had fallen as a result. Now, activists report that the shelling
continues, despite the approach of nightfall:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8hLgRUOu7o&feature=player_embedded

**

1542 GMT: *Syria.* According to the LCCS, 42 people have been killed so far
across Syria:

9 martyrs were reported in Lattakia, 10 in Homs, 5 in Deir Ezzor, 8 in
Hama, 6 in Idlib, 2 in Aleppo, 1 in Daraa, and 1 in the Damascus Suburbs.

The deaths in Hama are new, and we're seeking details. However, the LCCS
has also posted a disturbing video showing burnt
bodies<http://www.facebook.com/LCCSy/posts/310968062324809>in what it
is calling "another massacre" in Kafr
Zita<https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=215253448853172848529.0004c1cdef8024e80267c&msa=0&ll=35.371695,36.620865&spn=0.391369,0.727158&iwloc=0004c1cfad4f61441c337>
.

1532 GMT: *Syria.* The latest on the international response --- US
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has cast serious doubt about Russia's
efforts to negotiate a political solution to the crisis in Syria if a
Yemen-style deal was brokered with Russia and Iran playing major roles.
Clinton stated that it was hard to imagine a country like Iran, whom she
accused of playing a role in inciting the violence, as a partner in the
possible solution. Or, as she phrased
it<http://uk.news.yahoo.com/clinton-cool-russian-call-syria-meeting-134708757.html;_ylt=Ahq4WIYMSjByF6HES.KYbbHp0Mh_;_ylu=X3oDMTN1dGVnM3VlBG1pdANDb2xsZWN0aW9uIEp1bWJvdHJvbgRwa2cDMWM4ODBiZGMtYzRjMS0zNDU0LTk2MmMtOGQ0NWMyZDA3YjE0BHBvcwMxBHNlYwNqdW1ib3Ryb24EdmVyAzE0MjkxMGMwLWFmZTYtMTFlMS1iYzVmLTNlNWI0MDgxZTRiMA--;_ylg=X3oDMTFlMTluMDVoBGludGwDZ2IEbGFuZwNlbi1nYgRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdAMEcHQDc2VjdGlvbnM-;_ylv=3>,
"it's a little hard to imagine inviting a country that is stage-managing
Assad regime's assault on its people".

The US also 
signaled<http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/geithner-warn-syria-action-16505948#.T890-NVYv4S>that
it will be increasing economic sanctions against Syria and working
with the international community to seek some sort of Yemen-style
transition:

In recent days, Clinton has sought to open the door to a compromise with
Russia, calling Assad's ouster from power a necessary outcome of any
political transition but not necessarily a "precondition."

The nuance suggests the U.S. is willing to allow Assad to hang on in power
for part of a structured regime change. But the administration is also
making it clear that Assad's eventual departure must be agreed on by all
parties as part of the transition, and that it cannot accept Russian ideas
about promoting reform or greater dialogue in Syria as a substitute for
true political change.

The US strategy is perhaps defined by these statements. The US will
continue to ramp up economic pressure on the Assad regime, increasing the
danger that it will be unable to afford its crackdown against a protest
movement and a growing insurgency. At the same time, it will negotiate the
removal of the Assad regime --- on its own terms, not on Iran's.

If such an effort is to succeed, it will require Russia's assistance, so
Washington is willing to accept some of Moscow's concerns. At the same
time, however, Russia will be under increased pressure to lean on the Assad
regime while keeping Iran out of the manoeuvres.

1506 GMT: *Syria.* Multiple opposition Facebook pages and Twitter accounts
have reported that students were arrested and teargas fired on the campus
of Aleppo University today. Several videos, posted by different Youtube
channels and potentially filmed by two different sources, claim to show the
raid. Both appear to visually match Aleppo University:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkMaMjlKNiI&feature=player_embedded
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=rPgcNuiVO0g



1404 GMT: *Syria.* CNN provides this fascinating and important
look<http://www.cnn.com/video/?/video/world/2012/06/06/damon-syria-sniper-alley.cnn#/video/politics/2012/06/06/early-wisconsin-barrett-slapped.cnn>at
the battle between the Free Syrian Army and Assad forces in the
Khalidiya district of Homs. The video shows behind-the-scenes footage of
the FSA's campaign to halt advances by the Syrian army, while it gives
insight into the nature of the battles and the motives behind them:

1351 GMT: *Syria.* According to the LCC, the number of dead in Syria
continues to rise. As of now they report to have confirmed 23 deaths
nationwide<http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=474808899212918&set=a.221856221174855.74557.217848338242310&type=1>
:

8 martyrs in Lattakia, 6 martyrs in Homs, 5 martyrs in Deir Ezzor, 2
martyrs in Hama, 1 martyr in Idlib, and 1 martyr in Daraa.

Striking is the sudden rise of deaths in Lattakia. Reports are circulating
that the town of Al
Hassah<https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=215253448853172848529.0004c1cdef8024e80267c&msa=0&ll=35.554016,36.050949&spn=0.390482,0.727158&iwloc=0004c1cdef84d58dc5e24>,
in eastern Lattakia, is once again the site of heavy fighting between
insurgent fighters and the Syrian military. Artillery and air strikes have
been reported, as has heavy sniper fire, though we're not yet able to
confirm those reports.

1332 GMT: *Syria.* It's all about the economy. One of the primary
motivators for unrest in Syria has been the regime's inability to cope with
the glaring economic issues facing the country, including rising prices and
the high unemployment rate. On the other hand, now that the nation is
facing a crisis, and the Syrian government is bleeding money, the failing
economy threatens to strangle the Assad regime (and, likely, many innocent
Syrians who can no longer afford to pay for basic necessities.

As such, *The Guardian*
discovers<http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middle-east-live/2012/jun/06/syria-egypt#block-22>an
interesting figure - that according to the regime's own numbers (
Arabic <http://www.cbssyr.org/>) the inflation rate in April was 31.45%.

1322 GMT: *Bahrain.* More on the arrest of Nabeel Rajab.

Rajab has been ordered by the General Prosecutor to serve a 7 day
term<https://twitter.com/SAIDYOUSIF/status/210347956019281920>in
prison. Scott Lucas adds that the previous charges involved
allegations
made over Twitter, and charges related to holding an illegal march.

While the prison term is related to previous charges, the timing of the
incident is curious. Clearly, the Bahraini government is turning up the
heat on the activists who are getting the most attention, particularly the
ones who make it to international television news broadcasts, either as
guests or because their Tweets were featured.

1304 GMT: *Bahrain.* Activists are reporting that prominent human rights
campaigner Nabeel Rajab has once again been arrested. This prominent
activist thinks he knows why, and his allegations certainly match patterns
we've already seen develop over the last 2 days:

 S.Yousif Almuhafda @*SAIDYOUSIF* <https://twitter.com/SAIDYOUSIF>

#*Bahrain* <https://twitter.com/search/%23Bahrain> After
@*NABEELRAJAB*<https://twitter.com/NABEELRAJAB>said to
@*AJStream* <https://twitter.com/AJStream> the regime is lying &not serious
about the dialogue, P.Prosecution detains him for 7 days
6 Jun 12 <https://twitter.com/SAIDYOUSIF/statuses/210353776782098433>

1237 GMT: *Syria.* The Local Coordinating Committees report that 16 people
have been killed so far
today<http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=474796909214117&set=a.221856221174855.74557.217848338242310&type=1>by
regime loyalists or security forces:

6 martyrs in Homs, 5 martyrs in Deir Ezzor, 2 martyrs in Hama, 1 martyrs in
Lattakia, 1 martyr in Idlib, and 1 martyr in Daraa.

We've been chasing some rumors of clashes between the Free Syrian Army and
Assad loyal forces in the Deir Ez Zor area, so the slightly elevated death
toll there is somewhat curious.

But so far the most dramatic activist
report<http://www.facebook.com/LCCSy/posts/451925014835807>appears to
be this building, reportedly 12 stories high, that collapsed in
the Khalidiya district of Homs, the result of shelling:

James Miller takes over today's live coverage, with thanks to the
hard-working Scott Lucas for getting us through to the afternoon.

1140 GMT: *Tunisia.* The Ministry of Education has issued a
decree<http://www.tunisia-live.net/2012/06/04/tunisian-ministry-of-education-niqab-banned-from-baccalaureate-exam/>banning
students, sitting for next week’s baccalaureate examination, from
covering their faces with the niqab, the veil worn by women that covers the
face except for the eyes.

The Ministry said this would "ensure the candidate’s identity and avoid any
misunderstanding which could lead to accusations of cheating and
misbehavior”.

1130 GMT: *Libya.* *The Libya Herald* provides new
information<http://www.libyaherald.com/exclusive-new-details-emerge-about-tripoli-airport-siege-as-libya-herald-gains-access-to-metiga-airbase/>and
opens up more mysteries about Monday's temporary occupation of
Tripoli's airport by the Al-Awfia Brigade from Tarhouna.

The brigade had occupied the airport in retaliation for the abduction of
its commander, Abu-Alija Habshi, a day earlier.

The *Herald* reports that just before his kidnapping, Habshi had left
Tarhouna for Tripoli with the intention of handing over two of his
brigade’s tanks to the Ministry of Defence. However, he was stopped at a
government checkpoint on the approach to Tripoli and informed that the
tanks could not be brought into the capital without relevant documentation
from the military council in Tarhouna.

Having left the tanks at the checkpoint where they were stopped, Habshi
headed back to Tarhouna appently to collect the documentation but was
abducted not far away on the same road.

This has fed speculation has emerged that the Supreme Security Committee
(SSC) was responsible for the kidnapping, after having been informed of
Habshi’s whereabouts and his intentions by the guards at the checkpoint.

The SSC has denied that it had anything to do with Habshi’s disappearance,
and has said that it is currently looking for those responsible.

1125 GMT: *Egypt.* Egyptian foreign reserves rose $302 million in
May<http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/44020/Business/Economy/BREAKING-Egypt-foreign-reserves-up--million-by-end.aspx>to
reach $15.52 billion, their second consecutive monthly increase after
a
year of decline.

Just before the January 2011 uprising that unseated president Hosni
Mubarak, the country's reserves were close to $36 billion.

1120 GMT: *Syria.* There have been clashes between Syrian troops and
residents<http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/44012/World/Region/Syrian-army-and-Lebanese-clash-at-border-security-.aspx>in
the border town of Arsal in eastern Lebanon after a Lebanese man was
killed and two wounded at dawn, according to a security source.

The source said rocket-propelled grenades and automatic weapons were fired
during the fighting, which began after Syrian security forces intercepted a
group of arms smugglers crossing into Syria in the town in the Bekaa Valley.

1105 GMT: *Syria.* It looks like Russia's shift on Syria --- indicating on
Tuesday that it could accept a solution without a President Assad and
proposing today (see 1050 GMT) that a "broader international meeting" be
convened, including Turkey and Iran --- is part of an initiative including
other countries. An unnamed diplomat has fed the story to David Ignatius of
*The Washington
Post*<http://mobile.washingtonpost.com/rss.jsp;jsessionid=37EC0E647B60696B13127753E7DFB868?rssid=4223411&item=http%3a%2f%2fwww.washingtonpost.com%2fopinions%2fannans-new-road-map-for-peace-in-syria%2f2012%2f06%2f05%2fgJQAMuDiGV_mobile.mobile&cid=-1&spf=1>
:

*

[United Nations] Kofi Annan is tinkering with a radical idea for reviving
his moribund peace plan for Syria --- a road map for political transition
there that would be negotiated through a “contact group” that could
include, among other nations, Russia and Iran....

The reason Annan is said to be considering this unconventional approach is
that nothing else has worked. The United States and its key Western allies
don’t want to intervene militarily, fearing that this could produce a
highly unpredictable and unstable outcome. The West wants Russia to broker
a deal, but so far President Vladimir Putin hasn’t seen enough pragmatic
benefit to embrace this course.

To break the deadlock, Annan would create his contact group, composed of
the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council (Britain, China, France,
Russia and the United States), plus Saudi Arabia and perhaps Qatar to
represent the Arab League, and Turkey and Iran. The idea is to bring
together the countries with most influence on the situation.

This unwieldy group would then draft a transition plan and take it to Assad
and the Syrian opposition. This road map would call for a presidential
election to choose Assad’s successor, plus a parliamentary ballot and a new
constitution — with a timeline for achieving these milestones.

Assad would presumably depart for Russia, which is said to have offered him
exile; the Syrian dictator is rumored to have transferred $6 billion in
Syrian reserves to Moscow already. Under this scenario, Assad presumably
could avoid international prosecution for war crimes. Iran is also said to
have offered exile to Assad and his family.

To contain the bloodletting that would follow Assad’s ouster, Annan is said
to favor a detailed plan for reforming the security forces, similar to
reforms in Eastern Europe after the fall of communism.

*

1050 GMT: *Syria.* Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, during the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Beijing, has called for an
international 
meeting<http://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/russia-wants-broad-meeting-syria-support-annan-plan-092822696.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter>on
the Syrian crisis, including Iran and Turkey, to bolster the peace
plan
of United Nations envoy Kofi Annan.

Lavrov made the comments while in Beijing.

1030 GMT: *Syria.* More from our opening entry on the spread of the
conflict, specifically, operations by regime military in the Lattakia
area....

The Local Coordination Committees of Syria claim, "Shelling of the
villages<https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=474696315890843&set=a.221856221174855.74557.217848338242310&type=1>of
Kanda, Kabani, Aako and most villages of Jabal Aako with helicopters."

Syrian activists claim casualties:

  Razan Saffour @*RazanSpeaks* <https://twitter.com/RazanSpeaks>

11 martyrs in #*Syria* <https://twitter.com/search/%23Syria> today already,
most of them from Lattakia. Allah 3alek ya Bashar.
6 Jun 12 <https://twitter.com/RazanSpeaks/statuses/210297111466622976>

   ♕ The 47th ♕ @*THE_47th* <https://twitter.com/THE_47th>

Alarabiya BRK: 15 are killed as Assad helicopters bomb Akrad Mountains
(Kurdish Mountains).
6 Jun 12 <https://twitter.com/THE_47th/statuses/210283441814642688>

 The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights claims army reinforcements arrived
at 
dawn,<http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/06/06/uk-syria-crisis-idUKBRE84S0P320120606>killing
an insurgent captain in the town of Selma and six civilians in
Haffeh.

0900 GMT: *Syria.* President Assad has named Riyad
Hijab<http://www.france24.com/en/20120606-syria-assad-hijab-new-government-agriculture-minister-uprising-un-parliament>as
the new Prime Minister, asking him to form a government.

Hijab was Minister of Agriculture. He replaces Adel Safar, who was
appointed in April last year shortly after the revolt began.

0739 GMT: *Egypt.* The ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces has set a
48-hour 
deadline<http://news.yahoo.com/egypt-rulers-demand-constitution-panel-48-hours-173303382.html>for
political parties to complete the formation of a 100-member panel to
write a new Constitution. If this is not done, the SCAF said it will draw
up its own blueprint.

Lawmaker Mustafa Bakri outlined the ultimatum after representatives of 18
parties and independent lawmakers met with the head of the SCAF, Field
Marshal Hussein Tantawi, on Tuesday. The process has been deadlocked in a
dispute over the composition of the body, with secular and liberal members
claiming that the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party was trying
to stack the panel with its members.

Several parties boycotted the Tuesday meeting, including the FJP. The
Party's Saad el-Katatni, who is Speaker of Parliament, declared, "No one
can strip the parliament of its authority to issue legislation or laws.

Yasser Ali, a spokesman for Mohammed Morsi, the Brotherhood's candidate in
the Presidential run-off in mid-June, said that if the SCAF proceeded, "It
will be hijacking legislative authority from Parliament....We won't
recognize whatever comes from the military council."

0708 GMT: *Bahrain.* The Minister of Interior, Shaikh Rashid bin Abdulla Al
Khalifa, has given "a wide-ranging, extremely frank
interview<http://www.policemc.gov.bh/en/news_details.aspx?type=1&articleId=13227>"
to a pro-regime newspaper. Typical statement: "Bahrain will never combat
terrorism with terrorism --- and totally rejects killings and torture."

0518 GMT: *Syria.* Carrot-and-stick from the Assad regime on Tuesday
--- it agreed
to let aid workers into the
country<http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2012/06/201265131251913374.html>while
expelling the diplomats of 17 countries.

The aid workers will initially be based in Homs, Daraa, Idlib, and Deir Ez
Zor.

John Ging of the United Nations Office for the Co-ordination of
Humanitarian Affairs said UN teams already have been sent to scout the
areas. He added, ""Whether this is a breakthrough or not will be evident in
the coming days and weeks, and it will be measured not in rhetorics, not in
agreements, but in action on the ground."

0500 GMT: *Syria.* Yesterday we opened by noting both the mass killing on
25 May in Houla in Homs Province and this week's fighting in the Damacus
suburb of Douma. As Tuesday developed, however, we had to watch other
locations.

A note from the Local Co-ordination Committees of Syria that 10 people had
been killed by security forces in Lattakia raised an eyebrow. The coastal
area is generally seen as supportive of the Assad regime and, although we
have seen small protests there this spring, we have not anticipated
significant violence.

Then there was the incident last night in Aleppo, Syria's largest city,
where the military fired shells over the campus of Aleppo University into
the northern suburb of Anadan. EA's James Miller caught the lesson: "The
shelling started at a time where there were large protests at Aleppo
University<https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=215253448853172848529.0004c1b8fb3b9710dbf58&msa=0&ll=36.216856,37.113876&spn=0.096807,0.181789&iwloc=0004c1bf69d0860b6918a>
 and in the Salahadine
district<https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=215253448853172848529.0004c1b8fb3b9710dbf58&msa=0&ll=36.192754,37.127953&spn=0.096837,0.181789&iwloc=0004c1bf67977794fef5d>.
These shells would have been travelling directly over the University, a
clear message to the entire city, particularly the students, that the
regime will no longer tolerate large protests."

That's a pretty stark message, given that Aleppo throughout 2011, with its
economic and political ties to Assad, was not considered a site of
resistance.
Article originally appeared on EA WorldView (http://www.enduringamerica.com/).


 Published on *Al Akhbar English* (http://english.al-akhbar.com)

Home <http://english.al-akhbar.com/> > Hollow Responses to Houla Massacre
------------------------------
Hollow Responses to Houla Massacre
 A handout picture released by the Syrian opposition's Shaam News Network
on 1 June 2012 shows graffiti sprayed on the back of a United Nations
vehicle reading in Arabic: "Down with Bashar" referring to Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad. Assad on June 3 dismissed allegations that his government
had a hand in the Houla massacre and accused foreign-backed forces of
plotting to destroy Syria. (Photo: AFP PHOTO / HO / SHAAM NEWS NETWORK)

By: Karl Sharro <http://english.al-akhbar.com/author/karl-sharro> [1]

Published Tuesday, June 5, 2012

The responses to the tragic Houla massacre exposed the disorientation of
all parties involved in the Syrian uprising, both within the country and
outside. It is becoming clear by now how little control any of those actors
can exercise over the course of events, highlighting the self-consuming and
open-ended nature of the conflict in Syria. While there are several common
interpretations in circulation, ranging from serious analysis to crackpot
theories, it is time to confront the possibility that improvisation is the
order of the day. Tragically, this signifies a protracted bloody struggle
that will claim even more innocent lives.
The main problem with Annan’s plan, is not its inefficacy, but the fact
that it represents a willingness to internationalize the Syrian conflict.
The slow response of the United Nations’ observers to the Houla massacre
clearly represented this state of impotence. The Kofi Annan ‘peace plan’
itself has become a symbol for the absence of political control, having
been revealed as a dysfunctional initiative that had virtually no impact on
the ground. The plan was a misconceived proposal that didn’t address the
Syrian people’s aspiration for change, aiming instead for a superficial
solution that would fall far short from resolving the political conflict.

The main problem with Annan’s plan, however, is not its inefficacy, but the
fact that it represents a willingness to internationalize the Syrian
conflict. Both the regime and the opposition accepted the terms of the
agreement knowing that the plan would maintain the conditions of their
irrevocable differences while leaving them with less control over the
outcome.

While many commentators interpreted this acceptance as a cynical move,
particularly on the part of the regime, in effect there is no denying that
it was a major step towards relinquishing responsibility.

The immediate aftermath of the Houla massacre confirmed this tendency. The
Syrian government refused to take responsibility for a massacre that was
committed while its military units were shelling villages in the area.
Government supporters attempted to deny responsibility for the massacre by
arguing that it would stand to lose from the consequences. Some went on to
accuse the Free Syrian Army (FSA) of staging the massacre to draw
international support and discredit the government. The naivety of this
logic ignores the extent to which events on the ground are increasingly
becoming arbitrary in nature as events spiral out of control.
The presence and scale of activities of the Shabiha across Syria is not a
secret
Furthermore, this logic ignores that the culpability of the Assad regime
starts with the recruitment and arming of the Shabiha militia. The presence
and scale of activities of the Shabiha across Syria is not a secret, nor is
the fact that its members are recruited almost exclusively from the Alawi
minority.

There is only one explanation for the presence of the Shabiha: it would not
balk at carrying out operations that the regular Syrian army would be more
resistant to and would lead to further dissention among its ranks.

By letting the Shabiha loose, the Syrian regime has created the conditions
for atrocities, especially in mixed areas, and it was only a matter of time
that sectarian massacres reminiscent of the Lebanese Civil War would happen.

The creation of this militia was one of the early decisions that enhanced
the sectarian dynamics of the conflict. The regime relinquished any claim
to representing state authority and ultimately acted in a way that would
undermine its overall control. The army’s wide-scale involvement in
shelling civilian areas is also incriminating however, it would be
misleading to assume that there’s a clear division of labor between the
role of the Shabiha and the regular army.

The response of the opposition leadership to the Houla massacre was also
far from coherent. The Syrian National Council (SNC) fell back onto its
demands for international intervention, despite the fact that such
intervention seems to be unlikely for now and that these requests have
alienated many Syrians that do not support attacks on their country. The
SNC is unwittingly exacerbating its disconnection from the Syrian people
and revealing its paucity of ideas for change.

In parallel, reports have started to emerge of splits within the FSA,
partially in response to its clumsy tactics that are leading to further
civilian casualties while not yielding any success.

The presence of the FSA as a separate entity from the SNC and other
opposition groups is itself revealing of a fundamental flaw within the
anti-regime forces. An autonomous armed group devoid of clear political
leadership not only suffers from the inability to formulate clear strategy
and tactics, it also increases the risk of undisciplined outbreaks of
violence that are very damaging.
The expulsion of Syrian envoys from several Western countries as a response
to the Houla massacre clearly revealed how the US and its allies are more
interested in moral posturing rather than in developing a coherent attitude
to the Syrian crisis.
The improvised nature of how both the regime and the opposition are
operating is mirrored by the regional and international players that are
involved directly or indirectly. While it is possible to argue that the
Russia’s position is driven by a desire to protect its geopolitical
interests, at the expense of frustrating the Syrian people’s aspirations,
it is hard to say the same of the US and other Western countries. In fact,
if the West has a clear policy on Syria it’s certainly doing an excellent
job of keeping it very well concealed.

The expulsion of Syrian envoys from several Western countries as a response
to the Houla massacre clearly revealed how the US and its allies are more
interested in moral posturing rather than in developing a coherent attitude
to the Syrian crisis. So far, their involvement has been a series of minute
incremental steps that seem to be designed exclusively for the management
of public opinion rather than identifying likely outcomes and working
towards them.

While foreign intervention in any shape will only exacerbate the situation
in Syria and take the resolution away from the hands of the Syrian people
themselves, it is important to understand the unprincipled and improvised
nature of Western meddling. The ‘anti-imperialist’ discourse maintains that
the West is looking for a pretext to intervene militarily in Syria but
fails to explain why such intervention has not materialized even after a
massacre of the magnitude and impact of that at Houla.

The reality is that those who convinced themselves that there is an
‘American plan’ for the Middle East have failed to understand the
arbitrary, and often self-defeating, nature of US intervention in the
region during the last decade. But it’s a confusion that mirrors what
prevails in Western policy circles, where geopolitical interests are now
routinely compromised for the sake of esoteric interests such as shoring up
moral authority.

Of course, a morally inspired foreign policy would be a good thing, but
what we are witnessing is a cynical attempt at claiming moral authority
without being guided by it. (We only need to look at the hypocritical
stance of leaders like Blair and Sarkozy towards Gaddafi to understand
that.)

*As it stands, the West’s stance towards Syria is uninspired and unfocused.
Far from having a clear plan, let alone a grand conspiracy, Western nations
are trudging along with no clear sense of purpose. The downside of this is
that the same erratic and unpredictable patterns of Iraq and Libya could
re-emerge unexpectedly.*


The only constant in all of this is the desire of the Syrian people for
change, and their unrelenting protests and demands despite the huge risks
they face.
While the US administration has so far resisted the idea of military
intervention, French President Francois Hollande did not rule it out and
many in the US military and Republicans have been more vocal in advocating
for this option. The turnaround might be more abrupt than we expect.

After the Houla massacre, we started to hear a lot about tipping and
turning points in Syria. That may or may not be true, but it revealed a
consensus about how unpredictable the situation is, most likely as a
recognition of how little control anyone involved can exercise.

The only constant in all of this is the desire of the Syrian people for
change, and their unrelenting protests and demands despite the huge risks
they face. They deserve to be masters of their own fate.

*Karl Sharro is a Middle East political commentator and blogger at Karl
reMarks <http://karlremarks.blogspot.co.uk/> [2] and on Twitter
@KarlreMarks<https://twitter.com/#!/karlremarks>
[3].*

*The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect Al-Akhbar's
editorial policy.*


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]



------------------------------------

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